Ukraine Crisis

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

[J. J.]

This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

It is not lost on me that the last Crimean War resulted in the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet, by the Russians.

[User157088589849]

This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

100% per cent right. The consequences of the collapsed austria-hungarian empire have never been resolved.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.

Well, if this leads to us defunding the wasteful ISS, at least one good thing will have come out of it, tho it's not enough to make what's happening good overall.

[ag]

Just read a report that the United States is considering to abstain from the annual G8 Summit (which is supposed to take place in June in Sochi of all places) and to urge the Europeans to do the same.

Welcome to Cold War II.

This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.

There should never be a G8 again. G7 is the proper format, and it should be announced, firmly and unequivocably, yesterday. It is not about a cold war, it is about the reality: Russia does not belong.

[ag]

This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

There is a VERY big ideological difference: Russia is not a democracy.

[Peeperkorn]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

Told you.

[Peeperkorn]

I can see three possible scenarios:

a) The most probable: some kind of deal under the table between Western powers and Russia, with an Ukrainian Crimea with more autonomy from Kiev and Moscow getting complete control of key ports and airports (like American bases in Spain, Italy and Germany...or Okinawa).

b) Kiev trading an independent Crimea as a Russian puppet state while they keep their freedom to join EU.

c) Kiev not accepting any deal (kamikaze option). Moscow would occupy all Crimea and annex it.

The main problem is far eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkov): they not only speak Russian and prefer good relations with Moscow: they ARE ethnic Russians. Would they accept a "westernized" country? Not so sure.

[ag]

The main problem is far eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkov): they not only speak Russian and prefer good relations with Moscow: they ARE ethnic Russians. Would they accept a "westernized" country? Not so sure.

This is, actually, not true. In Kharkiv people are overwhelmingly self-identifying Ukrainians (nearly 71% thus identified in the 2001 census, against about 26% calling themselves Russian). In Donetsk and Luhansk there are also Ukrainian majorities (around 58% Ukrainian against 39% Russian. And of those self-identified Russians many have fairly complex identities. They may have a different idea of what it means to be Ukrainian, but they, most definitely, are not (for the most part) Russian: neither culturally, nor based on self-recognized identity. Many might identify with the Russian literary standard as their language, and are a lot less comfortable with literary Ukrainian, but, actually, local spoken dialects, especially in rural areas, are closer to Ukrainian (as between Germany and Netherlands, there is no sharp boundary).

There has never been any strong movement for joining Russia in those parts (unlike in Crimea). They might want somewhat closer links with the Eastern neighbor, but they all want it to remain a neighbor.

It is the Russians who do not believe those guys being Ukrainian. They themselves tend to have no doubts.

[YL]

I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility that they're trying to carve out a puppet state on Ukrainian territory for Yanukovych.

[Peeperkorn]

Gracias por la información, ag.

Best map I have found comes precisely from 2001 census.



Another one from 2001:

[Peeperkorn]

Concerning the validity of the census I found this analysis:

http://www.ukrweekly.com/old/archive/2003/020302.shtml

Wikipedia with complete results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Census_%282001%29

[Silent Hunter]

That was in 2001; a lot of Tatars have moved back since then.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems to be that the Ukrainians have only few options left.

Either they do nothing or they issue an ultimatum to Russia. And when the ultimatum runs out they again have the option between doing nothing or start shooting at Russian soldiers.

[Famous Mortimer]

Reading about Crimean politics on Wikipedia and it's crazy.

So apparently the Crimean Prime Minister that got overthrown was a member of the Party of Regions who used to be a cop who shot protesters.

He was overthrown for being too moderate...

So now the Prime Minister is this guy from a party called Russian Unity, which only won 4% of the vote in the last election.

[Peeperkorn]

Reading about Crimean politics on Wikipedia and it's crazy.

If you want crazyness, try to understand Central Asia Politics. Especially Turkmenistan.

Also:

El Pais de Madrid is reporting that Ukraine's Coastguard has received instructions for protecting all Black Sea ports from any Russian incursion.

It could be a mistake from the media or it could be a kamikaze movement.

--

Update, Wall Street Journal:

Breaking: Ukraine Warships in Black Sea

    

*Ukraine Warships Deployed in Black Sea on Alert — Border Service Official
*Ukraine Border Forces: Will Do Everything to Prevent Seizure of Bases, Ships
*Military Attempting to Take Control of Border Naval Bases Said They Act on Orders From Moscow — Ukraine Border Official

http://stream.wsj.com/story/deadly-clashes-in-ukraine/SS-2-457850/SS-2-468999/?mod=wsj_streaming_deadly-clashes-in-ukraine

[Middle-aged Europe]

Referendum on the future status of Crimea was pushed up by the new Crimean government by two months and will now take place on March 30.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Protestors have occupied the Kharkiv regional administration and raised the flag of Russia.

[Peeperkorn]

Protestors have occupied the Kharkiv regional administration and raised the flag of Russia.

Apparently there were like 50 injured in clashes between pro-Russians and pro-Kiev in the city.

[Peeperkorn]

Donetsk:

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Crimea might very well be a smoke screen for Donbas.

[RogueBeaver]

Putin has "asked" the Duma for an AUMF in Crimea.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Putin has "asked" the Duma for an AUMF in Crimea.

Federation Council, not Duma.

[RogueBeaver]

And no one will do a damn thing.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

And no one will do a damn thing.

I'm sorry for sounding cynical here, but what actually can be done?

I'm asking because it's not so obvious.