Rank from #1 to #5 the 5 individuals most likely to be elected president in 2016

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

1. Hillary Clinton/Chris Christie/Joe Biden
2. Hillary Clinton/Chris Christie/Joe Biden
3. Paul Ryan
4. Andrew Cuomo
5. Rand Paul/Martin O'Malley

[Maxwell]

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Chris Christie
3. Scott Walker
4. Paul Ryan
5. Martin O'Malley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilary Clinton
Chris Christie
Martin OMalley
Joe Biden
Brian Schweizer

[Grumpier Than Thou]

1. Hillary Clinton
1. Chris Christie
(large gap)
3. Andrew Cuomo
(larger gap)
4. Paul Ryan
5. Joe Biden

[Minnesota Mike]

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Chris Christie
3. Scott Walker
4. Rand Paul
5. Amy Klobuchar

Clinton above Christie only because she has  a much easier path in the primaries.  Christie gets the GOP nomination he becomes the favorite.

[Bull Moose Base]

Here's the deal with Scott Walker. Let's use his favorite Green Bay Packers as an analogy. They won the Super Bowl 3 years ago but were 8-6 with 2 games left in the regular season and basically had to run the table, win their last 2 games, 3 playoff games on the road, then beat the AFC champ in the Super Bowl. Even though they did all that, after 14 games, they were pretty unlikely to win the Super Bowl.

Walker has to win re-election in a year (he's polling a 2 point lead against an unknown opponent), then Ryan has to decide not to run (and Ryan, while sending mixed signals, sometimes sounds very interested), then he probably has to win Iowa which, even if he's favored to, could easily not happen, then he probably has to beat Christie or something, then he'd have to beat, probably, Hillary. He could do all that of course. But I just don't see how his cumulative chance of clearing all those hurdles is above single digits. Which isn't to say the top 5 doesn't include people with single digit chances. But most of you have him too high.

[Mister Mets]

One math thing to keep in mind.

Hillary Clinton is generally considered an overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Which means she's several times more likely to be the President than any other Democrat. Hell, she's probably more likely to be President than the other Democrats combined.

So if her odds of being the next nominee are 70%, and her odds of winning the General Election are 65% (presumably anyone ranking multiple Democrats on the list thinks the party has a great chance of winning the 2016 GE), that puts her at 45.55%.

For obvious reasons, the next Democrat is going to be at a fraction of that. Everyone else in the party (Cuomo, Biden, Schweitzer, Gilibrand, Klobuchar, O'Malley, etc.) is represented by the percentage possibility that the Democratic nominee is someone other than Hillary.

Individual Republicans presumably have a better chance of winning their nomination than a non-Hillary Democrat.

So if you think Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Scott Walker each have a 20% chance of being the Republican nominee, and a 35% chance of winning the GE, that puts them each at a 7% chance of being the next President.

If you think Cuomo has a 10% chance of being the Democratic party's next nominee, and a 65% chance of winning the GE, that leaves him at a 6.5% chance of being the next President.

This would be a Top 5 with more Republicans than Democrats even if you think Democrats are heavily favored.

[liberal95]

I think that if Clinton sits out you will see Andrew Cuomo take over that wing of the party but Warren would hop in as the progressive alternative but here is my rankings.

1.Clinton
2.Cuomo
3.Warren
4. Biden
5. Christie

I put Christie at 5 because he is a loose cannon and could potentially be gaffe prone or say the wrong thing to the wrong person plus he will face a bloody primary if he is to win the nomination and the rest of the republicans like walker cruz rubio and paul are to far to the right to get elected.

[NewYorkExpress]

1. Chris Christie
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Scott Walker
4. Ted Cruz
5. Paul Ryan

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I thought Scott Walker was unpopular with the majority of the county?

[pbrower2a]

I thought Scott Walker was unpopular with the majority of the county?

