Hillary's Weakness in the West

[Devils30]

If Florida has a D+ PVI it won't matter in the end. I think Colorado is winnable for Hillary but obviously it will take resources. Add 4-5 points to her polls there too to adjust for 1) the fact they poll a midterm electorate, 2) CO polls natural GOP bias

[Devils30]

I guess technically the GOP CAN win without Florida, just very unlikely. If you give the GOP candidate Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin and New Hampshire it still leaves him 4 electoral votes short at 266. Of course Pennsylvania would be a top target but that's another state Hillary clearly would be stronger in than Obama relatively. Add to that, Virginia trending D...Christie could make gains with whites in NoVA but it's tough to see any of the others. NC could also be a GOP problem, like northern FL many parts of it have maxed out with GOP white voters and even a slight swing of rural voters to Hillary would win it.

[Devils30]

Things tend to sort themselves out once the campaign gets going. Remember when NH looked like an R+5 state until Romney left? Then it reverted to its normal voting pattern at around D+1. Unless the GOP wins the white vote like 58-42 they can forget about CO.