Ukraine Crisis

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia Today anchor Liz Wahl quits her job live on air:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h79v9uirLY

RT releases a statement denouncing it as a "self-promotional stunt":

http://rt.com/usa/rt-reacts-liz-wahl-042/

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the Crimean deputy prime minister, the referendum on the future status of the peninsula was pushed up by another two weeks and is now set for March 16. Also, the referendum won't be about independence anymore, but whether Crimea wants to join the Russian Federation.

[Zanas]

I give you this article with all the caution possible. Aside from retrospecting the main fallacies in both sides' treatment of the crisis, it alleges that some if not most of the people shot on Maidan were shot by opposition gunmen and not government ones. But it comes from an alleged conversation between Ashton and Estonia's FM, bugged by Yanukovich's secret services and reported by RT. So a whole lot of caution with this.

[YL]

According to the Crimean deputy prime minister, the referendum on the future status of the peninsula was pushed up by another two weeks and is now set for March 16. Also, the referendum won't be about independence anymore, but whether Crimea wants to join the Russian Federation.

AP via the Guardian on this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has just met Putin and Medvedev in Moscow. Contents of the discussion will not be disclosed. Tomorrow he will travel to Kiev.

[Middle-aged Europe]

U.S. State Department releases a "fact sheet" on Ukraine that starts with:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/03/222988.htm

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.

Yeah, the United States, Japan, as well as the other powers, would be just trilled to have to deal with China reaching as far as the Northern Pole

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Looks like Putin has made a big mistake.

Sure he can annex Crimea, which will not receive any meaningful recognition, or turn it into another Transnistria (basically the same thing), but at huge cost. He's already losing influence in previously solid East and South Ukraine (windjammer being correct here) and the international reaction won't be nice.

[swl]

I don't see where he is making a mistake. Ukraine is leaving the Russian's zone of influence and he's trying to save what can be saved (and what matters most to Russian's interest).
Same thing goes with Georgia or Moldavia.

International reaction will be merely symbolic. Business leaders in Europe already spoke against  financial or trade sanctions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

OSCE observers were refused entry to Crimea by armed men today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev just made the following statement:

- The Crimean parliament's decision to join the Russian Federation is effective immediately.

- As of this moment, Ukraninian troops on Crimea are considered an occupation force. Ukrainian soldiers on Crimea must either accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian amry or leave the peninsula.

Who the f**k is this Temirgaliev guy anyway? Seems like a major troll to me.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't see where he is making a mistake. Ukraine is leaving the Russian's zone of influence and he's trying to save what can be saved (and what matters most to Russian's interest).
Same thing goes with Georgia or Moldavia.

So he's trying to limit his losses, hardly a strategic victory regarding his own backyard.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

People really tend to underestimate diplomatic and political measures that has been applied already and more than can be applied. So no one is going to the economic war with Russia, you don't have to wage an economic war.

[Zanas]

Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev just made the following statement:

- The Crimean parliament's decision to join the Russian Federation is effective immediately.

- As of this moment, Ukraninian troops on Crimea are considered an occupation force. Ukrainian soldiers on Crimea must either accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian amry or leave the peninsula.

Who the f**k is this Temirgaliev guy anyway? Seems like a major troll to me.

So they're not even waiting to have a phony referendum to implement it now ? Aren't they working a bit too fast ? What made them go so fast from March 30th to March 16th to effective immediately ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia Today has already adjusted their map of Russia:




Also, there's a report that the Simforopol airport started to list Kiev under "international departures" now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, has everyone seen the final wording of the Crimea referendum? Beyond being vague, it's literally meaningless. To paraphrase: Crimea is independent but it is part of Ukraine by virtue of agreements.

Huh?

No matter if "yes" or "no" wins, the Russians can claim their side won.

"Oh, they said 'no' that means Crimea did not agree to be part of Ukraine"

"Oh, they said 'yes' that means Crimea is free to declare independence"

Obviously both answers could also be interpreted as pro-Ukrainian as well

Perhaps they were inspired by the PQ.

[Хahar 🤔]

Also, has everyone seen the final wording of the Crimea referendum? Beyond being vague, it's literally meaningless. To paraphrase: Crimea is independent but it is part of Ukraine by virtue of agreements.

