Ukraine Crisis
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Author Topic: Ukraine Crisis  (Read 233908 times)
MATTROSE94
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« Reply #1225 on: April 18, 2014, 08:30:03 AM »

What would our response be if Russia sent troops to conquer the rest of Ukraine and Estonia?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1226 on: April 18, 2014, 08:32:43 AM »

It's hard to know what's really happening in Eastern Ukraine. Anyway, in this site you can find good articles:

http://theconversation.com/ukraine-clashes-raise-stakes-in-struggle-to-control-the-donbas-25772
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ag
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« Reply #1227 on: April 18, 2014, 09:40:00 AM »


I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1228 on: April 18, 2014, 11:14:07 AM »


I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Problem is, those intelligence officers may have read more into their orders than they may have intended.  Even if they get privately punished later for doing so, the problem is Putin will likely find it impossible to undo they have done, since in order to do so he would effectively have to capitulate to the West.  However regardless of whether forces on the ground are exceeding their orders or they are following their orders, the effect is essentially the same.
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ag
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« Reply #1229 on: April 18, 2014, 11:32:23 AM »
« Edited: April 18, 2014, 11:35:07 AM by ag »


I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Problem is, those intelligence officers may have read more into their orders than they may have intended.  Even if they get privately punished later for doing so, the problem is Putin will likely find it impossible to undo they have done, since in order to do so he would effectively have to capitulate to the West.  However regardless of whether forces on the ground are exceeding their orders or they are following their orders, the effect is essentially the same.

I think, given the history of that gentleman, it is pretty safe to assume that the worst orders emanate directly from him (even if they are given in a way that makes them hard to trace). Thinking up any other theory is entirely unnecessary, as it would explain nothing that cannot be explained simply by assuming that Putin behaves as Putin normally does.

In particular, it is safe to assume that there is no promise, verbal or written, that Putin has not decided to violate exactly the moment before making that promise. That is his normal operating mode. So, if he promises you anything, you should assume that he is likely planning to do the opposite (if he has already decided on any course of action), or that his actions will be in no way constraint by the promise (if he has not).
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1230 on: April 18, 2014, 11:36:55 AM »


I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Intelligence officers can be ignored or removed from the equation... sometimes permanently.
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ag
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« Reply #1231 on: April 18, 2014, 03:28:54 PM »


I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Intelligence officers can be ignored or removed from the equation... sometimes permanently.

There is exactly no evidence of that happening. And ample evidence that they are very much in control. In fact, it is going far beyond intelligence officers: a lot of the people on the ground are simply Russian soldiers pretty much in uniform, just without insignia. This is pretty much documented at this point. In fact, at least some of these people seem to be the same as in Crimea last month - they have been recognized.
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Frodo
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« Reply #1232 on: April 19, 2014, 10:49:27 AM »

US troops are being deployed to Poland.

Also, Russia's economy was apparently already deteriorating even before sanctions were imposed
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1233 on: April 19, 2014, 12:01:28 PM »


That has been brought up before.  It's even entirely possible Putin has caused the crisis so as to give him an excuse for the economy once it becomes more apparent that it's gone bad.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #1234 on: April 21, 2014, 10:51:55 AM »

NY Times: rabble rousers in Eastern Ukraine confirmed to be Russian special forces:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/world/europe/photos-link-masked-men-in-east-ukraine-to-russia.html?_r=0
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windjammer
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« Reply #1235 on: April 21, 2014, 11:57:09 AM »

Well, after annexing some countries, maybe Russia will go bankruptcy Cheesy
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1236 on: April 21, 2014, 10:21:41 PM »

Stalin 2.0 murdering Tatars en masse already.
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ag
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« Reply #1237 on: April 22, 2014, 09:13:58 AM »


That one is, actually scary. It has no legal consequences (everything of consequence has been done multiple times already), but is a really dangerous sign. Whenever Putin makes statements of this sort, his intentions are almost the opposite: he is reminding the Tartars of the past, threatening them, that their fate Is in his hands. BTW, they already followed this up by prohibiting Mustafa Dzhemilev (the Crimean Gandhi, really) from returning to Crimea.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1238 on: April 22, 2014, 09:43:12 AM »

Has Mustafa Dzhemilev said what his plans are? He's still a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Also, what's up with Lyudmyla Denisova? She's from Crimea and she's Minister of Social Policy in the Ukrainian government. Has she said what she's going to do?
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ag
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« Reply #1239 on: April 22, 2014, 10:28:30 AM »

Has Mustafa Dzhemilev said what his plans are? He's still a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Also, what's up with Lyudmyla Denisova? She's from Crimea and she's Minister of Social Policy in the Ukrainian government. Has she said what she's going to do?

