Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

No mention of the "referendum" results?  96% for the separatists in Luhansk, only 90% in Donetsk...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia

In related news, the separate referendum was held in Moscow on the future of Vladimir Putin. In a stunning result, 99% of the 98.6% of the voters who turned out, voted for his immediate castration. It is of interest, that the Gagarin district precinct, where Mr. Putin himself votes, showed a 100% turnout with 100% voting for castration.

[IceSpear]

You would think they'd at least lie about these numbers to make them a little more believable. Nobody's buying these 90%+ margins.

[Nhoj]

They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm going to agree with ag and say that Putin has some sort of ulterior motive, though we'll have to wait and see what his next move is.

FTR I've shifted to tacitly supporting the Kiev government as the lesser of two evils at this point, especially since the neo-Nazis have been to some extent shoved aside.

Until I see the press release, I refuse to believe this.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It appears Donetsk has just proclaimed their own sanctions, prohibiting Obama, Merkel and Ashton from entering.

Obama is going to be CRUSHED!

[Simfan34]

6 death points for excessive hyperbole.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.

Right. Like in Crimea the would-be No voters chose not to vote at all because they saw the referendum as illegitimate. The difference is that in Crimea, Yes would have won anyway, but here that surely wouldn't be the case.

[ag]

They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.

Right. Like in Crimea the would-be No voters chose not to vote at all because they saw the referendum as illegitimate. The difference is that in Crimea, Yes would have won anyway, but here that surely wouldn't be the case.

All numbers seem to be bs. It seems that the percentages were written first and the vote numbers added later. And a few other things. Apparently (I did not check, just copying from people whom I trust):

1. The first numbers, which appeared 2.5 hours after the "polls closed", had percentages essentially identical to the final results (even though, because they were only able to open a few polling places, some of these, if the vote numbers are right, should have had well over 30 thousand votes - each).

2. There are no detailed results, of course, just the final protocol with the sums: one for Donetsk and one for Luhansk. At least, the Luhansk one has been posted on the web. In it

a.   the number of ballots issued to polling places and the number of eligible voters coincide (that is, they knew exactly where each voter was going - even though most regular polling places were closed, and others were hastily arranged)

b. the number of ballots issued to voters is exactly 75.2000% of the number in (a) (which would be the case, if they simply multiplied the number in (a) by 75.2% and rounded to the nearest integer - but would be very unlikely if they really counted the number of votes cast and then rounded the percentages

c. the number of ballots found in the ballot boxes is exactly equal to the number of ballots issued to voters (nobody took the ballot home, etc.)

d. the share of invalid ballots (0.74% in both Luhansk and Donetsk) is, actually, exactly 0.7400% of total ballots cast (again, what you would get if you multiply the number in (b) by 0.74% and round to the nearest integer, but highly unlikely if you actually count the ballots.

e. the number of votes in favor of independence is, once again, 96.2000% - same thing, they first decided on the percentages and than multiplied the number in (b) by that, rounding to the nearest integer, and never really counted any votes.

Any more questions?

Details (in Russian) here

http://barouh.livejournal.com/419297.html

[ag]

On Sunday, may 18th, it will 70 years of the deportation of Crimean Tartars. Every year they organize a bunch of commemorative events during the 17th and the 18th, culminating in a large demonstration on the 18th. Today the de facto Crimean authorities issued a decree prohibiting all public meetings until June 6th. Officially this is done because of the "situation in the SE of Ukraine". Note, that they have just had massive public meetings on May 1 (Labor Day), May 9 (Victory Day) and are resuming such events in time for the Celebration of the Russian Culture in June - situation in SE Ukraine notwithstanding.

Large numbers of police detention cars have, apparently, been brought into Crimea from Russia.

The Majlis is calling on everybody to find a "legal" way out. They are insisting on non-violence. Is anybody EVER going to notice those who are preaching non-violence, or do they have to start exploding on the Moscow metro for somebody to pay attention?

[ag]

Today in Cerkasy region a referendum on attaching the Kuban (part of Russia, which includes, for instance, the now famous Sochi) to Cerkasy (and Ukraine) was conducted. In a number of voting places opened in different parts of Cerkasy, voters could cast their ballots for themselves, their relatives, or their pets. The ballot papers explicitly stated that "incorrectly filled out ballots shall be considered invalid". According to the vote organizers, the turnout by 4 PM has reached 98%. The organizers are expecting that the final tally will show 140% voting for unification of Cerkasy and Kuban.

<seen in Pravda Ukrainy">

 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America?

Sounds like they'll be like Transnistria, Russian puppet states not officially recognized by Russia.

[ag]

This Sunday a referendum on annexation of Rostov-on-Don was conducted in Odessa. Long lines of voters were observed in front of the polling booths. According to organizers, 146% of the participants voted in favor of incorporation of Rostov into Odessa.

http://dumskaya.net/news/odessity-proveli-referendum-o-prisoedinenii-rost-035808/

[Zanas]

I think ag finally lost it.

