Generic D vs. Generic R 2016

[IceSpear]

This is the map in a TYPICAL, relatively neutral election. Democrats will only need a single toss up state to win, Republicans will need to sweep all 4 of them. So essentially, in order for Republicans to win the presidency, they either have to hope for a wave year which sweeps them to victory (either due to overall political climate or a horrible Democratic candidate, not exactly a dependable scenario) or sweeping the toss ups.

Obviously specific candidates could change a lot in particular states, but this is the baseline Democratic advantage.

[SPC]

Why is Colorado a tossup, but Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire (all of which performed similarly in 2012) firmly in the Dem column? Pennsylvania I could understand due to its low elasticity, but Iowa and New Hampshire are just as elastic if not more so than Colorado.

[IceSpear]

Why is Colorado a tossup, but Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire (all of which performed similarly in 2012) firmly in the Dem column? Pennsylvania I could understand due to its low elasticity, but Iowa and New Hampshire are just as elastic if not more so than Colorado.

I wouldn't say they're "firmly" in the Dem column. Both the Dem columns and GOP columns run the gamut from "solid D/R even if caught with live boy and dead girl" to "just very slightly tilting D/R". Perhaps I should've used shades to indicate these differences, but the toss up states were my main focus.

Iowa always tends to be 2-3 points more Democratic than the nation. I could see making New Hampshire a toss up, and it would help the GOP a little bit just because winning ONLY Colorado would no longer suffice. But the GOP would still have to sweep the other 4 (VA, FL, OH, NH).

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Colorado should be a democrat state and Iowa should be tossup.  But otherwise agree with this post.  A generic D will probably win Virginia, a generic R could sweep the rest... still not enough to win the election though... so D's have a natural advantage.  Florida will probably be the closest state.

[ElectionsGuy]

My map with shades.

>70% = Safe
>50% = Likely
>30% = Lean

Dem: 233
Rep: 206
Toss: 99

[PJ]

The electorate is not in the republican's favor.

[opebo]

My map with shades.

>70% = Safe
>50% = Likely
>30% = Lean

Dem: 233
Rep: 206
Toss: 99

Hmm, very, awfully biased there EG.  Here's the real map using your colors and the Safe/Likely/Lean designations:

[ElectionsGuy]

My map with shades.

>70% = Safe
>50% = Likely
>30% = Lean

Dem: 233
Rep: 206
Toss: 99

Hmm, very, awfully biased there EG.  Here's the real map using your colors and the Safe/Likely/Lean designations:

The only difference between our maps is that I have more toss-ups and you seem to call states "likely" and "safe" more easily than me.

[Vern]

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Yeah, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin should be  added to the map as grey. Florida should be Republican.

[opebo]

Yeah, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin should be  added to the map as grey. Florida should be Republican.

Haha, wishful thinking doesn't make it so, box.

[Person Man]

Yeah, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin should be  added to the map as grey. Florida should be Republican.

Haha, wishful thinking doesn't make it so, box.

I will agree if Scott gets elected, or at least if Scott breaks 50% or outperforms himself.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Yeah, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin should be  added to the map as grey. Florida should be Republican.

Haha, wishful thinking doesn't make it so, box.

NVM, forget about Wisconsin.

[JRP1994]

All things equal:

Generic Democrat: 253
Generic Republican: 235

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin should be  added to the map as grey. Florida should be Republican.

Agreed!!  Democrats have only won PA and WI for about 30 years in a row now... they are clearly tossups...

Florida on the other hand, Democrats have only won twice in a row... clearly it's Republican leaning. 

While we are on the subject, New York and Connecticut should be switched to "lean Republican."

[opebo]

All things equal:

Generic Democrat: 253
Generic Republican: 235

Florida leans R while NH is a tossup?

[Person Man]

All things equal:

Generic Democrat: 253
Generic Republican: 235

Florida leans R while NH is a tossup?

New Hampshire is more Democratic than Pennsylvania. I would flip those two but the other guys are about average. Ohio should almost be light conservative, but they always seem to be picked up by the winner in the end.

[IceSpear]

All things equal:

Generic Democrat: 253
Generic Republican: 235

Florida leans R while NH is a tossup?

New Hampshire is more Democratic than Pennsylvania.

PA was more Democratic than NH in 1992, 2000, 2004, and 2008. They were virtually the same in 1996 and 2012. Plus NH is more elastic.

[Non Swing Voter]

All things equal:

Generic Democrat: 253
Generic Republican: 235

Florida leans R while NH is a tossup?

New Hampshire is more Democratic than Pennsylvania.

PA was more Democratic than NH in 1992, 2000, 2004, and 2008. They were virtually the same in 1996 and 2012. Plus NH is more elastic.

And New Hampshire's small size makes it even more elastic and volatile. 

[ElectionsGuy]

All things equal:

Generic Democrat: 253
Generic Republican: 235

This looks about what I would put, except maybe put Iowa as Lean D.

[Mr. Illini]

Shades are lean (30%), likely (50%), safe (70%), and toss-ups are gray.

The Dems have it without the toss-ups.

[opebo]

Shades are lean (30%), likely (50%), safe (70%), and toss-ups are gray.

The Dems have it without the toss-ups.

That's right except OR, DE, and ME are safe on the D side, and KY, WV, and SC are safe on the R side.