Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

From the mouth of the horse leader today:

"Listen to me. Listen to me carefully. I want you to understand me exactly. If we make such a decision - only to defend Ukrainian citizens. Understand me. And let any serviceman shoot his own people. We will be standing behind them. Not in front, but behind. Let them shoot women and children. I would like to see who is going to give such an order in Ukraine"

[afleitch]

If ag is right, then you'll all have to eat your hats. Not because of that but because all food will be irradiated.

[ag]

If ag is right, then you'll all have to eat your hats. Not because of that but because all food will be irradiated.

And so will be the hats Anyways tortillas should be fine

Nah, we will survive   As I said, I am venting. There is a reason I am venting, though.

[Peeperkorn]

...

...

Seriously.

This is not 1938 nor 1939. I'm sick and tired of that extremely hyperbolic analogy, as I can hear it every day from my native nutjobs.

We live in the atomic age. That's why there never was a direct conflict between the West and the East. There were numerous crises, but come on, Ukraine, when compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis or Berlin standoff, is a storm in a teacup.

Russia is not going to attack NATO territory, NATO is not going to attack Russia. You may want this, but it ain't happening.

Agree.

Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.

Disagree. Russia thinks that it has a certain influence sphere.

One part of it comes from legacy of the ultra expansionist Russian Empire (let's call it traditional: Moscow as the Third Rome, Champion of Slavic nations, protectors of the land of the Rus and Orthodox world).

Other part is pragmatic-geopolitical: control over the Caucasus, control over Central Asia (Eurasia hypothesis), necessity of warm ports like Sevastopol and Vladivostok, to not allow military powers like NATO near them, etc.

--

We don't live in 1948 or 1962, true. But we don't live in the 90s either. Unexpected things could happen.

I think that the message of Putin is that: "Inside my sphere, I will do whatever I need or whatever I want to protect my national interest".

[Paleobrazilian]

Interesting piece on Eurasianism and Aleksandr Dugin, even though the source is far from great.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/372353/eurasianist-threat-robert-zubrinnteresting piece on Eurasianism and it's main proponent, Aleksandr Dugin:

[retromike22]

Russia just test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304

[Peeperkorn]

Interesting piece on Eurasianism and Aleksandr Dugin, even though the source is far from great.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/372353/eurasianist-threat-robert-zubrinnteresting piece on Eurasianism and it's main proponent, Aleksandr Dugin:

Eurasianism (probably one of the first geopolitical thesis in International Relations theory) had a comeback in the later 90s. Even the far-right and now pro-Putin Liberal Democratic Party (I think it's called that way) supports it.

[Peeperkorn]

Russia just test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304

Well, that's...


This definitely doesn't help at all.

[retromike22]

Russia just test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304

Well, that's...

Does that mean we have to start practicing Duck and Cover again?: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60

[Peeperkorn]

CNN says that it's a routine test.

Well, I don't care, it would be logical that you stop a test like that in the middle of a global crisis.

[Peeperkorn]

Economic sanctions always work quite well: Red Army winning the Civil War, Weimar's Republic voting the NSDAP, 1940' Japan bombing Pearl Harbor, Castro winning legitimacy in Cuba, etc.

[MasterJedi]

Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.

Or Obama, or Bush, Clinton, etc.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.

Which is why Georgia is now a province of the Russian federation.

[Zanas]

CNN says that it's a routine test.

Well, I don't care, it would be logical that you stop a test like that in the middle of a global crisis.

Well, not really from Russia's point of view, don't you think ? If Putin had postponed that test during this crisis, he'd have shown a weakness. You don't show a weakness during a crisis. But anyway, I'm not alarmed even by that. Even if I'm here sitting less than a thousand miles away from the Russian border. I'm not expecting the tanks anytime soon.

[bullmoose88]

I think the key fact, obviously, here is that Ukraine for better or worse isn't a NATO member. (Duh, I know).  If Putin decided to use his Putin Doctrine (hey, did I just invent a term?) to justify sending the Russian army to protect Russian minorities in say, the Baltic states, that's when the proverbial inks hits the fan. (turn and burn baby)  I highly doubt that he would, but the man has surprised me before.

[King]

I think the key fact, obviously, here is that Ukraine for better or worse isn't a NATO member. (Duh, I know).  If Putin decided to use his Putin Doctrine (hey, did I just invent a term?) to justify sending the Russian army to protect Russian minorities in say, the Baltic states, that's when the proverbial inks hits the fan. (turn and burn baby)  I highly doubt that he would, but the man has surprised me before.

It would be nice to have Ukraine in the NATO and EU sphere, but at the same time, it would also probably be a huge chore for both bodies to get a tumultuous Ukrainian government to follow through on any sort of resolutions.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Even in the best-case scenario, Ukraine is still well over a decade away from EU membership (NATO membership can be done a bit more easily)

[Famous Mortimer]

If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.

[SPC]

Not actually suggesting we do it but maybe the US and NATO should send some troops into Georgia at their request to take back the lands that Russia illegally took from them?

I guess you want to start World War 3 then.

He wants to avoid it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.

Ukraine has significantly more problems than Bulgaria even ignoring the last couple months.

[Deus Naturae]

Hillary Clinton channels ag.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.

Ukraine has significantly more problems than Bulgaria even ignoring the last couple months.

And Bulgaria really shouldn't be in the EU yet

[Eraserhead]

Hillary Clinton channels ag.

It would be great if she just went away.

[THE_TITAN]

I'm half Bulgarian and for all it's issues it doesn't come close to Ukraine. Bulgaria is a tiny landmass with quite a small population, it's easily manageable, Ukraine is the exact opposite.