Ukraine Crisis

[YL]

The Guardian's Moscow correspondent wasn't very impressed with Yanukovych's press conference.  Anyway, Yanukovych claims he's still president, and that he thinks Crimea should remain within Ukraine, but that what's happened there was "a natural reaction to the bandit coup in Kiev".

Elsewhere, apparently Vladimir Zhirinovsky turned up in Sevastopol.

[RogueBeaver]

Russian AF IL-76s are landing at a base near Simferopol.

[YL]

There are reports that Crimean airspace has been closed.  (BBC News)

[RogueBeaver]

BBC now says no IL-76 at Gvardeysky, the AFB near Simferopol.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well, according to treaties, the Russians are perfectly allowed to use Sevastopol airfield. Also, it's where their Black Sea fleet is based, so they are allowed to deploy troops to defend their garrisons as well. Given the situation, that would be logical.

What I completely don't understand and what is hard indeed to explain is the business with Simferopol.

EDIT: Forgot Ukraine closed airspace.

Elsewhere, apparently Vladimir Zhirinovsky turned up in Sevastopol.

I forgot all along him

[J. J.]

AP (according to Fox) is reporting a Russian convoy crossing into the Crimea. 

[RogueBeaver]

Now Ukrainian officials are claiming 15 Russian transport planes in Simferopol, 2000 troops.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Crimea might be more trouble than it's worth for the Ukraine.

[ag]

Crimea might be more trouble than it's worth for the Ukraine.

Would be true, if there were any reason to believe that Russians would stop at the Crimea. Unfortunately, there is absolutely none.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It just my guess, but I don't see any large invasion as of now. Putin is probably baiting the new government to make some sort of mistake, that would futher erode their already diminished position with the Maidan, that now pretty much controls Kiev. Divide et impera.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It just my guess, but I don't see any large invasion as of now. Putin is probably baiting the new government to make some sort of mistake, that would futher erode their already diminished position with the Maidan, that now pretty much controls Kiev. Divide et impera.

Yeah, I have a hard time thinking the West would tolerate a full-fledged invasion. Taking Crimea would be equivalent to what they did with Georgia back in 2008, which already put Russia in a tough spot.

[J. J.]

Russians admit they are in:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10668357/Russia-admits-that-it-has-moved-troops-in-Ukraine.html

[nuclearneo577]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O-63RbV3vE#t=9890

Obama is speaking about this right now.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh sh**t: Russian troops trying to disarm a Ukrainian brigade. Obama about to make another statement, probably empty.

[nuclearneo577]

Well, if Russia is setting up for some kind of offensive movement, are they going to wait for somebody to shoot at them first, or do they still need more troops in place?

[RogueBeaver]

Ukrainian defence ministry says Russian troops will attack at 0500 local.

[Beezer]

Country invades a foreign nation to protect its fellow countrymen and the rest of the world is just sitting on their asses. Welcome to Munich 38.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Country invades a foreign nation to protect its fellow countrymen and the rest of the world is just sitting on their asses. Welcome to Munich 38.

Gee, please don't do Godwin.

[Boris]

So what's Russia's endgame here? Assuming that everyone is smart and no triggers are pulled, eventually Russian troops will withdraw and you're left with a defacto independent state (maybe recognized by only Russia and Belarus?) that has extremely close ties to Moscow? What about the 30-40% (is it that right? too lazy to look it up) of the population that is not pro-Russia?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So what's Russia's endgame here? Assuming that everyone is smart and no triggers are pulled, eventually Russian troops will withdraw and you're left with a defacto independent state (maybe recognized by only Russia and Belarus?) that has extremely close ties to Moscow? What about the 30-40% (is it that right? too lazy to look it up) of the population that is not pro-Russia?

I was just thinking of such scenario. Doesn't even need to be partially recognized (see Transnistria).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

US believes Crimea is now under full military control of Russia.

[J. J.]

Well, CNN has just cited Munich and the Rhineland.  Godwin's Law seems to be suspended.

My guess is that Russia will annex Crimea.

[Franzl]

My guess is that Russia will annex Crimea.

Brilliant guess there.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Country invades a foreign nation to protect its fellow countrymen and the rest of the world is just sitting on their asses. Welcome to Munich 38.

Hitler wasn't sitting on 8,000 nuclear warheads though.

So this is more like Afghanistan 1979. Ironically, Putin waited until the Olympics were over.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just read a report that the United States is considering to abstain from the annual G8 Summit (which is supposed to take place in June in Sochi of all places) and to urge the Europeans to do the same.

Welcome to Cold War II.

This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.