Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

The Foreign Ministry of Estonia (a country not exactly friendly with Moscow) raises questions about who was responsible for the sniper fire during the Maidan protests.

Would you mind first, actually, bothering to read the transcript of the conversation, before posting this here. It has been made public.

[Frodo]

The Kremlin is signaling they are prepared to bite the bullet if that's what it takes to annex Crimea.

[Nhoj]

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/03/who-will-protect-the-crimean-tatars.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPIEGEL ONLINE reports that Angela Merkel will boycott the G8 Summit in Sochi if the Crimean referendum isn't cancelled.

[RogueBeaver]

SPIEGEL ONLINE reports that Angela Merkel will boycott the G8 Summit in Sochi if the Crimean referendum isn't cancelled.

Good, but sanctions and expelling Russia from the G8 would be better.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SPIEGEL ONLINE reports that Angela Merkel will boycott the G8 Summit in Sochi if the Crimean referendum isn't cancelled.

Good, but sanctions and expelling Russia from the G8 would be better.

Why bother?  The G7 still meets from time to time and many of the more important things the G8 did have been transferred to the G20.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yeah, the G8 stopped being important several years ago.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

Well, to follow the old Cold War logic:

It certainly won't lead to WWIII as long as everyone involved remains aware that it could lead to WWIII.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

No.

[IceSpear]

Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

No. It's looking more and more likely that the West will acquiesce to Russia annexing Crimea under the guise of their phony referendum while giving them a slap on the wrist with sanctions. The real trouble will come if Russia ever tries this with a NATO country.

[ag]

Anyone think this will lead to WW3? I hope not...

No. It's looking more and more likely that the West will acquiesce to Russia annexing Crimea under the guise of their phony referendum while giving them a slap on the wrist with sanctions. The real trouble will come if Russia ever tries this with a NATO country.

Which, unless this is made painful, will happen earlier, than you think.

Crimea is, probably, as good as anschlussed. There will be no war in 2014.

[Simfan34]

ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

[Likely Voter]

If Ukraine were a member of NATO, Russia would never do what it is doing in Crimea...which is why they are doing it now. Putin was hoping to bring Ukraine into his "Eurasian Union" but now he sees a risk of Ukraine joining the EU and/or NATO sometime in the future and so he is taking what he can now before it is too late. In fact I suspect that he would rather keep Crimea as a disputed territory as that will prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

4 billion people dead worldwide would break Russia for good, yes.

[Blue3]

What are the chances of Ukraine joining NATO now?

[ag]

ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

I do not want Russia broken, for good or temporarily. I grew up there. The reason I want Russia contained is precisely that I do not want a war, which would break a lot more than Russia (and may kill many of those dear to me there). At this point we can just hope it is done in time.

No, I should not be Secretary of State God forbid

Anyway, an interesting tidbit. There was only one country back in 1938 that officially protested against Anschluss at the League of Nations. And it was Mexico.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

No, I am not Hungarian or a neo-fascist. However, their reaction is understandable for the same reason that non-Ukrainians in western Ukraine (Hungarians, Slovaks, Romanians, etc.) often vote for the Party of Regions.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

What are the chances of Ukraine joining NATO now?

Very low, NATO doesn't like dead weight.

[SPC]

Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

By that logic, was Churchill a fascist for supporting the Greeks?

[ag]

Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

No, I am not Hungarian or a neo-fascist.

The first is, probably, true.

[Simfan34]

ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

I do not want Russia broken, for good or temporarily. I grew up there. The reason I want Russia contained is precisely that I do not want a war, which would break a lot more than Russia (and may kill many of those dear to me there). At this point we can just hope it is done in time.

No, I should not be Secretary of State God forbid

Anyway, an interesting tidbit. There was only one country back in 1938 that officially protested against Anschluss at the League of Nations. And it was Mexico.

Funnily enough Mexico was also the only country to protest against Ethiopia's invasion by the (real) fascists in 1935. There is a roundabout in Addis Ababa called "Mexico Square", or at least there was, until it was obliterated to make way for some monstrous elevated rail.

[Sol]

It'll be interesting to see, once this is all over, what voting patterns in Eastern and Southern Ukraine look like - It wouldn't be shocking to me if the division was markedly reduced.

Is there any indication that Putin'll take over anywhere besides Crimea in the short term?

[ag]

It'll be interesting to see, once this is all over, what voting patterns in Eastern and Southern Ukraine look like - It wouldn't be shocking to me if the division was markedly reduced.

Is there any indication that Putin'll take over anywhere besides Crimea in the short term?

Well, at the very least, they are not very content with the administrative borders of the Crimea. Russian positions are a few hundred meters into the Cherson village of Chongar on the border. Whether they go anywhere else, remains to be seen. Might well do so.

[ag]

ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

I do not want Russia broken, for good or temporarily. I grew up there. The reason I want Russia contained is precisely that I do not want a war, which would break a lot more than Russia (and may kill many of those dear to me there). At this point we can just hope it is done in time.

No, I should not be Secretary of State God forbid

Anyway, an interesting tidbit. There was only one country back in 1938 that officially protested against Anschluss at the League of Nations. And it was Mexico.

Funnily enough Mexico was also the only country to protest against Ethiopia's invasion by the (real) fascists in 1935. There is a roundabout in Addis Ababa called "Mexico Square", or at least there was, until it was obliterated to make way for some monstrous elevated rail.

Whatever else one thinks of President Cárdenas, he knew his fascists when he saw them.