Ukraine Crisis

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

[Cory]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.

[ag]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

[ag]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.

I have never reported a post, but I will do right now. Simply because I believe some disgusting posts towards Ukrainians, people who suffer from this folk of alcoholic homophobes, shouldn't be the victimes of the sage-master Putin lover.

Leave him alone. He has, actually, been moderately reasonable here - a lot better than on Venezuela, say. There has not been anything outright offensive that I noticed - and I have been the main "banderovets" here.

[windjammer]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.

I have never reported a post, but I will do right now. Simply because I believe some disgusting posts towards Ukrainians, people who suffer from this folk of alcoholic homophobes, shouldn't be the victimes of the sage-master Putin lover.

Leave him alone. He has, actually, been moderately reasonable here - a lot better than on Venezuela, say. There has not been anything outright offensive that I noticed - and I have been the main "banderovets" here.

He will be back, you can be sure. It's a question of time.

[Beet]

If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

China has shown zero interest in establishing an exclusive sphere consisting of itself and Central Asian states.

[Vosem]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

[MaxQue]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

I think he has no issue with being a vassal state, but he wants to keep the control of his country.

[ag]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

He is pretending he is doing things willingly - he is not doing them. They have not signed a shred of paper till now. Kazakhs, actually, do not mind a Customs Union with Russia - they have no chance for one with EU, anyway. But they want their terms to be considered - and they drive a good bargain. But the Kazakhs are very cognizant of the fact, that many in Russia think of the bulk of Kazakhstan as Southern Siberia, and they are quite proactive in fighting it - one case where being a dictatorship helps.

[ag]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

I think he has no issue with being a vassal state, but he wants to keep the control of his country.

Vassal? Oh, he would have an issue with that. But he is not being a vassal.

[Zanas]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.

I have never reported a post, but I will do right now. Simply because I believe some disgusting posts towards Ukrainians, people who suffer from this folk of alcoholic homophobes, shouldn't be the victimes of the sage-master Putin lover.

Yes, but calling all Russians alcoholic homophobes because you hate Putin is perfectly alright, good job.

[Beet]

Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

[Zanas]

Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

inb4 ag states that this is the end of the world as we know it.

[ag]

Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

inb4 ag states that this is the end of the world as we know it.

This by itself? No. But the end of the world is nigh, this is just another sign. And I am dead serious.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

european left just wanted to lose election.

"We are witnessing the emergence of a Nazi State fostered by the USA and the EU in Ukraine. Yesterday conflict in Odessa and other east Ukraine cities with nearly 50 victims shows the protagonist behavior of Nazi groups under the guidance of Kiev. The split that Ukraine society is living has been influenced by the willingness of USA and the EU to go against Russia deploying all kind of measures in order to isolate that country in a kind of Cold War revival. It is just the opposite to what should be recommended if peaceful coexistence was the desired aim.
One hundred years after the First World War Europe should not play with fire but on the contrary would favor diplomatic and peaceful solutions to all kind of international crisis. The ELP condemns the attitude of the EU on this conflict and also the brutal behavior of Kiev and urges all parts to solve the differences under the principle of dialogue within the rules of the UN. - See more at: http://www.european-left.org/positions/statement-party-european-left-pel-odessa-conflict#sthash.r1arbCKw.dpuf".

I see Putin has apparently revived the Soviet practice of providing funding for useful stooges in the West.

[Simfan34]

Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe, they're GDP per capita is something abysmal, like around ~$5,200? This contrasts poorly with something around ~$14,000 in Russia and ~$28,000 in a "poorer" country like Portugal. Of course these aren't exact figures but I'm sure you get the point.

[Cory]

Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

The fact that Russia owns Kaliningrad is kind of ridiculous really. Everybody knows it's really part of East Prussia, which should never have been given to Poland to begin with.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27314816

[Simfan34]

Ag, what does it mean?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WAR

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America?

[ag]

Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America?

You may think you are joking, but you are, likely, right. Putin's words, historically, have notable inverse correlation with his plans. Note, that ue has done exactly NOTHING to show that his new mood is more than words. Troops are still where they were, the "referendum-organizers" still claim it is on, active fighting still continues. Beleiving Putin's reasonableness is not a smart thing to do

[Beet]

Ukraine government should move cautiously and not try to increase the body count. Hold transport hubs, border crossings and strategic areas, do not try to storm central cities or buildings. Work towards a political solution.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm going to agree with ag and say that Putin has some sort of ulterior motive, though we'll have to wait and see what his next move is.

FTR I've shifted to tacitly supporting the Kiev government as the lesser of two evils at this point, especially since the neo-Nazis have been to some extent shoved aside.

[YL]

No mention of the "referendum" results?  96% for the separatists in Luhansk, only 90% in Donetsk...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia