The decrease of non-Hispanic white percentage-wise by state
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  The decrease of non-Hispanic white percentage-wise by state
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Author Topic: The decrease of non-Hispanic white percentage-wise by state  (Read 1360 times)
eric82oslo
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« on: November 30, 2013, 09:19:25 PM »
« edited: December 09, 2013, 10:46:00 PM by eric82oslo »

As many as a whole 14 US states have actually lost non-Hispanic white population in actual numbers since 1990. Those states are; California (more than 2 million), New York (1,156,000), New Jersey (504,000), Illinois (383,000), Pennsylvania (328,000), Connecticut (208,000), Massachusetts (195,000), Maryland (168,000), Rhode Island (93,000), Ohio (85,000), Michigan (80,000), Louisiana (41,000), Hawaii (38,000) and North Dakota (3,600). California and New York/New Jersey alone have lost more than 3.7 million non-Hispanic whites in just 20 years.

Now these are the reductions state by state in the percentage of their non-Hispanic white population between 1970 and 2010:

1. California: -36.2%
2. Nevada: -32.6%
3. Maryland: -25.7%
4. New Jersey: -25.4%
5. Texas: -24.3%
6. New York: -21.8%
7. Washington: -21.1%
8. Connecticut: -20.2%
9. Florida: -20%
10. Illinois: -19.8%
11. Rhode Island: -19.7%
12. Oklahoma: -19.4%
13. Massachusetts: -19.3%
14. Delaware: -18.8%
15. Georgia: -17.5%
16. Oregon: -17.3%
17. Arizona: -16.5%
18. Virginia: -15.3%
19. Hawaii: -15.3%
20. Minnesota: -14.6%
21. Colorado: -14.6%
22. Kansas: -14.5%
23. New Mexico: -13.3%
24. Utah: -13.2%
25. Nebraska: -13.1%
26. Alaska: -13.1%
27. Wisconsin: -12.3%
28. Idaho: -11.9%
29. Pennsylvania: -10.8%
30. Michigan: -10.5%
31. Indiana: -10.2%
32. North Carolina: -10.2%
33. South Dakota: -9.9%
34. Iowa: -9.3%
35. Ohio: -8.7%
36. Tennessee: -8.1%
37. North Dakota: -8%
38. Louisiana: -7.9%
39. Missouri: -7.6%
40. Montana: -6.9%
41. New Hampshire: -6.8%
42. Arkansas: -6.5%
43. Alabama: -6.3%
44. Wyoming: -6.2%
45. Kentucky: -6.1%
46. Vermont: -4.9%
47. South Carolina: -4.9%
48. Maine: -4.7%
49. Mississippi: -4.6%
50. West Virginia: -2.5%
(51. Washington D.C.: +8.3%)

(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Hispanic_Whites#Historical_Population_by_state_or_territory)

Mostly urban Democratic states with the highest changes (except Texas) and mostly (Deep) South Republican states with the least changes (with the big exceptions of Georgia & Florida). California, Nevada, Maryland and New Jersey at the top, with West Virginia and Mississippi hitting rock bottom. Anyone seeing similarities with the actual electoral maps of 2008 and 2012 here?

If I were to illustrate the changes of each state in a map, it would look like this:



Interesting, isn't it?
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2013, 10:41:41 PM »

Your terminology is a little misleading. I couldn't figure out at first if you were referring to % changes in the number of non-Hispanic whites or the % change in the percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic White.

What you're really talking about is the percentage point change (not the percent change) in the proportion of the total population that is non-Hispanic white.
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stevekamp
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2013, 01:05:15 AM »

Eric -- thank you for the excellent data -- what's your source?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2013, 01:13:34 AM »

NC and OK are very surprising.  Also MN.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2013, 11:42:11 AM »

Eric -- thank you for the excellent data -- what's your source?

