Ukraine Crisis

[MATTROSE94]

You really think Putin is going to start a nuclear war?

Eventually. He does not want it: he will grow into it gradually. At some point he will move in too far: be that to Estonia, to Poland, or beyond. At that point the West will respond with force. In terms of conventional force - and even more so in terms of resources available - of course, Russia is no match. But Putin is already drunk with success - and he will be even more convinced of his invincibility at that point, so he will miscalculate. Defeats will start - that will be what will lead him to first threaten, and then use the nukes. At every point almost until he presses the button he will think that the West is weak and will not dare not to surrender. And once he realizes that the West dares, he will be too enraged and too desperate to care.

I do think that there is a slight possibility that NATO will eventually end up going to war with Russia over their actions in Ukraine and possible incursions into Poland and Estonia, but I don't think that Putin will be stupid enough to end up using nuclear weapons against the U.S. or NATO.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

[ag]

If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.

[jaichind]

It seems that in the Russian speaking city of Odessa the pro-Russians are also beginning their protests.  This might be supported by the Russians in Transnistria. Several people killed already.

[Cory]

Soviet Union needed 9 years of full concentration - with the experienced army, coming straight out of WWII. You underestimate both Ukraine and Ukrainians. But it was awfully bloody and cruel the last time - on both sides. God forbid it happens again.

The Soviets by no means had to "fully concentrate" against the minor Ukrainian insurgency after WWII. You are dramatically overstating the effectiveness and scale of the Ukrainian insurgency. They were never a real threat to the Soviet State, they were a pest.

You're acting like the Ukrainian insurgency after WWII was some kind of major war.

[ag]

It seems that in the Russian speaking city of Odessa the pro-Russians are also beginning their protests.  This might be supported by the Russians in Transnistria. Several people killed already.

Actually, there was a major pro-Ukrainian demonstration, which was attacked by pro-Russian forces. Let us keep terminology straight: the protests are pro-Ukrainian, the attacks are pro-Russian.

[ag]

Soviet Union needed 9 years of full concentration - with the experienced army, coming straight out of WWII. You underestimate both Ukraine and Ukrainians. But it was awfully bloody and cruel the last time - on both sides. God forbid it happens again.

The Soviets by no means had to "fully concentrate" against the minor Ukrainian insurgency after WWII. You are dramatically overstating the effectiveness and scale of the Ukrainian insurgency. They were never a real threat to the Soviet State, they were a pest.

You're acting like the Ukrainian insurgency after WWII was some kind of major war.

Locally, it was.  There were many victims, both in Ukraine and in Lithuania. I had a great-uncle (who just died a few days ago). Upon graduation from a law school around 1950 he was offered a choice between a job in a town in Lithuania and another in a rural district in Russia´s far north (rural parts of the Arkhangelsk province). Even though he was an urban dweller (had lived for years in Leningrad), and even though he had been badly wounded in the War and doctors insisted that he needed a warmer climate, he did not hesitate: mortality among the Soviet officials in Lithuania was simply too high to even consider going there.  And big chunks of Western Ukraine were worse.

It was a very cruel guerrilla war, and it was active for years. Yes, it was suppressed: but, then, the Soviets managed to suppress Chechnya as well. Of course, they simply deported the Chechens - but, then, again, their policies in big chunks of Ukraine were not much different: mass deportations, if not as wholesale as in the Caucasus. And the number of Ukrainian nationalists in Soviet camps was always staggering: and their terms were horrendous. Many people wound up spending well over 25 years in jail. Ukrainian nationalism for years continued to be one of the greatest fears of the Soviet officialdom - and that is, despite complete lack of any support from abroad (the world accepted Soviet domination of Ukraine without a question).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.

Not really. To go further west, Putin needs unrest on a scale similar to Ukraine prior to the toppling of the previous government.  I don't see that happening in the Baltics.  At most he annexes Transnistria once it borders Russia, but the necessary conditions to go further west don't exist.

[ag]

If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.

Not really. To go further west, Putin needs unrest on a scale similar to Ukraine prior to the toppling of the previous government.  I don't see that happening in the Baltics.  At most he annexes Transnistria once it borders Russia, but the necessary conditions to go further west don't exist.

