Ukraine Crisis

[Peeperkorn]

The Guardian:

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[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I suppose all this stuff with Russia just proves Sarah Palin right.

You mean Romney, when he said Russia and not China was the US's number one foe. Then he got hammered on and ridiculed.

Russia still isn't our foe. They aren't threatening the United States at all.

Russia still can quite effectively block American moves in foreign policy, as we saw in 2013.

Are you talking about Syria? Basically everyone agrees Russia did us a favor in that regard.

By preventing the U.S. from getting deep into this? Yes, but it's hard to deny it was a huge diplomatic victory for Russia and diplomatic defeat for the Obama administration.

I dislike Putin's regime as much as most of you guys, but I'm not going to be self-deluded by underestimating Russia.

[Person Man]

What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

[Cassius]

What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

Low. If anything it may end up being Obama going head to head with Putin. Merkel doesn't have the. Diplomatic power to take on Putin succesfully.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Appearently some ships of the Russian Baltic fleet arrived at Crimea as well.

[Person Man]

What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

Low. If anything it may end up being Obama going head to head with Putin. Merkel doesn't have the. Diplomatic power to take on Putin succesfully.

You would think that Merkel's FP  is more hawkish, closer and more ambitious than Obama's FP.

[Famous Mortimer]

The new Ukrainian government is basically a coalition of Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party and the nationalist Svoboda along with a couple of former Maidan activists. Vitali Klitschko's UDAR refused to join the government.

Meanwhile, some ex-Party of Regions MPs have formed a new group in the Ukrainian Parliament called "Economic Development". ED is led by Anatoliy Kinakh, a former prime minister under Leonid Kuchma back in 2001/02.

Current seat distribution in the Rada is apparently as follows (in brackets the change since beginning of this year):

Party of Regions 127 (-77)
Batkivshchyna 88 (-2)
UDAR 42 (+-0)
Svoboda 36 (+-0)
Economic Development 33 (+33)
Communist Party 32 (+-0)
Independents 91 (+53)
[Vacancies 1 (-7)]

Independent MPs have also come together to form a faction called Sovereign European Ukraine. They have 36 seats.

Both Economic Development and Sovereign European Ukraine support the interim government, which has a majority of 250 out of 449 seats.

[RogueBeaver]

UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

[MaxQue]

UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.

[ag]

UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.

Should have been done years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Completely agreed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

Low. If anything it may end up being Obama going head to head with Putin. Merkel doesn't have the. Diplomatic power to take on Putin succesfully.

You would think that Merkel's FP  is more hawkish, closer and more ambitious than Obama's FP.

What makes you think Merkel is anything remotely resembling a "hawk"? In the UN Security Council, she abstained on authorizing military intervention in Libya. Merkel is primarily driven by the desire not to be involved in any kind of trouble.

Politically, she has probably realized that she won't be able to fully abstain from this one... and it most likely annoys the hell out of her.

The image Merkel has abroad of being some kind of political mastermind probably makes most Germans chuckle. Because at home she has more the image of someone who prefers to sit things out. She isn't seen as a leader, but as a moderator who is balancing out the interests of different factions within her party and/or government while lacking a personal opinion on (/not giving a sh**t about) a lot of issues.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.

No, we need to keep a G8, but dump Russia and add Brazil. (Or to really troll Russia, add China in place of Russia.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin is scary...

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.

[RogueBeaver]

Putin is scary...

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.

Quoted for truth.

[Blue3]

Remember when Russia was all about "not intervening in the internal affairs of other countries"? 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Remember when Russia was all about "not intervening in the internal affairs of other countries"? 

Remember when Obama was?

[MurrayBannerman]

Putin is scary...

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.

Nor does any leader with a modicum of international self-interest and power.

[Cory]

Putin is scary...

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.

Nor does any leader with a modicum of international self-interest and power.

[jaichind]

See

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/

Russian news sources indicate that Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has defected to Russia.

My understanding is that most of the Ukrainian Navy resigned last week so if this ends up being true it does not surprise me.

[Frodo]

Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.

[jaichind]

Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.

Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.

[Frodo]

Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.

Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.

So what you're saying is Putin is likely to have learned his lesson from the Georgia incident (I am not about to call it a 'war') in 2008, and is unlikely to be following much the same script here that he did there?  

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Russia has never been happy about Khrushchev's transfer of the Crimea to the Ukraine and at least there is an existing autonomous republic it can use to provide a veneer of legitimacy for its takeover.  But there is no obvious border for a split of the rest of Ukraine.  I think the Russian strategy is to treat this as another Georgia where it lopped off the former Soviet-era autonomous districts along its borders. So while it will seek control of the Crimea and Sevastopol, I'm fairly hopeful that Putin will not make a play for the Eastern Ukraine.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.

Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.

Wouldn't Putin still be able to dominate the rump Ukraine economically in the same manner as he would a united, pro Russian puppet Ukraine though?