Here Smiley: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Hispanic_Whites#Historical_Population_by_state_or_territory
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2013, 04:08:30 AM »

I bet half of that is due to interracial births, especially in CA/NY. 
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2013, 09:01:35 AM »

Now, kids, if you want to understand the difference between percentages and percentage points, here is your chance.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2013, 08:17:06 AM »
« Edited: December 09, 2013, 10:37:43 PM by eric82oslo »

To show you the change there's been between each individual state since 1970, I'll give you two maps. The first one showing the states ranked by non-Hispanic white population in 1970, then second one showing the same ranking in 2010.

1970



2010



The biggest change is of course that the Deep South is not that non-white anymore compared to the rest, which also is the case for borderline D.S. states like Arkansas & Tennessee. Instead, the Southwestern states along with the extensive metro areas between Boston & Baltimore (from Massachusetts to Maryland) have increased their browness heaps. Illinois is the Third area/state that's gotten much more non-white.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2013, 10:32:08 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2013, 10:45:44 PM by eric82oslo »

Now these are the reductions state by state in the percentage of their non-Hispanic white population between 1970 and 2010:

1. California: -36.2%
2. Nevada: -32.6%
3. Maryland: -25.7%
4. New Jersey: -25.4%
5. Texas: -24.3%
6. New York: -21.8%
7. Washington: -21.1%
8. Connecticut: -20.2%
9. Florida: -20%
10. Illinois: -19.8%
11. Rhode Island: -19.7%
12. Oklahoma: -19.4%
13. Massachusetts: -19.3%
14. Delaware: -18.8%
15. Georgia: -17.5%
16. Oregon: -17.3%
17. Arizona: -16.5%
18. Virginia: -15.3%
19. Hawaii: -15.3%
20. Minnesota: -14.6%
21. Colorado: -14.6%
22. Kansas: -14.5%
23. New Mexico: -13.3%
24. Utah: -13.2%
25. Nebraska: -13.1%
26. Alaska: -13.1%
27. Wisconsin: -12.3%
28. Idaho: -11.9%
29. Pennsylvania: -10.8%
30. Michigan: -10.5%
31. Indiana: -10.2%
32. North Carolina: -10.2%
33. South Dakota: -9.9%
34. Iowa: -9.3%
35. Ohio: -8.7%
36. Tennessee: -8.1%
37. North Dakota: -8%
38. Louisiana: -7.9%
39. Missouri: -7.6%
40. Montana: -6.9%
41. New Hampshire: -6.8%
42. Arkansas: -6.5%
43. Alabama: -6.3%
44. Wyoming: -6.2%
45. Kentucky: -6.1%
46. Vermont: -4.9%
47. South Carolina: -4.9%
48. Maine: -4.7%
49. Mississippi: -4.6%
50. West Virginia: -2.5%
(51. Washington D.C.: +8.3%)

Compare this with the changes in partisan inclination of the states between 1972 and 2012:

