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+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs?
| | |-+  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | | |-+  2004 Democratic Primary What-ifs
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Author Topic: 2004 Democratic Primary What-ifs  (Read 1770 times)
jokerman
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« on: April 01, 2005, 05:32:37 pm »
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For each scenario, assume nothing else before changes

(a) John Kerry never hires Mary Beth Cahill, sells his penthouse and goes to Iowa to revamp his campaign

or
(b) Wes Clark begins his campaign two months earlier.  Has enough time to amass much more campaign funds and campaigns heavily in Iowa

or
(c) Dean does 10% better in Iowa.  Dosen't win but still beats Edwards.  Dean scream never happens.

(d) Clark drops out after New Hampshire and endorses John Edwards and fiercly campaigns for him for the southern feb. 3 primaries and in Tenn and Virginia.
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chris allen
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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2005, 07:27:37 pm »
Ignore

For each scenario, assume nothing else before changes

(a) John Kerry never hires Mary Beth Cahill, sells his penthouse and goes to Iowa to revamp his campaign

or
(b) Wes Clark begins his campaign two months earlier.  Has enough time to amass much more campaign funds and campaigns heavily in Iowa

or
(c) Dean does 10% better in Iowa.  Dosen't win but still beats Edwards.  Dean scream never happens.

(d) Clark drops out after New Hampshire and endorses John Edwards and fiercly campaigns for him for the southern feb. 3 primaries and in Tenn and Virginia.

(A) - John Kerry never wins Iowa or the Democratic nomination.

(B) - Wes Clark does better in Iowa and the primaries. Finishes 3rd in Iowa or a close 2nd.

(C) - Howard Dean finishes 2nd in Iowa. Wins New Hampshire, gets enough steam and wins the 2004 Democratic Nomination. Plus there wouldn't be no "I Have A Scream" speech for the GOP to beat him over the head with.

(D) - Dean would still win the nomination, but Edwards would be a likely VP canidate regardless.
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