Separate Elections for POTUS and VP
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Separate Elections for POTUS and VP
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Author Topic: Separate Elections for POTUS and VP  (Read 4342 times)
JRP1994
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« on: November 22, 2013, 06:01:17 PM »

Suppose that, as is the case when separate elections are held for Governor and Lieutenant Governor, the US adopted a system in which concurrent yet separate and independent elections are held for President and Vice President.

We know how the electoral maps turned out for President. But how would the electoral maps in the last few elections (let's say since 1976) have turned out for VP races?

1976: Dole (R) vs Mondale (D)
1980: Bush (R) vs Mondale (D) vs Lucey (I)
1984: Bush (R) vs Ferraro (D)
1988: Quayle (R) vs Bentsen (D)
1992: Quayle (R) vs Gore (D) vs Stockdale (I)
1996: Kemp (R) vs Gore (D) vs Choate (R)
2000: Cheney (R) vs Lieberman (D)
2004: Cheney (R) vs Edwards (D)
2008: Palin (R) vs Biden (D)
2012: Ryan (R) vs Biden (D)

Let the speculation begin!
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2013, 06:29:22 PM »

I think Lieberman wins by a slim but clear margin over Cheney, much bigger than the tiny margin between Bush and Gore, so this likely results in Bush/Lieberman. None of the other results change.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2013, 08:18:34 PM »

Bentsen could have won against Quayle. Texas would go for him, like some Southern states and Quayle gafes would cost his votes.
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Obscure
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2013, 08:53:21 PM »

Ryan would've won easily in 2012. Biden's just an idiot. And I think most Dems are aware of it.
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badgate
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2013, 02:13:33 AM »

Biden v Palin would be a blowout. 500 electoral votes, maybe a couple of desert islands...
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2013, 10:06:32 AM »

Two Bushies with Two New VPs:
Bush/Bentsen
Bush/Lieberman
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2013, 12:32:15 PM »

Ryan would've won easily in 2012. Biden's just an idiot. And I think most Dems are aware of it.

Even though Biden beat Ryan in there debate...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2013, 06:17:25 PM »

2000: Lieberman defeats Cheney



Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) - 49.8%, 317 EV's
Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (R-WY) - 46.6%, 221 EV's
Activist Winona LaDuke (G-CA) - 2.6%, 0 EV's
Others - 1.0%, 0 EV's

With a little more than a three point margin, Lieberman defeats Cheney. Lieberman clearly swings the east, and Cheney does fairly little to swing the West back to his side.

However, I think Cheney would beat Edwards.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2013, 06:36:00 PM »

Bentsen beats Quayle
Lieberman beats Cheney
Edwards beats Cheney (if you assume Lieberman didn't for whatever reason)
Ryan beats Biden
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2013, 06:52:19 PM »

1976 Mondale beats Dole
1980 Bush Beats Mondale and Lucey
1984 Bush Beats Ferraro
1988 Bentsen Beats Quayle
1992 Gore defeats Quayle and Stockdale
1996 Kemp beats Gore and Choate
2000 Lieberman beats Cheney
2004 Edwards beats Cheney
2008 Biden crushes Palin
2012; Ryan and Biden go to the Senate... ends in electoral college tie
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TNF
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2013, 09:54:54 PM »

1976: Mondale (D)
1980: Bush (R)
1984: Bush (R)
1988: Bentsen (D)
1992: Gore (D)
1996: Gore (D)
2000: Lieberman (D)
2004: Edwards (D)
2008: Biden (D)
2012: Biden (D)
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2013, 10:06:04 PM »

Are we talking about primaries for President and Vice President, or are we talking about a President picking a VP, and they running separately but together?
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2013, 02:50:05 PM »

Even more interesting would be if the VP elections were during the midterms - elected completely separately and if they had a little more political power, equal in influence to the Speaker of the House, effectively the leader of Congress.  Maybe even primaries and stuff too.  Who would be elected in 2010?
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NHI
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2013, 06:30:59 PM »

1976: Mondale
1980: Bush
1984: Bush
1988: Bentsen
1992: Gore
1996: Gore
2000: Lieberman
2004: Edwards
2008: Biden
2012: Ryan
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JRP1994
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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2013, 07:44:11 AM »

Are we talking about primaries for President and Vice President, or are we talking about a President picking a VP, and they running separately but together?