Maybe -- but he likely best fits the desires of well-heeled Republicans for union-busting, reducing taxes for the super-rich, and privatizing the public sector. He's compatible with the Religious Right. He baits liberals, which appeals to many Republicans who don't know the difference between a liberal and a Commie.  If he wins re-election in Wisconsin he could easily win the primaries. If the economy is in the tank he could make a successful appeal that Americans need to make great sacrifices to the super-rich if they are to ever have a chance at recovery. From the neighboring state, he should do well in the Iowa caucuses and get a head start and early publicity. Of course he must be re-elected, which is itself iffy. If he does that he goes above Christie.

I've got Walker third. Hillary Clinton has the best chance, facing no meaningful opposition in the Democratic primaries. Joe Biden had his chances to run for President but went nowhere with them. Joe Biden of course becomes the favorite in in the event that he becomes President in the event of the Unthinkable.   Christie is the Republican with by far the best chance of getting elected -- if nominated. But he will not run unopposed.

So  if you want to guess what percentage of chance of winning I have for the President it goes like this:

Clinton  55%
Christie 30%
Walker   7%
Biden     5%
others    8% with nobody over 2%

President Obama seems in good shape for a non-obese black male in his 50s who used to smoke. But note the qualifications for health.

Walker is a very distant third. He may be an obnoxious SOB, but he is very good at getting campaign funds and satisfying his backers.     

 

[Non Swing Voter]

1) Hillary Clinton

*enormous drop*

2) Joe Biden

3) Chris Christie

4...5) No likelihood at present.

[NHI]

1. Hillary Clinton/Chris Christie
2. Jeb Bush
3. Andrew Cuomo
4. Scott Walker
5. Marco Rubio

[LeBron]

1) Hillary Clinton

2) Amy Klobuchar (What can I say, women want a woman in 2016)

3) Rand Paul (Over time, he'll become more nationally electable than Christie)

4) Joe Biden (With Warren probably not running and Hillary still undecided, he could be the Democratic forerunner)

5) Chris Christie

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

How about now?

[BaconBacon96]

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Scott Walker
3. Jeb Bush
4. Rand Paul
5. Joe Biden or John Kasich

[NewYorkExpress]

1. Scott Walker (He did win re-election by a surprisingly comfortable margin, and other rivals have fallen apart (Christie), or decided not to run (Ryan, Portman))

2. Jeb Bush (Assuming he wins the Republican nomination, the only thing holding him back is his last name, and against Hillary probably won't be a problem)

3. Hillary Clinton (I'm beginning to suspect that this election will be oddly similar to 2000, with Hillary playing the role of Al Gore- she should have no trouble at all against almost any Democrat (that means you, Joe Biden), but like in 2008, she's the wrong candidate to run now)

4. Marco Rubio- (His competition for the GOP nomination isn't Jeb, it's Walker-people aren't quite getting that)

5. Ted Cruz (He could steal the nomination based on being so popular with the base, but Hillary would flatten him and other Democrats (Biden, Webb, Cuomo) would give him fits)

Honorable Mention; Dr. Ben Carson, Rand Paul, George Pataki, Joe Biden and Martin O'Malley

[HAnnA MArin County]

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Hillary Clinton
4. Hillary Clinton
5. Hillary Clinton

[Mister Mets]

Current guesses.

1. Hillary Clinton- Overwhelming favorite for the Democratic party's nomination.
2. Scott Walker- His biggest difficulty was going to make it into the top-tier, and he's already succeeded at that.
3. Jeb Bush- He's got money and resources.
4. Rand Paul- Bad week aside, he has political chops and a base of support.
5. Mitt Romney- Has a strong shot if there's a brokered convention, or frontrunners stumble badly.

Honorable Mentions- Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Kirsten Gilibrand

[King]

Clinton, Walker, Paul, Warren, any other GOP, Biden

But the distance from 1 to 2 is massive.

[SPC]

My previous rankings:

1. Clinton (I find this much less likely than anybody else on this board, although given the cluster**** that will be the 2016 Republican primaries, she takes the top spot both due to the certainty of her being the Democratic nominee and the possibility that the GOP will once again find a way to lose)

2. Christie (Like McCain, I think rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. I previously thought his bully personality would get in the way of either winning the primary or the general election, but now I believe that that abrasiveness will actually work to his advantage with both electorates.)