[ag]

I think ag finally lost it.

I am just translating the news from Ukrainian sites And those "referendums" were actually "real" - as real as those in Donetsk and Luhansk, I mean. That is, they had polling stations, ballots and votes - and even lines of those wishing to vote.  Such is the Ukrainian sense of humor these days

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/05/23/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-presidential-election-respect/9480961
Putin says he will "respect" the results of the Ukrainian Presidential election

Me; He's going to send his troops in while they are voting. He really doesn't want this particular election to happen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Donetsk and Luhansk have merged to form the new country of "New Russia"... which probably is an epic fail of a country considering its generic name.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Donetsk and Luhansk have merged to form the new country of "New Russia"... which probably is an epic fail of a country considering its generic name.

Novorossiya is the term that the Russian Empire used for the regions that it conquered in what is now eastern and southern Ukraine in the eighteenth century, so the name's not new.

[Citizen Hats]

Perhaps 'Sudatenrussia' would be more appropriate

[MaxQue]

Perhaps 'Sudatenrussia' would be more appropriate

Or "Predatrussia", given they are traitors. It fits them them. First, predat is "betray" in Russian, second, it sounds like predator, which is exactly the current Russian behaviour.

[ag]

Big nasty battle in Donetsk. Likely hundreds dead. Details are sketchy, but, it seems, both sides agree on the following. In the morning "separatists" tried to take over the Donetsk Airport. The Ukrainian troops there first stepped aside - and called for reinforcements. Those came in: with a vengeance. Seems like a very large force, aircraft, helicopters, artillery (?), etc. etc. Also seems like this time they really meant it: both sides confirm huge losses for their opponents (they are speaking of, at least, a hundred fighters dead).  There are also some casualties among the civilians. There has been shooting near the Donetsk main train station and pictures of civilian dead have been all over the web. Pushilin, the "Donetsk President" has desperately called for Russian help at a press conference - and might have later fled. Girkin, the "Donetsk Commander-in-Chief" has acknowledge a very badly planned operation by his side at the airport - and especially blamed failure to disengage in time. It is not clear to which extent the operation is localized within the city, or to which extent it is a major attempt to take back Donetsk. Also, there was further action in Mariupol, where the local "Donetsk Republic" offices were attacked by the government.

This is very nasty, though, of course, not very unexpected. Just hope, it is not used as pretext to send Russian troops in. Otherwise, it might be evidence that the outgoing Turchinov administration is taking the blame on itself, trying to clean up the issue before Poroshenko is inaugurated, so that he could start from a clean slate (apparently, Turchinov has said that he will only stay the parliamentary speaker through September and will then leave politics for good - so he may be willing to fall on the sword for the Fatherland). Then, again, Poroshenko said today that the "anti-terrorist operation should take hours, not months" - whether this was an order, or was taken for one, is a legitimate question.

[ag]

Just to make my point clear. I am fully on the Ukrainian side here. However, everything I know suggests that Ukrainian army is unsuitable for and incapable of proper peace-making operations in civilian areas. Even if they try to avoid civilian casualties (and, at this point, they may be too enraged to much try - there have been several fairly high profile massacres of Ukrainian patrols/units by the "Donetsk Republic" forces recently), there are bound to be fairly heavy civilian casualties. The use of artillery and aircraft in an urban setting is always dangerous.

So, while I have no doubt that overall the blame here squarely lies with the government of Russia, I can only hope - and that hope is slight, frankly - that Ukrainian action is not the immediate reason for a major humanitarian disaster.   There has been a lot of amateurishness here, but at some point, there also has to be responsibility. A clear analysis will have to be undertaken and at least some of those on the Ukrainian side must be held responsible, no matter how painful (I, of course, have no hope about the Russian side). Anything else would be a bad start for the Poroshenko administration.

[Simfan34]

No one is doubting your loyalties, ag. I believe this insurrection, aided by the "polite people", should be stopped at all costs.

[ag]

No one is doubting your loyalties, ag. I believe this insurrection, aided by the "polite people", should be stopped at all costs.

We are long past polite people here. The so called DPR and LPR folk are anything but polite. Hell, yesterday Girkin, the DPR "Commander in Chief" published his first official execution order (they shot two of their own, apparently, for marauding - the order was issued post factum, apparently). There have been serious casualties on both sides even before yesterday (including a recent case of, apparently, murdering some Ukrainian soldiers they had captured).

Still, while I really want Ukraine to prevail, I also want it not too loose its own moral authority. They should not be like the Russians in Chechnya.  It is tough to retain humanity in war, but it has to be done. Especially because they want to retain and/or restore the loyalty of the civilians in the area.

[Beet]

ag is talking a lot of sense here.

[Simfan34]

Insurrectionists can be expelled. In the Crimea, at least, it is not really their land, anyway.