Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

There is a difference: Ukraine is, what, a dozen times as large? And, except in Crimea, that would be all that is needed to make everyone forget about their disagreements and start fighting the common enemy: yes, even in the East. Any invasion outside of Crimea would be dreadfully bloody.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, Georgia f***ing started that war. Russia was not the aggressor.

If Russia invaded Ukraine, they would be the aggressor.

[ag]

Also, Georgia f***ing started that war. Russia was not the aggressor.

If Russia invaded Ukraine, they would be the aggressor.

Well, if it starts, it would start with Crimea declaring independence and calling up the Russians. In fact, unlike in Abkhazia or South Ossetia (both of which before the Soviet break-up were plurality Georgian, and for whose native populations Russians are, at best, protectors of convenience), Crimea has been plurality Russian (at least, by self-identification) since Stalin expelled the Tatars. Furthermore, Russia has retained the naval base in Sebastopol (itself and overwhelmingly ethnically Russian city).

And, of course, any Ukrainian government (Yanukovich included) would go haywire if Russian troops marched across the Kerch Straight. They would have to do something - not even attempting to retain control there would be viewed as High Treason throughout the country. In fact, Ukrainians, however sane otherwise, lose their bearing when they talk about those Russians in Crimea - many would love to deport them all back to Mother Russia. So, arguably, Russia could manufacture the case for being on the defensive with relative ease, if it wanted to. It would, in fact, be more straightforward than in Georgia: they would be defending ethnic Russians.

[Famous Mortimer]

1) That's not going to happen.

2) Even if it did, it would require Crimea to declare independence NOW. Totally different from South Ossetia which had been de facto independent for a decade before the war started.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, the PM resigned today.

I don't know who that would ever appease.

Maybe Yanyukovych is just trying to win international sympathy and look pitiful.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/30/us-ukraine-usa-sanctions-idUSBREA0T04O20140130

Congress is considering sanctions...

I think you have to include Russia in any sanction package... Putin may not be showing it, but he's practically encouraging a brutal crackdown.

[Famous Mortimer]

Parliament passed a law giving the protesters amnesty on the condition they leave government buildings.

Yanyukovych is doing a good job of PR. She really looks like he's willing to bend and it's the protesters who are unreasonable.

Of course, he's also the guy who poisoned one of his rivals and put another in jail on trumped up charges...

[ag]

2) Even if it did, it would require Crimea to declare independence NOW. Totally different from South Ossetia which had been de facto independent for a decade before the war started.

South Ossetia, at its best, had a population of around 100 thousand people. Before the Russian defense/invasion that was down to about 70 thousand. A sizable chunk (around a quarter of the total) of that were Georgians, who lived on fully Georgian-controlled land (about half the territory of SO at the time). Recent estimates of the population of South Ossetia average somewhere in the vicinity of 40 thousand people (around 50 thousand by official data, under 30 thousand by some independent estimates, some actually even lower, closer to 25 thousand). It seems, the outcome of Russian defense was not only to ethnically cleanse the place (and there are, basically, no Georgians left there), but also to remove around a third of the pre-existent Ossetian population as well. Overall, the population has halved after Russian intervention (dropped to barely a third of its late Soviet levels) Does not look like a dramatic humanitarian success - more like a catastrophe. I am pretty sure, if anybody really cared to report from SO, that is how it would have been covered.

Anyway, from what I read at the time, though Georgians might have been the first to start shooting, they seem to have been deliberately provoked (with Russian troops having been first assembled nearby). It would not be too hard to organize something similar in Crimea - Ukrainians could be easily provoked into some minor atrocity. However, one should remember, that if half the population of Crimea has to flee, it would be a million refugees.

[RodPresident]

In presidential election, opposition would go with a candidate with legal issues, Timoshenko (in prison), Klitschko (for living abroad) or go with a most safe option, like Yatseniuk? Can Tyahnybok upset going into run-off and cause a Yanukovich victory in a reverse 1998.

[Famous Mortimer]

They will probably go with Klitschko, legal issues be damned. The government has shown they are very PR conscious. They are not going to ban candidates from running, especially famous ones sure to attract Western media. It would invite more protests.

[CatoMinor]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/world/europe/ukraine-chief-loses-support-in-stronghold.html

Trouble for Yanukovych if he starts losing control in the east.

[Famous Mortimer]

Russia cites tapes of ambassador as proof the US is meddling in Ukraine.

Oddly though, tapes seem to prove the US isn't with the protesters, they are genuinely trying to sail a middle course between Russia and the EU.

First, they tell the EU to  off, they say they don't want Klitchko (the more radical opposition leader) in office, and they want to prop up a possible BS "national unity" government that Yanukovych will appoint.

[Silent Hunter]

The ambassador's comment about the EU is a sentiment shared by many of its citizens, I would say.

[Beezer]

And the sh**t is hitting the fan once again...

[Deus Naturae]

The police are now bombing the protestors.

[ag]

A lot of sh**t.

This is getting to be very dangerous. If Russians come in, it will be awful.

[retromike22]

A lot of sh**t.

This is getting to be very dangerous. If Russians come in, it will be awful.

Are we back to this?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60

[Peeperkorn]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the government is a bunch of corrupt thugs and the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.

[Franzl]

Well looks like I chose a good time to visit Ukraine last month, before the sh**t hit the fan...

[Cory]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

[MaxQue]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Nor would Ukrainians. It's one thing on which government and opposition agree.

[windjammer]

Time to massively help them against tyranny!

[Beezer]

Yes, I'm sure some of the neo-Nazi protesters occupying government buildings will do a fine job.

[Peeperkorn]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

I know, but I can see some kind of Russian militar interventionism if a pseudo civil war starts. It would be an obvious movement.