Official Michigan Megathread

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I figured it was about time to start this for Michigan, since a number of states already have it.  Feel free to discuss any upcoming elections in Michigan, be it statewide, local, or ballot proposals.  I'll be looking forward to seeing what you've got!

[pbrower2a]

Michigan has lots of pollsters -- bad pollsters -- who operate only in Michigan and can't be compared for performance in other states that have some demographic similarities (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio). So beware. Michigan should be interesting due to a controversial Governor, an open Senate seat, and plenty of marginal R Congressional Representatives. 

[IceSpear]

It would be nice if PPP polled Michigan again, they haven't since early June. I'm curious if the Snyder surge actually exists, and if so, how big it really is.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm curious if the Snyder surge actually exists, and if so, how big it really is.

[Obscure]

It would be nice if PPP polled Michigan again, they haven't since early June. I'm curious if the Snyder surge actually exists, and if so, how big it really is.

Trust me, it does. Though Right-to-work caused his approval to drop in the short term, he's recovered from it. Surprisingly enough, his action on Detroit has actually gained him approval. Not to mention there isn't a single Michigander who can deny that we are much better off today than we were four years ago when Granholm was still in office. He's also quite popular with moderate democrats thanks to his cooperation in Obamacare and actions to expand medicaid. These are all things that will help him next year. Also, his opponent will be a big help to him. Hardly anybody outside of Schauer's district even know who he is. I don't think Snyder wins by a landslide like he did back in 2010, but I'd say he gets reelected by 5-6%.

[dmmidmi]

More than the Snyder surge, I'm interested to see if Santa Claus will get re-elected.

[IceSpear]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

[Obscure]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Levin remembers back in the day when Dems were the minority party and used the filibuster to block many nominations. He's not a conservative by any standards.

[IceSpear]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Levin remembers back in the day when Dems were the minority party and used the filibuster to block many nominations. He's not a conservative by any standards.

Yeah, but even he has to realize that the GOP has taken it to new and unprecedented heights under Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Levin remembers back in the day when Dems were the minority party and used the filibuster to block many nominations. He's not a conservative by any standards.

Yeah, but even he has to realize that the GOP has taken it to new and unprecedented heights under Obama.

Dubya was of course a nearly-unmitigated disaster as President. Democrats never said that they wanted President Bush to fail as President. They hoped for the best and lowered their expectations -- and still found their expectations unmet. In view his blunders on so much else, it is hardly surprising that he nominated some awful candidates for the judiciary. With respect to President Obama, how often does a Senate Minority Leader say that his first objective is to ensure that the current President be a one-term President.

Of course some judicial nominees should be blocked with a filibuster; such prevents a President from filling the judiciary with political cronies.

[Obscure]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Levin remembers back in the day when Dems were the minority party and used the filibuster to block many nominations. He's not a conservative by any standards.

Yeah, but even he has to realize that the GOP has taken it to new and unprecedented heights under Obama.

This is true. But perhaps Levin just enjoys watching these political battles since the Republicans usually end up looking foolish in these filibusters. I believe he was opposed to changing the filibuster rules much prior to his decision to retire.

[dmmidmi]

Schauer has been running a very populist campaign. Recently, this has been one of his big talking points: http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2013/11/gov_rick_snyders_office_raisin.html

So far, I don't feel like it has gained much traction, or resonated with voters.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Michigan is not a "blue state."  It's a swing state by any standard.  Remember that Gore only took it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama won solidly here in 2008 and 2012, but those were in strong Dem years nationally.

[Sol]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Michigan is not a "blue state."  It's a swing state by any standard.  Remember that Gore only took it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama won solidly here in 2008 and 2012, but those were in strong Dem years nationally.

Lolno. Michigan, at best for your party, is a lean D state, and really more safe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Michigan is not a "blue state."  It's a swing state by any standard.  Remember that Gore only took it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama won solidly here in 2008 and 2012, but those were in strong Dem years nationally.

Sure, but Kerry won by 3 while Bush won nationally by 2. So in conclusion, its 5 points more democratic than the nation, making it a Lean D state (IMO). But then again, it completely depends on how you'd define a Lean state, a Solid state, or a Swing state.

[IceSpear]

You can't call something a swing state if it never actually swings.

[dmmidmi]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Michigan is not a "blue state."  It's a swing state by any standard.  Remember that Gore only took it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama won solidly here in 2008 and 2012, but those were in strong Dem years nationally.

Over the past 20 years, Michigan has been between 3 and 5% more Democratic than the country as a whole. This means that, in order for the state to actually "swing," the GOP would have to win by Bush 41 (a "strong" GOP year nationally, by your own standard) or Obama-sized margin.

[dmmidmi]

Well, it looks like Santa Claus has a real good chance of keeping his job: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131203/POLITICS03/312030066/Benson-will-not-run-Congress?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

Benson would've easily been the strongest candidate to run in that district in a long time. I'm guessing there are simply too many Republicans in MI-11 for any Democrat to win there.

[dmmidmi]

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/msu_survey_a_year_out_rick_sny.html#incart_river_default

This is an all-around terrible poll (decimals, polling people from August-October and releasing the results in December), but Michigan State University found that The Nerd's approvals are still in the dumps.

Take it for what it's worth, which probably isn't much.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/msu_survey_a_year_out_rick_sny.html#incart_river_default

This is an all-around terrible poll (decimals, polling people from August-October and releasing the results in December), but Michigan State University found that The Nerd's approvals are still in the dumps.

Take it for what it's worth, which probably isn't much.

The poll commentary compared Rick Snyder late in 2013 to Jennifer Granholm in 2005. Granholm had approval in the thirties and subsequently won against a dilletant tycoon who promised to run Michigan like a business.

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Governor Snyder is going to face the wrath of Michigan's long-strong labor unions. They will be betting everything on defeating Republicans this time. If the unions lose, Michigan becomes a cheap-labor state that out-of-state plutocrats bleed. 2006 was a far-better year for Democrats than 2014 is likely to be for Republicans. 

I can use the poll because it won't stick. In a week or so we will have a more reliable poll from PPP.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I can use the poll because it won't stick. In a week or so we will have a more reliable poll from PPP.

If you seriously consider PPP a reliable pollster this early in a campaign, then you need your head examined.  In 2012, their polls way overstated Dem numbers all the way into the summer in several states.  They may have been accurate closer to Election Day, but that's not now.  And they've been overstating Dem numbers in their 2014 polls thus far as well.

[free my dawg]

Even if you're right all the MI-based pollsters have been horrible on Election Day. And by your logic, the only one that isn't horrible from an Election Day standpoint overestimated Republicans even greater than they overestimated Democrats, so we should throw them out too.

So yes, I'll be waiting for a more reliable poll from PPP, because compared to the rest of these polls it's a gold standard.

[free my dawg]

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

[pbrower2a]

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

The good news:

1. He is far underwater at this stage, 42-49. He would lose a re-election bid against the usual sort of challenger in the usual campaign.

2. He is running against someone not well known in much of the state. That will change as he is better known in southeastern Michigan, where the votes are.

3. His signature Right-to-Work legislation is extremely unpopular (40-47). Unions still have some political clout, and they will be loaded for bear in November.

The bad news:

The Republican is in the lead for the Senate.

At this stage it looks as if government of the Master Class, by the Master Class, and for the Master Class is on the way.

[Miles]

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

Its obviously excellent news, of course, as the union-crushing hero Snyder will thrash the white liberal Schauer! Huzzah!