Ukraine Crisis

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Regarding Japan I don't see the Japanese following a US/EU boycott of Russia. Especially not with the present leadership.  

While not a boycott, I don't see Japan cozying up to Russia either, especially as long as Russia continues to hold onto the Northern Territories.  Besides, Japan already has access to a variety of energy options, so it certainly won't pay a premium for Russian oil and gas, even if Russia were to build the necessary infrastructure to export them to the Pacific.  I also don't see Japan being stupid enough or desperate enough to addict itself to below-world market Russian energy if Russia were to offer it any.  So if Russia tries to play diplomacy with its resources in Asia, it'll have to do so further south and at added expense, and I don't really see where Russia would be interested unless it decides it needs to contain China.

[ag]

Technology only takes you so far. At the end of the day oil and gas are nonrenewable resources, so in the long run prices will increase (unless we have a breakthrough on renewable energy) and I am a pessimist on this. We will get a few decades of cheaper energy and then prices will increase again. Demand is just growing too fast.

I do not think, at present, we have any reason to believe that oil and gas will be close to running out within the lifespan of anybody currently alive - or, for that matter, within the lifespan of their grandchildren. And if they do, then other technologies will become cost-effective and will replace oil and gas. I think it is a fairly safe prediction that the average oil and gas prices over the next century will be below those recently. Just notice how within a few years breakthroughs in shale gas and oil happened and what they are doing.

Finiteness of the non-renewable resources is undisputable. So is finiteness of life on Earth (this por planet will most certainly be eventually swallowed by the expanding Sun, you know). As far as the present discussion goes, both are equally relevant

[ag]

I
Regarding Japan I don't see the Japanese following a US/EU boycott of Russia. Especially not with the present leadership.

 

Yes, you are right. They will not follow US/EU. They will lead. If this particular government follows its natural inclinations it will be more radical then the rest of the West in confronting Russia.

You know, some Japanese politicians have already taken note that a substantial chunk of the current population of the Northern Territories happens to be Ukrainian. They might insist on their own referéndum

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

[ag]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

[ag]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask ))

[Velasco]

The interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk made a flying visit to the eastern oblasts, in a failed attempt to break the deadlock. He met some officials in Donetsk and made promises of devolution, preserving the status of Russian as second language and constitutional reforms before the elections. The Ukrainian authorities mark a red line between decentralisation and federalism, which they consider tantamount to separatism. In that meeting Rimat Akhmetov, the wealthiest man in Ukraine, urged Yatsenyuk to negotiate with the people that occupies the Donetsk governmental building. The oligarch made a passionate allegation about the hard situation of the eastern regions ("people wants that Donbass' voice is listened" and "respect") and said negotiation is the only right way. Yatsenyuk didn't met with the pro-Russian protesters. The interim PM said in TV that, in his opinion, Ukraine will need two years to overcome the crisis.

On a side note, seven people were killed in an explosion in the Skochinsky coal mine, near Donetsk:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/11/uk-ukraine-crisis-mine-idUKBREA3A0HC20140411

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask ))

Aren't the Kurils majority Russian, though?

[Zuza]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask ))

Aren't the Kurils majority Russian, though?

From 2010 Census: Kuril district (Iturup) - 4637 Russians, 349 Ukrainians (and I doubt that many of them can say a few words in Ukrainian...); South Kuril district (Kunashir, Shikotan, Habomai) - 7043 Russians, 466 Ukrainians. I don't know what people settled there after 1945, but even if most of them were Ukrainians, they assimilated long time ago.

[ag]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask ))

Aren't the Kurils majority Russian, though?

From 2010 Census: Kuril district (Iturup) - 4637 Russians, 349 Ukrainians (and I doubt that many of them can say a few words in Ukrainian...); South Kuril district (Kunashir, Shikotan, Habomai) - 7043 Russians, 466 Ukrainians. I don't know what people settled there after 1945, but even if most of them were Ukrainians, they assimilated long time ago.

If need comes, they will be Ukrainians. If need comes, they will be Hottentots, for god's sake

Good enough, at this point, that some people in Japan have already declared them Ukrainians

[RosettaStoned]

 How is this even a big deal? Almost all of eastern Ukraine is full of Russians.

[Gustaf]

So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

[Boris]

So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

Most of us don't speak Ukranian or Russian, so there's not really a whole lot in the way of discussion other than regurgitation of BBC News bulletins, mindless unfalsifiable speculation, or armchair sagery from our suburban homes.

[Gustaf]

So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

Most of us don't speak Ukranian or Russian, so there's not really a whole lot in the way of discussion other than regurgitation of BBC News bulletins, mindless unfalsifiable speculation, or armchair sagery from our suburban homes.

If only there were people in the West who spoke Russian and could transmit such information. Dang.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, no one is talking about the fact that Ukraine seems to be on the verge of civil war now?

Most of us don't speak Ukranian or Russian, so there's not really a whole lot in the way of discussion other than regurgitation of BBC News bulletins, mindless unfalsifiable speculation, or armchair sagery from our suburban homes.

If only there were people in the West who spoke Russian and could transmit such information. Dang.

I didn't know you were a fan of Russia Today, Gustaf.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.

And definitely better than the average Russian.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.

And definitely better than the average Russian.

Judging by several posts in this thread, I'm not sure that is a universal statement.

[Frodo]

U.S. voters agree Putin won’t stop at Crimea, but they’re unsure what to do

BY LESLEY CLARK
McClatchy Washington Bureau
April 14, 2014

WASHINGTON — With tensions rising over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, a new McClatchy-Marist Poll finds Americans ambivalent over how deeply the United States should be involved in the situation.

American voters largely support only squeezing Russia economically and politically, even as they display strong distrust of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

They give President Barack Obama mixed reviews for his handling of Russia’s move to lop off Ukraine’s Crimea region, but they offer no clear view of how the U.S. should respond to the crisis.

“Issues very often have huge partisan polarization and some clear marching orders, but this doesn’t have that,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in New York.
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Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/04/14/224397/us-voters-agree-putin-wont-stop.html#storylink=cpy

[Velasco]

Did anyone notice that Ukrainan government forces seized back an airport and gathered some tanks outside one of the towns controlled by pro-Russian groups?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/ukraine-armed-conflict-east

Vladimr Putin warned Merkel that Ukraine might be on the edge of a civil war. Hardly veiled threat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea_and_Sevastopol#Stances

I guess fighting a 13 year long war doesn't stop a country from being a pawn of Putin.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In response to the situation in Ukraine, BILD newspaper has initiated a petition for the removal of the Russian tanks in front of the Soviet War Memorial in Berlin-Tiergarten.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_War_Memorial_%28Tiergarten%29

That'll teach 'em a lesson!!

[Tender Branson]

Russian tanks and soldiers have now entered Eastern Ukraine, near Slawjansk:



Ukrainian tanks and soldiers are being deployed to the East as well:



http://kurier.at/politik/ausland/ostukraine-panzer-unter-russischer-flagge-fahren-auf/60.803.743