Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

[Peeperkorn]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

Seems like the guy knows what he is saying. Also, sounds fairly plausible - fits what I myself know.

[Peeperkorn]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

Seems like the guy knows what he is saying. Also, sounds fairly plausible - fits what I myself know.

Yeah, the scenario makes a lot of sense.

[moderatevoter]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

I thought he was referring to VK at first, but I now understand that wasn't the case.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

I thought he was referring to VK at first, but I now understand that wasn't the case.

FB has been taking over even in Russia. VK remains in use, but increasingly the people who could have such inside info are not there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

If Russia was to invade say the eastern half of the Ukraine, I think the US would start redeploying most of its military to eastern Europe, and see if Putin takes the hint.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

If Russia was to invade say the eastern half of the Ukraine, I think the US would start redeploying most of its military to eastern Europe, and see if Putin takes the hint.

It would make a lot more sense to be doing it before, not after. Because by then Putin's cost of getting out would be a lot higher. And, if US does not do something very radical very soon, he WILL occupy a lot more.

[Peeperkorn]

I'm not so sure about this possible invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

If we believe in Russia's justification that Putin wants to protect their people (I don't), many maps posted in this thread showed that ethnic Russians are a plurality in little enclaves surrounded by ethnic Ukrainians. An intervention (and annexation) against that zones would destroy the credibility of the Casus Belli defended by Moscow.

I have "evolved" in my previous thoughts and I think that Putin wants Crimea for the only reason of not losing in a future Russian's naval bases and the traditional Manifest Destiny of every Russian Empire of an available-even-in-winter military port and a dominant position in the Black Sea.

Year after year the possibility of an "European" and pro NATO Ukraine increases.

That and the pipelines... but I would not talk about it because I've read different and many times contradictory information of the issue and I'm not a specialist in energy geopolitics.

--

In other words, if Putin  hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.

[Cory]

In other words, if Putin didn't hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.

Well, IIRC he did say his inspiration in life was Napoleon Bonaparte. He might see the Western leadership as weak and consider this "his moment" to consolidate his legacy as a "great leader" for Russia.

[Bacon King]

Putin is the kind of historical figure whose downfall would be caused by an ill-conceived invasion of Russia. This analysis is useless however due to the fact that Putin is already in charge of Russia

[Middle-aged Europe]

Moscow Stock Exchange got extremely nervous today and the Ruble took a dive.

Maybe Putin's achilles heel is that he's too fixiated on political and military power so that he underestimates the extent his economy is interconnected with the world. Perhaps the best way to go about this is to find a way to make the Russian oligarchs sh**t their pants.

[King]

Perhaps the best way to go about this is to find a way to make the Russian oligarchs sh**t their pants.

I think that's the strategy with the economic summit boycotts.

[swl]

Good analysis from Malcolm Fraser: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/ukraine-theres-no-way-out-unless-the-west-understands-its-past-mistakes

Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

FIFA gave the World cup to Qatar, which is 10 times worse than Russia, they won't move the Cup out of Russia...

[windjammer]

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

[YL]

Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.

[Zanas]

Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.

They have been talking about it for ages. Of course that would make sense. One was built there during WW2 but it got broken by ice. Also the geological conditions seem to be very complicated to build a solid bridge.

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gazprom stock is collapsing.

According to SPIEGEL ONLINE, the company - which has the Russian government as its largest shareholder - has lost 45 billion Euro the last couple of days.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dmitry Medvedev posted a peculiar message on Twitter:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wonder if this could finally drive a wedge between Putin and Medvedev. Putin is ex-KGB, so doesn't seem to comprehend. Medvedev on the other hand was once a business executive himself back in the 90s.

[ag]

Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.

Land connection - sure. But it would not resolve the water problem.

[windjammer]

Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.

They have been talking about it for ages. Of course that would make sense. One was built there during WW2 but it got broken by ice. Also the geological conditions seem to be very complicated to build a solid bridge.

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

Taiwan was ousted without any problem, so why not Russia?

[ag]

Dmitry Medvedev posted a peculiar message on Twitter:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wonder if this could finally drive a wedge between Putin and Medvedev. Putin is ex-KGB, so doesn't seem to comprehend. Medvedev on the other hand was once a business executive himself back in the 90s.