Dzhemilev is loyal to Ukraine. He has said it many times, that the Tatar movement will be doing whatever the Ukrainian leadership decides. But they also have to protect their people. They did delegate some representatives to work with the de facto authorities in Crimea. They are in a tough spot. They hate Russia, but they do not want to be deported again - and Putin is perfectly capable of that.

Some of the Ukrainian MPs from Crimea have resigned, but others are continuing. As for a cabinet member, I do not see why one would go: she is not representing Crimea, she is a Ukrainian citizen working in Ukrainian government. Crimea is not even her birthplace - she was born in Russia, in Arkhangelsk. Yes, she spent part of her career there - but, then, so did PM Yatsenyuk.
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ag
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« Reply #1240 on: April 22, 2014, 06:27:51 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2014, 06:38:39 PM by ag »

Well, Dzhemilev´s expulsion is confirmed. He has been spending most of his time in Kiev, as he is a Ukrainian MP. When he last went back to Simferopol, a couple of days ago, he was stopped at the border, but allowed in after a consultation with Moscow. However, as he was leaving back for Kiev today he was issued a notification, that he is banned from "Russian Federation" (which, of course, from the standpoint of the Russians now includes Crimea) for 5 years. As he himself says, he has no intention of visiting Russia itself (since 1986, when he was last released from a Russian prison, he has only been there once: a month ago, for negotiations with Putin), but  Crimea is another matter.

Interestingly, Dzhemilev's interview to Ukrainian TV was bilingual. The journalist spoke Ukrainian, he responded in Russian (tried using a Ukrainian word in his first sentence, but, basically, gave up). Of course, his native tongue is Crimean Tartar, and he had to learn Russian, but, being an old man, he never learned Ukrainian properly. Still, his jacket has a large Ukrainian flag pin on it - not doubts about his allegiance whatsoever.

And, just in case, somebody does not know who is Dzhemilev. He was one of the most distinguished Soviet dissidents. I have been hearing his name since before I can remember.  The Crimean Tartar non-violent campaign for return to Crimea has always been one of the most active and admired parts of the dissident movement in the USSR. Dzhemilev was its major leader since... forever. He spent many years in Soviet camps for this. He is, probably, the closest any Soviet people had to Gandhi or Mandela.
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Beet
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« Reply #1241 on: April 23, 2014, 03:58:47 PM »

If Ukrainians are really wary of Russia, why does there seem to be little indication? If the U.S. was under threat of invasion, at the very least, you would see Americans out in the streets in safe cities protesting and burning up pictures of Putin. Where are all the protesters from Maidan? This crisis is to a large degree psychological. The Ukrainian forces are demoralized. A large show of support in Kiev would do wonders for Ukrainian morale, for the overall narrative, as well as, IMO, for Western public opinion about Ukraine. Yet western Ukraine is silent.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1242 on: April 23, 2014, 10:26:01 PM »

America would have a chance against Russia.

Ukraine wouldn't.

That's why they aren't making a lot of noise. They are trying not to provoke a full scale invasion.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1243 on: April 24, 2014, 05:33:59 AM »

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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1244 on: April 24, 2014, 06:42:18 AM »

While my sympathies are with the Ukrainians. even I have to to say that's some pretty blatant propaganda.  At least it's closer to reality than what Putin's friends have shat out.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1245 on: April 24, 2014, 08:10:31 AM »

While I don't want to see Ukraine dismembered and I certainly don't like Putin, I just hope to see this place free of nationalistic propaganda.
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Beet
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« Reply #1246 on: April 24, 2014, 08:55:53 AM »

America would have a chance against Russia.

Ukraine wouldn't.

That's why they aren't making a lot of noise. They are trying not to provoke a full scale invasion.

Peaceful demonstrations in Kiev would provoke a full scale invasion?
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1247 on: April 24, 2014, 02:10:14 PM »


omg, I want to be friends with Local Separatist.  She seems like fun!
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ag
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« Reply #1248 on: April 25, 2014, 01:51:41 AM »

Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1249 on: April 25, 2014, 01:16:02 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2014, 01:17:38 PM by Night Man »

Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.
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