Official Michigan Megathread

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The labor unions are peeved with Snyder. Whatever good he has done in Michigan  (OK -- it's the OBAMA RECOVERY, and not solely the result of Rick Snyder!) he has offended the politically-active unions with the Right to Work (for starvation wages) law. They usually begin their vote drives with the aid of large African-American activist groups around Labor Day, and they can make life tough for Republicans.

Because of the shaky Governor and the open Senate seat, Michigan Democrats are going to ring lots of doorbells in September and October.

Mark Schauer begins with a huge disadvantage in that he was from a district away from the great number of Michigan voters in the Southeast. But if he could win in Battle Creek, he can pick up the votes in Greater Detroit, Lansing, Flint, Saginaw, and Ann Arbor. Friendly chats that can customize the discussion are worth all the Orwellian ads that right-wing carpetbag groups can offer on TV.

Uh...it's not the "Obama recovery."  Stats show that the main reason Michigan's unemployment is dropping is because so many people have left the state to find work.
And as for "right-wing carpetbag groups," the DGA paid for Schauer's first TV ads, so Snyder's supporters aren't alone.  (They do this in statewide campaigns all the time--it's like their job.)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It's 50-50 that Republicans sweep statewide offices in Michigan this fall, including some seats on the Michigan State Supreme Court

They did in 2010, except that there were no Senate seats up, so those both remained D.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The Democratic Governor's Association is putting another $6 million down for Schauer.

[dmmidmi]

http://www.freep.com/article/20140603/NEWS06/306030043/Detroit-bankruptcy-pensions-artwork

If the DIA can be saved from a potential fire sale, Snyder's approvals will go up.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan's unions will be out for bear this year for the Duty to Starve legislation that Snyder ended up supporting after he had said that it was premature and unnecessary.

For now the political focus is on the open Senate seat; Republicans have been operating a deep-pocket campaign for a candidate who seems like a new Sarah Palin. GOP front groups have inundated my trash barrel with plenty of material with much the same graphic design that differs largely with the names of the front groups  (Ending Spending, Freedom Partners, Concerned Veterans for America, Americans for Prosperity, National Chamber of Commerce) with perhaps a new Concern of the Day.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Michigan's unions will be out for bear this year for the Duty to Starve legislation that Snyder ended up supporting after he had said that it was premature and unnecessary.

Will you please stop calling it that?

[dmmidmi]

Given her appearance at Mackinac, this has been pretty accurate so far: http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/9519/dems_use_seinfeld_parody_video_to_mock_terri_lynn_land#.U5bwv3JdXMU

[dmmidmi]

In other news, the GR Chamber and RTL are endorsing Brian Ellis over Justin Amash: http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2014/06/brian_ellis_backed_by_grand_ra.html#incart_most-comments

[Oldiesfreak1854]

In other news, the GR Chamber and RTL are endorsing Brian Ellis over Justin Amash: http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2014/06/brian_ellis_backed_by_grand_ra.html#incart_most-comments

Good for them.  Amash is a disgrace to the GOP.

[free my dawg]

Given her appearance at Mackinac, this has been pretty accurate so far: http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/9519/dems_use_seinfeld_parody_video_to_mock_terri_lynn_land#.U5bwv3JdXMU

imagen if politics modarn today

[pbrower2a]

Given her appearance at Mackinac, this has been pretty accurate so far: http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/9519/dems_use_seinfeld_parody_video_to_mock_terri_lynn_land#.U5bwv3JdXMU

She will be pinned down, and she will have to expose her core beliefs and her agenda. "It's about nothing" can work for a comedic master like Jerry Seinfeld. It does not work in politics.

[sg0508]

I will agree in the educated guess that the reason the unemployment rate has declined is that people have been running for the hills from MI the past few years, which actually has been the trend for the last several decades in the whole Rust Belt.

[dmmidmi]

Even though they endorsed Rick Snyder earlier this year, the Detroit Regional Chamber is throwing its support behind Gary Peters: http://www.mlive.com/business/detroit/index.ssf/2014/06/detroit_regional_chamber_endor_1.html#incart_river_default

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Even though they endorsed Rick Snyder earlier this year, the Detroit Regional Chamber is throwing its support behind Gary Peters: http://www.mlive.com/business/detroit/index.ssf/2014/06/detroit_regional_chamber_endor_1.html#incart_river_default

Why in the world would a pro-business organization support Peters?  I can understand why they may like his "bipartisan track record," but what makes them think he's a better choice than Land?