The myth of good Medvedev is a fairy tail for six-year-olds. To begin with, Medvedev has no political life of his own: even if for some reason he were to revolt, it would cause no more trouble to Putin then a malfunctioning ball pen.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.

They have been talking about it for ages. Of course that would make sense. One was built there during WW2 but it got broken by ice. Also the geological conditions seem to be very complicated to build a solid bridge.

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

Taiwan was ousted without any problem, so why not Russia?

Can we please talk the events and viable solutions, instead of fantasy and excessive hyperboles?

I know this is Atlas and my call might be a fantasy as well, but deep down I'm still a naive fool believing we can somehow be reasonable.

[Hash]

This thread is a massive abortion. Make it stop.

[J. J.]

Well, if somebody does not want WWIII what s/he should do is

1. Immediately stop all negotiations with the Russians on all matters not having to do with the withdrawal from Ukraine. No contacts whatsoever on any matters - however minor or innocuous. The non-essential personnel at the embassy (and families) should be removed ASAP and in a very demonstrative fashion, US citizens advised to avoid traveling to Russia (and those resident there, advised to leave). Consulates outside of Moscow should be closed. Restrict issuance of US visas to the holders of the Russian diplomatic and service passports to the Consular Sections of the US embassies in Kiev and Tbilisi (continue stamping the visas into the regular passports in Moscow, to the extent that the reduced consular representation makes it possible).  Russians should be forced to sharply reduce their embassy staff and close their consulates as well. Encourage the allies to take similar diplomatic measures.

2. Immediately impose painful economic sanctions on Russian elites. The Magnitsky list should be expanded to include a few thousand people, at least (including the families of all the Russian MPs who voted to authorize the use of force in Ukraine). Put under the sanction regime all major Russian public and semi-public companies (including the likes of Gazprom). All financial transactions between US and Russia should be put under scrutiny. Russia should be put under notice that unless all troops are removed ASAP, all Russian assets in the US will be confiscated and used to finance the Ukrainian government (any attempt to preemptively remove such assets at this point should be summarily blocked).  Impose a special tariff on all Russian exports and imports to be dedicated to financing of the Ukrainian government.  Restrict the use of the US  airspace to all Russian air traffic.

3. Urgently remove all the restrictions on oil exports from the US. Guarantee, as much as possible, to the Europeans that their energy needs will be taken care of no matter what happens, as long as they join with the sanctions regime. Especially encourage the Turks to join in (they should not be too hard a sell - they are worried). Stress, that Turkish government will get the full support of the US in suspending the action of the Montreux convention on the Straights navigation: Bosporus has to be closed off ASAP. Lithuanians and Poles should be given guarantees of full support in closing the land transit to Kaliningrad.

4. Resume, very publically, the negotiations with the European allies on missile protection systems.  Make it clear that this is done in response to the new situation.

5. Start, as soon as practicable, major war exercises with the NATO partners in the region - both around the Black Sea and in the Baltics (as practicably close to St. Petersburg as possible). Reinforce NATO garrisons in Poland, the Baltics and in Norway. Negotiate with the Ukrainian government a few bases inside Ukraine (in friendly, pro-Western areas - but this would not only be Lviv, but also Sumy and Chernihiv, right on the Russian border). 

6. Another major war exercise should be conducted with the Japanese, around the Northern coast of Hokkaido. Support should be hinted to the Japanese claim on the Northern Territories. If Georgians and Turks agree, have the Turkish troops take positions on the LOCs near South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Have Moldovans and Romanians start very public negotiations about establishing Romanian bases near Transnistria.

7. At the same time, US diplomats should be rushed to Central Asia and other ex-Soviet states, offering guarantees of protection against the Russian invasion. Those visits should be very public - give them as much media coverage as possible, have Kerry himself go to Astana. The Kyrgyzstan airbase should be reinforced, if the Kyrgyz government allows (make it very hard for them not to allow).

If all this is done in rapid succession and decisively, there is still some chance of avoiding WWIII.

This.

However, I don't think this crisis will evolve into WWII.