Ukraine Crisis

[muon2]

I'm not so sure about this possible invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

If we believe in Russia's justification that Putin wants to protect their people (I don't), many maps posted in this thread showed that ethnic Russians are a plurality in little enclaves surrounded by ethnic Ukrainians. An intervention (and annexation) against that zones would destroy the credibility of the Casus Belli defended by Moscow.

I have "evolved" in my previous thoughts and I think that Putin wants Crimea for the only reason of not losing in a future Russian's naval bases and the traditional Manifest Destiny of every Russian Empire of an available-even-in-winter military port and a dominant position in the Black Sea.

Year after year the possibility of an "European" and pro NATO Ukraine increases.

That and the pipelines... but I would not talk about it because I've read different and many times contradictory information of the issue and I'm not a specialist in energy geopolitics.

--

In other words, if Putin  hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.

This is not so different than some of my thoughts on the other thread about separation. However, a week ago there was a diplomatic path for the US to act to reopen the Budapest Memorandum and subsequent basing agreement for changes in status for both Crimea (more Russian sphere) and Ukraine (more EU/NATO sphere). I don't see that path as clearly now given actions by Russia and statements by the US.

[ag]

Events. Pro-Russian "demonstrations" are storming the administration buildings in Odessa and Donetsk. The "demonstrators" (in the last few days they were being recruited in Russian social networks IN RUSSIA) are not at all numerous, but they are shooting. In Odessa, the besieged regional council has adopted a resolution AGAINST the Russian invasion.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Paralympics are scheduled to start in Sochi as planned, although all Western politicians are probably going to boycott.

[ag]

Paralympics are scheduled to start in Sochi as planned, although all Western politicians are probably going to boycott.

Given that the attention is no longer on Sochi and that the Russians are otherwise preoccupied, I would be scared to go, frankly. The security may well miss something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very much relevant to this thread.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

By a vote of the General Assembly, it was stripped from the Republic of China to give it to the People's Republic of China over the objections of the former and of the US.  The UN Charter still lists the USSR and not Russia as the veto power, so the 1971 precedent could be used to give the USSR veto to another former Soviet republic, not that I think that would happen.  Maybe an outside chance the GA would vote that the veto needs to be collectively agreed upon by the former Soviet republics, but even that is far-fetched.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Very much relevant to this thread.

I was thinking of the very same thing actually.

Also what Kalwejt said.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This thread is a massive abortion. Make it stop.

I thought green avatars were pro-choice?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

I agree that Russia is the logical choice, as is the PRC in the case of China, yet the UN has not always been constrained by logic.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

I agree that Russia is the logical choice, as is the PRC in the case of China, yet the UN has not always been constrained by logic.

Of course but it's a longshot. Beside, I don't think the other powers sitting in the Security Council would be thrilled with the precedent of removing one of them, regardless of what is going on now.

I find the Taiwan analogy quite ridiculous, as we're talking about a little island. Russia, as well as other permanent members, are not little and relatively weak islands.

[Beezer]

Very much relevant to this thread.

Well, I wish this guy was president.

[RogueBeaver]

Black Sea Fleet has told the Crimean Ukrainian forces to surrender by 0300 GMT or face a "storm."

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

[RogueBeaver]

Ukrainians say they got a similar ultimatum 2 days ago.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Black Sea Fleet has told the Crimean Ukrainian forces to surrender by 0300 GMT or face a "storm."

Meanwhile, the Russian TV is proclaiming that all Ukrainian forces as Crimea has already swore an oath of alliegance to the "Army of Crimea".

[King]

There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.

[Franknburger]

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

Oops - check out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

Russia seceded on December 12, 1991, two weeks before the USSR was formally dissolved. The last one to put out the lights was Kazakhstan.
[Not that having Kazakhstan replace Russia as UNSC veto power would really be much of an improvement....]

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

Oops - check out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

Russia seceded on December 12, 1991, two weeks before the USSR was formally dissolved. The last one to put out the lights was Kazakhstan.
[Not that having Kazakhstan replace Russia as UNSC veto power would really be much of an improvement....]

The other article says it did not, though I was probably incorrect. Thanks.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.

(Putin:)
If someday it may happen that a victim must be found
I've got a little list, I've got a little list
Of society's offenders who may well be underground
And who never would be missed, they never would be missed.

[The Mikado]

There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.

(Putin:)
If someday it may happen that a victim must be found
I've got a little list, I've got a little list
Of society's offenders who may well be underground
And who never would be missed, they never would be missed.

Stop stealing my gimmick.

[Franknburger]

Good analysis from Malcolm Fraser: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/ukraine-theres-no-way-out-unless-the-west-understands-its-past-mistakes

Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

FIFA gave the World cup to Qatar, which is 10 times worse than Russia, they won't move the Cup out of Russia...

... unless, of course, their main sponsors tell them to do so. Any statements from Nike and Coca Cola HQs so far (and anybody having an idea about their major stockholders)?

As to major mistakes of "the West": Germany has traditionally been opposed to the US' missile defence programme, as it would increase Russia's feeling of being encircled (a position on which the Schröder and all Merkel governments agreed). Poland supported the programme, being grateful for any US military installation on its territory (for understandable historical reasons). Don't know about the French and British positions in this respect. In any case, there hasn't been a common "western" position on how to deal with Russia and its security concerns - this is part of the problem.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There will be a great musical made about this incident one day.

(Putin:)
If someday it may happen that a victim must be found
I've got a little list, I've got a little list
Of society's offenders who may well be underground
And who never would be missed, they never would be missed.

Stop stealing my gimmick.

I knew it'll work.

Where have you been?

[Silent Hunter]

So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.