[dmmidmi]

Even though they endorsed Rick Snyder earlier this year, the Detroit Regional Chamber is throwing its support behind Gary Peters: http://www.mlive.com/business/detroit/index.ssf/2014/06/detroit_regional_chamber_endor_1.html#incart_river_default

Why in the world would a pro-business organization support Peters?  I can understand why they may like his "bipartisan track record," but what makes them think he's a better choice than Land?

Because he has a pretty successful track record of bringing home the bacon for his constituents. There's no promise that Terri Lynn Land would do the same thing.

For big businesses in Metro Detroit, he's probably the safer bet.

[dmmidmi]

Meet the people who are hoping to replace Gary Peters: http://www.freep.com/article/20140626/NEWS06/306260042/14th-congressional-district-Michigan

Every time I look at that district's boundaries, my jaw drops.

[dmmidmi]

Even Republicans agree that Terri Lynn Land's ads are terrible: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140626/POLITICS02/306260043/Political-Insider-GOP-candidate-lands-pollster-s-worst-ad-list

So much for the "Michiganders love her and elected her in two landslides, so she must be a great politician" line of reasoning.

[dmmidmi]

Looks a little like the fight for Dave Camp's seat is heating up: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140714/POLITICS01/307140013/0/POLITICS/GOP-battle-Camp-s-Congress-seat-gets-feisty

I'm betting Moolenaar still wins on August 5th, though.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Even Republicans agree that Terri Lynn Land's ads are terrible: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140626/POLITICS02/306260043/Political-Insider-GOP-candidate-lands-pollster-s-worst-ad-list

So much for the "Michiganders love her and elected her in two landslides, so she must be a great politician" line of reasoning.

I thought her ads were great.  I was talking to my aunt today, and she said they did a great job of humanizing her.  I, for one, would agree.  But if people don't like them, then maybe it helps explain why her poll numbers have dropped recently.

Looks a little like the fight for Dave Camp's seat is heating up: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140714/POLITICS01/307140013/0/POLITICS/GOP-battle-Camp-s-Congress-seat-gets-feisty

I'm betting Moolenaar still wins on August 5th, though.

I just sent $5 to Moolenaar today.  Mitchell is running an attack ad claiming that Moolenaar voted to "raise taxes" 160 times, including supporting the Michigan Business Tax.  If anything, that actually makes me more likely to support him (as much as I hate tax increases) because it shows he's open to compromise if necessary.

[Bojack Horseman]

Most recent poll shows Snyder and Schauer tied at 40 apiece and Peters leading Land by 9.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Most recent poll shows Snyder and Schauer tied at 40 apiece and Peters leading Land by 9.

Who did it?  There's no way Peters is that far ahead (even if he leads), and most polls have had Snyder with a modest lead as well.

[dmmidmi]

Most recent poll shows Snyder and Schauer tied at 40 apiece and Peters leading Land by 9.

Who did it?  There's no way Peters is that far ahead (even if he leads), and most polls have had Snyder with a modest lead as well.

Magellan Strategies did it, who typically provides polling for GOP candidates and conservative organizations: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Magellan_MI_0614.pdf

Either way, even if Peters' lead has been modest, it has been consistent.

[dmmidmi]

Another crappy Terri Lynn Land commercial: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140716/POLITICS02/307160046/0/politics/New-Land-Senate-ad-emphasizes-Michigan-heritage

[dmmidmi]

And if you want more proof that the Washington Post sucks: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2014/07/15/lands-clever-anti-war-on-women-ad-didnt-do-much-to-close-the-gender-gap-in-michigan/

A few things...

1. That ad wasn't "funny" or "clever." It was stupid, because she thinks the fact that she is a woman proves that the policy positions that she takes cannot possibly adversely affect women, generally.
2. She is out-raising Gary Peters because she has dumped a bunch of her own money into the race.
3. Gender is merely one reason why she can't out-poll Gary Peters. Being an awful candidate, lack of intellectual prowess, and a refusal to take real positions on most important issues are other reasons.

[dmmidmi]

Additionally...guess who got the nod for worst political ad of the year?

http://www.nationaljournal.com/against-the-grain/the-2014-against-the-grain-awards-20140715

You guessed it.