Ukraine Crisis

[Franknburger]

Daring some kind of political outlook, I think recent events will push Ukraine's territorial reform and decentralisation even further up the agenda than before. It had been one of PoR's main political demands while still in opposition, but, once having taken power, they - ehm - felt somewhat less pressed to move forward. Nevertheless, building on concepts that were developed during Tymoshenko's 2007-2009 presidency, the Constitutional Assembly  has in 2012 drafted a reform proposal that combines territorial reorganisation (merger of micro-units) with local governance reform and empowerment. I might be able to retrieve a respective map (I have attended a presentation by one of the EU experts that consulted the Constitutional Assembly), but that could take a little while.

For those interested, here are some background documents with a few more details:
http://cor.europa.eu/en/documentation/studies/Documents/local-regional-government-ukraine.pdf

http://www.aer.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Commissions/CultureEducation/EventsAndMeetings/2013/0425-27_DNK/WorkDocs/Briefing_note_on_local_and_regional_government_in_Ukraine.pdf

[Famous Mortimer]

Will PoR survive? It's somewhat personalist.

Actually the Party of Regions was extremely well organized when you compare it to the various parties of power under Kuchma and Yushchenko.

[Deus Naturae]

The parliament has elected Oleksandr Turchinov, a Tymoshenko ally, Acting President.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will PoR survive? It's somewhat personalist.

Actually the Party of Regions was extremely well organized when you compare it to the various parties of power under Kuchma and Yushchenko.

And it isn't as though President Waxwork had much of a personality...

[Miles]

Arrest warrant issued by the interim interior minister for Yanukovych.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII, I doubt that they can do much about it.

Rhetorics sound as if they're about to break off diplomatic relations with Ukraine though or something like that.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII, I doubt that they can do much about it.

Rhetorics sound as if they're about to break off diplomatic relations with Ukraine though or something like that.

Putin is anything but impatient. Russia suffered a setback in 2004-2005, just to regain an upper hand later. Now, despite making noises (which would be very surprising if they haven't), they'll probably wait for the next round as well.

And make no mistake, given the divisions and every government inability to maintain support, there will be the "next round".

[Silent Hunter]

Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII, I doubt that they can do much about it.

Ukraine isn't Georgia. It has a much bigger military than the latter, whose air force was quite literally what was left in the Sukhoi factory when the country became independent and they had enough problems with that.

[ag]

Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII...

It is the year 14. I would not discard that possibility, actually.

[Cory]

It is the year 14. I would not discard that possibility, actually.

Wouldn't it just be the damnedest irony....

[King]

Of course, it wouldn't be an international incident without John McCain demanding the USA jump into the pool.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-delays-announcement-of-new-government/1858553.html

In addition to delaying the formation of a unity Government, the Parliament of Ukraine has voted to recommend that the International Criminal Court try Yankouvych, former Interior Minister Vitaly Zharchencko and former Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka for "Serious Crimes"

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-delays-announcement-of-new-government/1858553.html

In addition to delaying the formation of a unity Government, the Parliament of Ukraine has voted to recommend that the International Criminal Court try Yankouvych, former Interior Minister Vitaly Zharchencko and former Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka for "Serious Crimes"

That makes a degree of sense.  Clearly Russia and the Russophiles in Ukraine would never accept the legitimacy of a domestic prosecution.  Even if one accepts the legitimacy, the possibility of them getting a fair hearing in the Ukraine is slim.  Also, once handed over to the Hague, there would be no possibility of pressuring the new government to release them.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Putin doesn't need to send tanks, when he can simplz turn off gas.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Crimea playing up secession/rejoining Russia.

[Beezer]

Putin orders ‘combat readiness’ tests for western, central Russian troops

[ag]

It has been in Russian/Ukrainian news for some hours now. Frankly, I am scared.

[ag]

Crimea playing up secession/rejoining Russia.

Actually, they have not been able to do this today - no quorum in the local legislature was partly to blame. But also there seems to be some rethinking - for the moment the local legislative and executive leaders are blaming each other for separatism and hinting at a modicum of loyalty. One reason might be, today there was a massive pro-Ukrainian demonstration by Crimean Tartars in Simferopol. They may be realizing, a secession might lead to a local civil war.

Sebastopol is quite another matter, though.

[Franknburger]

Sebastopol used to be 'hip' around 2005-07, and saw quite a real estate boom. I know several expats that bought flats there. The financial crisis has hit Ukraine hard and probably also affected Sebastopol's real estate market, and there are obviously many locals unhappy of being crowded out by rich people from Kiew, Dnjepropetowsk and abroad. But the local business elite might want to give the thought of joining Russia (and suddenly having to compete with overhauled Sochi) a second thought, and finally vote with their purse.

[badgate]

Kerry warns Russia against military action and pledges $1 billion in international loans to Ukraine.

[YL]

Various news organisations are reporting that armed men have seized the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol and hoisted a Russian flag.  It doesn't seem clear who they are.

[badgate]

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/438008339801579520/photo/1

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems the Crimean protests are the result of a decision of the Ukrainian Parliament to revoke a law which established Russian as an additional official language in all regions of Ukraine with at least 10% Russian speakers.

The Crimean parliament building as it looks right now:

[Antonio the Sixth]

It seems the Crimean protests are the result of a decision of the Ukrainian Parliament to revoke a law which established Russian as an additional official language in all regions of Ukraine with at least 10% Russian speakers.

Repealing that law was a really goddamn stupid move, tbf.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/02/27/ukraine-yanukovych-whereabouts/5857331/

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