1. Hawaii
1972: R +1.81%
2012: D +38.85%
Change: D +40.66%

2. Vermont
1972: R +3.05%
2012: D +31.74%
Change: D +34.79%

3. Maryland
1972: R +0.75%
2012: D +22.22%
Change: D +22.97%

4. Mississippi
1972: R +35.42%
2012: R +15.36%
Change: D +20.06%

5. New York
1972: D +5.81%
2012: D +24.32%
Change: D +18.51%

6. Florida
1972: R +20.97%
2012: R +2.98%
Change: D +17.99%

7. New Jersey
1972: R +1.65%
2012: D +13.95%
Change: D +15.6%

8. Georgia
1972: R +27.24%
2012: R +11.68%
Change: D +15.56%

9. Virginia
1972: R +14.47%
2012: D +0.01%
Change: D +14.48%

10. Delaware
1972: D +2.74%
2012: D +14.77%
Change: D +12.03%

11. North Carolina
1972: R +17.43%
2012: R +5.9%
Change: D +11.53%

12. Maine
1972: D +0.17%
2012: D +11.43%
Change: D +11.26%

13. California
1972: D +9.69%
2012: D +19.26%
Change: D +9.57%

14. Connecticut
1972: D +4.71%
2012: D +13.47%
Change: D +8.76%

15. Illinois
1972: D +4.63%
2012: D +13.01%
Change: D +8.38%

16. New Hampshire
1972: R +5.97%
2012: D +1.72%
Change: D +7.69%

17. New Mexico
1972: R +1.34%
2012: D +6.29%
Change: D +7.63%

18. Nevada
1972: R +4.21%
2012: D +2.82%
Change: D +7.03%

19. Rhode Island
1972: D +16.96%
2012: D +23.6%
Change: D +6.64%

20. Colorado
1972: R +4.86%
2012: D +1.51%
Change: D +6.37%

21. Washington
1972: D +4.87%
2012: D +11.01%
Change: D +6.14%

22. South Carolina
1972: R +19.51%
2012: R +14.34%
Change: D +5.17%

23. Washington D.C.
1972: D +79.69%
2012: D +79.77%
Change: D +0.08%

24. Pennsylvania
1972: D +3.17%
2012: D +1.53%
Change: R +1.64%

25. Alabama
1972: R +23.74%
2012: R +26.05%
Change: R +2.31%

26. Ohio
1972: D +1.59%
2012: R +0.88%
Change: R +2.47%

27. Michigan
1972: D +8.76%
2012: D +5.64%
Change: R +3.12%

28. Iowa
1972: D +6.02%
2012: D +1.95%
Change: R +4.07%

29. Indiana
1972: R +9.62%
2012: R +14.06%
Change: R +4.44%

30. Oregon
1972: D +13.03%
2012: D +8.23%
Change: R +4.8%

31. Arizona
1972: R +8.11%
2012: R +12.92%
Change: R +4.81%

32. Louisiana
1972: R +13.82%
2012: R +21.07%
Change: R +7.25%

33. Nebraska
1972: R +17.85%
2012: R +25.64%
Change: R +7.79%

34. Tennessee
1972: R +14.8%
2012: R +24.26%
Change: R +9.46%

35. Texas
1972: R +9.81%
2012: R +19.64%
Change: R +9.83%

36. Wisconsin
1972: D +13.48%
2012: D +3.08%
Change: R +10.4%

37. Kansas
1972: R +15%
2012: R +25.58%
Change: R +10.58%

38. Oklahoma
1972: R +26.55%
2012: R +37.4%
Change: R +10.85%

39. Missouri
1972: R +1.44%
2012: R +13.24%
Change: R +11.8%

40. Arkansas
1972: R +14.96%
2012: R +27.55%
Change: R +12.59%

41. Massachusetts
1972: D +32.12%
2012: D +19.28%
Change: R +12.84%

42. Minnesota
1972: D +17.64%
2012: D +3.83%
Change: R +13.81%

43. Alaska
1972: R +0.36%
2012: R +17.85%
Change: R +17.49%

44. North Dakota
1972: R +3.13%
2012: R +23.49%
Change: R +20.36%

45. Montana
1972: D +3.07%
2012: R +17.51%
Change: R +20.58%

46. Idaho
1972: R +15.05%
2012: R +35.77%
Change: R +20.72%

47. Kentucky
1972: R +5.45%
2012: R +26.55%
Change: R +21.1%

48. West Virginia
1972: R +4.07%
2012: R +30.62%
Change: R +26.55%

49. Wyoming
1972: R +15.39%
2012: R +44.68%
Change: R +29.29%

50. Utah
1972: R +18.1%
2012: R +51.9%
Change: R +33.8%

51. South Dakota
1972: D +14.52%
2012: R +21.88%
Change: R +36.4%

Some surprises there perhaps, like Massachusetts becoming more Republican-friendly despite having the 13th highest increase in its non-white population. Notice that, at the same time, a Whole 9 states switched from Republican-leaning to Demcratic-leaning, while only 3 states went the other way (Ohio, Montana & South Dakota). Quite remarkable, isn't it?

These PVI changes over the past 40 years can thus be translated into the map below:



0-5%: 30% saturation
5-10%: 40% saturation
10-15%: 50% saturation
15-20%: 60% saturation
20-25%: 70% saturation
25-30%: 80% saturation
Above 30: 90% saturation
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