Generating something of this nature in parts of the Baltics (Narva, Daugavpils, etc.) would, actually, be much easier than in Donetsk. Population there uniformly Russian or Russian-speaking (up to 95% in Narva), big chunk of it Russian citizens (but very long-term resident), with commercial interests overwhelmingly tying them to Russia. And those with local citizenship largely vote for Russian parties - and are, mainly, unhappy that these are too moderate. If Putin decides to generate unrest there tomorrow, the day after tomorrow there will be riots all over.

[ag]

Disaster in Odessa...

[ag]

This looks like an unmitigated disaster. There is not enough information to know what happened so far, but many are dead. Besides being a disaster in and by itself (and, whatever those people were doing, their death IS a disaster), it gives Russia pretext it needed to invade the South.

It will be really bad.

[ag]

Lots of conflicting news on both sides. Here is what seems plausible.

Today there was a pro-Ukrainian march - actually, much of it were the football fans (there was a visiting team from Kharkiv today in town - football fans all over the Ukraine, even in Donetsk, have come out strongly against Russia), though there were also some other pro-Ukrainian activists. The march was attacked, there was shooting (seems to be evidence for pro-Russian snipers in the streets).  At that point pro-Ukrainian reinforcements arrived and the crowd attacked the pro-Russian camp in front of the trade-union building. Some of the people in the camp retreated into the union building and the sides were exchanging shots and Molotov cocktails - apparently, and unfortunately, mostly the latter. Well, unsurprisingly the building caught fire. 31 dead are the result of that fire (they initially said 38), and a few others are from clashes elsewhere in the city - likely over 40 victims. Several hundred wounded, some of them badly.

Whatever happened, but, obviously, this is a big fig-up by the police and the authorities in general. They should have done a better job separating the sides and they should have brought the fire-fighting equipment faster. Well, we know Ukrainian state is inefficient, but, in this case, too much depended on doing the job right - whatever the Russian provocations.

Anyways, I guess, some of the calls here for ordinary Ukrainians to start resisting have found a response. Civilians are starting to fight back - with, unfortunately, predictable results. There will be many dead, I am afraid.

Honestly, would have made a lot more sense to have concentrated some major NATO troops along Russian borders some time ago - none of this would have happened.

[ag]

Tomorrow there will be another crisis: in Crimea. Tomorrow the Tartars were supposed to have their annual spring festival. Today, Dzhemilev, who was planning to attend, was not allowed to enter Crimea. Consequently, the Tartars canceled the celebration and tomorrow are planning to go collectively to the border checkpoint instead. There will be tens of thousands of them at the checkpoint, most likely. I do not know what is going to happen.

[ag]

It took 40 min for the fire trucks to arrive, another 20 min for them to enter the building.

Nasty business.

[ag]

Today thousands of Tartars came to the checkpoint to greet Mustafa Dzhemilev. They broke through the Russian checkpoint and met him in the "neutral" zone. Dzhemilev said that, for the moment, they are sticking to non-violence: he did not try to cross with the crowd (there were, probably, enough of them to swamp the checkpoint - but there would have been man victims). The Russian government is threatening participants with prosecution.

I think, this year we have a perfect candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize: if they do not give it to Mustafa Dzhemilev, they will be in the wrong.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I think, this year we have a perfect candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize: if they do not give it to Mustafa Dzhemilev, they will be in the wrong.

He's a legitimate option, but my suspicion is it will probably go to something involved in Syria again.

[Simfan34]

Jesus, why aren't there NATO forces in the Ukraine already?

[Famous Mortimer]

Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

[ag]

Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.

[Zanas]

Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.

Does not every electoral authority declare itself as such, in a way, though ? I mean if nobody challenges them, are they not de facto an authority ?

[windjammer]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

[ag]

Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.

Does not every electoral authority declare itself as such, in a way, though ? I mean if nobody challenges them, are they not de facto an authority ?

1. No, electoral authorities generally are appointed using some ñegal procedure.

2. They are not challenged in this case only by themselves. Nobody outside the semi- unknown world of pro-russian forces in the region (or, possibly, Russia) recognizes them - or, really, knows who they are.

[Simfan34]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?

I've barely said anything on Ukraine in a while other than rather bland analysis. I don't really like either side though I won't go in depth again.

[ag]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?

I've barely said anything on Ukraine in a while other than rather bland analysis. I don't really like either side though I won't go in depth again.

Actually, as somebody who generally detests your views, I have to say that in this case you were reasonable.