3. Paul (He's doing the work needed to appeal to a general election audience, and could benefit from a split in the field between palatable alternatives. Remember that his father nearly won Iowa and New Hampshire; imagine how the 2012 race could have gone if Ron Paul had been marginally more palatable to Republican primary voters. Of course, this relies on a narrow set of circumstances; if either the far right or the center of the party manages to coalesce behind a single candidate before the caucus, then Paul's window of opportunity closes.)

4. Cruz (With the rise of several palatable alternatives, Cruz might be competing only with Carson and Perry for the far right's backing, and thus like Paul could benefit from a narrow set of circumstances where the establishment vote is split between several candidates. The best scenario for this is if Paul either wins New Hampshire and the establishment decides to back a weaker general election candidate in exchange for retaining Republican orthodoxy on foreign policy and civil liberties, or if New Hampshire is close enough between two establishment candidates that neither of them can decisively win over that segment of the electorate. As for the general, Cruz is no idiot, and would probably pivot enough to the center once the nomination is wrapped up to prove much more competitive than he is currently. The shutdown will have occurred eons ago by the time 2016 rolls along.)

5. Walker (if he can emerge as a compromise between the two predominant factions before the primaries start, he stands a good chance of winning the nomination. He has gone three election cycles without making any career-ending gaffes, and does not seem like one who could easily be pigeonholed as plutocratic or racist, so would probably be sufficiently viable in a general election.)

^ 1. Clinton (stays on top for the same reason she was on top previously. She will either be the Democratic nominee or incapacitated come 2016, and she's no worse than even money against Bush's idiot brother)
^ 2. Bush (In this position for much the same reason Clinton is. Being the establishment pick makes him a heavy favorite to win the nomination, and he would still stand a decent chance simply by having an R next to his name and avoiding serious gaffes.)
^ 3. Walker (Although he's the only other person I can realistically envision obtaining the Republican nomination, I still view his candidacy with skepticism until it has had a few more weeks to withstand the circular firing squad that is the Republican primaries. He would stand a much better chance than Bush in the general election, if only for being more generic and undefined in the public imagination.)
V 4. Paul (Very little chance that he makes it out of the gate, but he would certainly remake the map if he were nominated. He would be risky if Republicans are favored, as I suspect, but a good pick if Democrats gain the upper hand.)
V 5. Christie (I suspect rumors of his political demise are vastly overrated.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton Who has positioned herself as an alternative to Obama but ride the good economic news
Walker Clearly tops GOP field with Iowa win, which has the voters as WI
Jeb       Has nepotism issues from Bush clan but clearly in contention
Christie Can knock out Jeb should he win NH if Walker wins Iowa
Joe Biden Should Clinton not run, will be nominee

[Pyro]

1. Clinton
2. Bush
3-5. People who don't have a prayer unless the above don't run

[IceSpear]

#1 Hillary Clinton
#2 Chris Christie
#3 Kirsten Gillibrand
#4 Paul Ryan
#5 Scott Walker

LOL! Oh 2013...new list:

1) Hillary Clinton
2) Scott Walker
3) Jeb Bush
4) Rand Paul
5) John Kasich

[bobloblaw]

1. Hillary Clinton - anyone not putting her #1 is a hack. She clearly has the clearest path to being nominated, and is at least a 50/50 chance to win the general election.
2. Chris Christie - most likely Republican to win the general election, but will he get past the primaries without severely compromising his moderate credentials?
3. Scott Walker - I'm thinking one of the Cheesemen win the primary, and unlike Paul or Cruz I think they're in the mainstream enough to be electable. Walker ahead of Ryan because I reckon he's the most likely to run, I feel Ryan would be more happy in Congress.
4. Paul Ryan - see above.
5. Jeb Bush - he gets here as he has a strong resume, a strong regional base and probably hasn't soured himself so much on the far-right as Christie has. Several could challenge this spot IMO.

Why is Chris Christie most likely to win the general?? He has accomplished nothing as GOV, squandering an excellent opportunity to move NJ to the right. Has a bromance problem with Obama with the GOP base and Bridgegate effectively killed his chances.