President picking VP, and the two running separately but together.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2013, 11:36:56 PM »

1976: Mondale
1980: Bush
1984: Bush
1988: Quayle- but Bentsen runs well ahead of Dukakis
1992: Gore
1996: Gore
2000: Lieberman by 2-4%
2004: Cheney- don't see much ticket splitting
2008: Biden
2012: Biden- but incredibly close, FL swings on Medicare and decides it:





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dudehere92
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2013, 11:42:15 PM »

1976
Bob Dole 57% 306 EV
Walter Mondale 42% 202 EV


1980
George Bush 62% 507 EV
Walter Mondale 37% 31 EV


1984
George Bush 65% 535 EV
Geardline Ferraro 34% 3 EV


1988
Lloyd Benston 61% 457 EV
Dan Quayle 38% 81 EV


1992
Al Gore 62% 526 EV
James Stockdale 25%
Dan Quayle 12% 12 EV


1996
Al Gore 51% 290 EV
Jack Kemp 48% 248 EV


2000
Joe Lieberman 50% 288 EV
Dick Cheney 49% 250 EV


2004
Dick Cheney 52% 286 EV
John Edwards 47% 252 EV


2008
Joe Biden 68% 480 EV
Sarah Palin 31% 58 EV


2012
Paul Ryan 50% 280 EV
Joe Biden 49% 258 EV





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badgate
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« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2013, 03:47:59 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2013, 08:54:32 PM by badgate »

Some of you are grossly overestimating Paul Ryan, particularly considering the context of his single debate performance and his meager presence on the stump.

Even more interesting would be if the VP elections were during the midterms - elected completely separately and if they had a little more political power, equal in influence to the Speaker of the House, effectively the leader of Congress.  Maybe even primaries and stuff too.  Who would be elected in 2010?


1990: Ann Richards (D)
1994: Bob Dole (R)
1998: Al Gore (D)
2002: John McCain (R)
2006: Hillary Clinton (D)
2010: Mike Huckabee (R)


Kind of predictable, if I spent more time writing a TL for each primary I'm not sure these would be the people, but they all definitely come to mind as strong contenders during these cycles. Richard riding high after her DNC Keynote. Dole riding the Republican wave, Gore fighting tooth and nail in what was mostly a net positive year for Democrats. McCain is an obvious choice for a prologue of his 2008 run, plus America would look to a veteran in the wake of 9/11. Hillary excites Democrats and leads the 2006 wave; Huckabee, having been the oft-overlooked runner up in 2008, would be a great choice to match the Tea Party furor of 2010.
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RosettaStoned
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« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2013, 08:27:13 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2013, 08:34:00 PM by RosettaStoned »

  1976: Dole
 1980: Bush
 1984: Bush

 1988: Bentsen
 1992: Gore
 1996: Gore
 2000: Lieberman
2004: Cheney
2008: Biden
2012: Ryan
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buritobr
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2013, 09:23:53 PM »

Suppose that, as is the case when separate elections are held for Governor and Lieutenant Governor, the US adopted a system in which concurrent yet separate and independent elections are held for President and Vice President.

Well, Brazil actually adopted this system between the 1940s and the 1960s. It worked exactly how JRP1994 suggested. In the elections of 1950, 1955 and 1960, the president and the vice were elected through independent elections. In 1950 and 1955, the president and the vice president from the same ticket were elected. In 1960, president and vice president from opposite tickets were elected. The political environment became very unstable.

Of course the Brazilian politics from the early 1960s was very different of the American politics. But I think that this system wouldn't work anywhere.

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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
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« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2013, 03:35:02 PM »

The political effects of splited tivkets would have simillar consequences but not that big of the French Co-habitation!
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Cathcon
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« Reply #21 on: December 05, 2013, 03:42:13 PM »

I don't see what convinces people that Paul Ryan could have magically won the Vice Presidency in this scenario.
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
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« Reply #22 on: December 05, 2013, 06:58:07 PM »

I don't see what convinces people that Paul Ryan could have magically won the Vice Presidency in this scenario.

Me too, Biden met the expectations as VP...
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #23 on: December 05, 2013, 11:26:51 PM »

Obama is the perfect candidate for Colorado - Biden would have lost it. Overall, I think a majority of individuals would vote straight-ticket, so I don't see quite as many changes as others are projecting. (Ignore EVs in 2008,2004, and 2000)

2012:


2008:


2004:


2000:

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Brewer
BrewerPaul
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« Reply #24 on: December 06, 2013, 11:04:56 PM »

1976: Bob Dole (55-44)
1980: George H. W. Bush (58-40)
1984: George H. W. Bush (60-39)
1988: Lloyd Bentsen (57-42)
1992: Al Gore (47-30-23) 30% for Stockdale
1996: Al Gore (51-45)
2000: Joe Lieberman (51-48)
2004: Dick Cheney (53-46)
2008: Joe Biden (67-32)
2012: Joe Biden (51-47)
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