Huh?

No matter if "yes" or "no" wins, the Russians can claim their side won.

"Oh, they said 'no' that means Crimea did not agree to be part of Ukraine"

"Oh, they said 'yes' that means Crimea is free to declare independence"

Obviously both answers could also be interpreted as pro-Ukrainian as well.

At least the wording has been changed now to be far less vague.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev just made the following statement:

- The Crimean parliament's decision to join the Russian Federation is effective immediately.

- As of this moment, Ukraninian troops on Crimea are considered an occupation force. Ukrainian soldiers on Crimea must either accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian army or leave the peninsula.

Who the f**k is this Temirgaliev guy anyway? Seems like a major troll to me.

Seems odd considering that Russian troops have apparently pulled back from one Ukrainian base in the Crimea:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26466902

Is the pullback a PR stunt or did it cause the Crimeans to try forcing Putin's hand because they began to worry he'd abandon them? Not that I think they have anything to worry about on that front, but if that were to happen now, they'd be up [Inks] creek without a paddle, or even a boat, so I can understand them making certain they are securely on the back of the bear they have chosen to ride.

[Franknburger]

it seems the West has sufficiently managed to keep Putin and others busy answering incoming phone calls from D.C., Berlin and elsewhere that subordinates now lack a clear idea of where the journey shall go, and everybody is drawing their own conclusions.
Apparently, the "illegal" Ukrainian interim government, which Russian media describes to be in a state of chaos, is much more effective in ensuring coherent action, and they seem to have studied the "Prague 1968" playbook quite intensively. German media yesterday showed another Ukrainian base under "observation" by Russian troops. The Ukrainian commander expressed his concern about the "poor Russian guys" that had to spend the night outside in their vans, and indicated he was working on a more "human" solution. Supposing there was still some Vodka to be found in or near that base, I have a suspicion how that evening may have developed..

The Crimean government, meanwhile, has some work left to ensure a coherent representation abroad. On the ITB, the world's largest tourism fair that opened yesterday in Berlin, Crimea is represented with their own booth:

The booth is part of the Ukrainian presentation and situated in front of a map that displays Crimea as part of Ukraine. The Russian presentation, btw., is directly adjacent, as is the US'.

[YL]

U.S. State Department releases a "fact sheet" on Ukraine that starts with:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/03/222988.htm

Well, perhaps they were pleased with themselves about that Dostoyevsky line.  But what they say about number 10 is a bit dubious given that Svoboda have substantial representation in parliament and in the new government, and I understand that the leader of Right Sector (who appear to be made up of people who think Svoboda have gone soft) has been given a government post.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Both the European Union and the United States reacted with such measures as imposing visa restrictions on Russia and suspending several agreements. Also, the former is about to sing  association agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.voanews.com/content/khrushchevs-son-giving-crimea-back-to-russia-not-an-option/1865752.html

Nikita Kruschkevev's son Sergei says that giving the Crimea back to Russia is "not an option"


I'm not buying it.

[swl]

So he's trying to limit his losses, hardly a strategic victory regarding his own backyard.

Russia has been trying to limit its losses since 1991, it's nothing new. Next is Moldavia and the only remaining of Russian influence on its western border will be Belarus.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

[Franknburger]

The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

While I tend to agree in general, this time it is a bit more complicated. In the 1994 Budapest Convention, the USA, the UK and Russia have guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Ukraine handing over all nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. If any of the signatories now unilaterally questioned that accord, that would mean a massive blow to worldwide arms control, and put the international credibility of all parties at stake.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

While I tend to agree in general, this time it is a bit more complicated. In the 1994 Budapest Convention, the USA, the UK and Russia have guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Ukraine handing over all nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. If any of the signatories now unilaterally questioned that accord, that would mean a massive blow to worldwide arms control, and put the international credibility of all parties at stake.

This. Also, the whole European stability depends on respecting existing borders. Russia's one-sided action threathens it's very foundation.

Naturally, changes should be possible, but only if it is a mutual agreement (like the German reunification or Czechoslovak separation) in accordance with the international law. Crimea is not the case.

There are a lot of skeletons in EU and U.S. closets and I'm always willing to condemn illegal and harmful actions by any government. But West in on the right side here.