Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

One

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Also, in the last week TWICE a major Putin address was advertised, both time not to happen. The first time, it was supposed to be on Russian TV, local stations were told there will be a presidential address, so that they would clear their broadcast schedule - never happened. Then yesterday Putin had a meeting with the Duma members in Crimea. There was a major build-up to him making a big speech - in the end, the Russian newscasts only briefly showed him talking (late in the newscast!) and quoted a few words (not even his voice was broadcast). Seems like there was another last-minute change of plans.

Today major changes in the "governments" of the two "people's republics". Clearly, Russian-orchestrated.  Now there is a persistent rumor, something major is supposed to happen in the last week of August. God save us all.

[Famous Mortimer]

Here is my point of view on the situation in Ukraine:

This conflict is clearly escalating, and the Ukrainian government is lucky that the international attention has been focusing on other things. The loyalists are now shelling the big cities controlled by the rebels and there are many civilian casualties. It's a bit sad to see a European country bombing its own citizens in 2014, and getting away with it.

So now the loyalists are making progress towards the main cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and are clearly determined to get rid of the rebels, at almost any price. On the other side, the main political leaders of the rebels are fleeing now that things are looking bad for them. But the local guys, the normal fighters really believe that they are fighting against neo-nazis (which is not 100% false) and keep referring to a new Stalingard. They seem determined to fight until the last man.

This situation is a bit embarrassing for the European countries and the US who blindly supported the loyalists at the beginning, but now this conflict really has the potential to turn very ugly, and something has to do about it.

While the Western opinion is looking somewhere else, Putin is under heavy internal pressure to do something. The military conflict is about to be lost for the rebels, Putin knows it and anyway he also realized that they are not reliable at all. But he really has to do something, and the least he can do is to help the civilian population.  

So I think the convoy is not a trojan horse. The Ukrainian government is understandably paranoid and it would be a good compromise to allow international inspectors to verify it at the border. Ukraine is now afraid to be seen as the bad guys, so they are sending their own convoy too.

It's a good thing that both Russians and Ukrainians are sending humanitarian in Donetsk and Luhansk. They are also going to serve as human shields and fighters on both side will have to refrain from getting crazy.

Remember that many have been saying for weeks that this conflict needs to end in an honorable way for Putin. That's probably it. Both sides need to start negotiating soon, and the battles of Donestk and Luhansk must not happen because they would be really awful.

Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.

[Simfan34]

So, the Russians sent 250 white lorries to the Ukraine border with "food" inside. A possible trojan horse, or is it for real ?

Tell them to go back where they came from.

[Beet]

Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Not sure if the government should stop its offensive or not, but if Russian arms continue to pour across the border, and the government halts its offensive, it may not be able to regain the initiative. They may feel they are in a race against time. On the other hand, Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face, as well as care about the future feelings of the population there, as they want to reintegrate these cities back into the Ukrainian polity. These considerations need to be taken into account, as military dimensions are not the only dimension, there is also political dimensions.

But it would be better if the rebels could just be convinced to give up. If they really care about the people there, why are they fortifying themselves in the cities determined to fight it out? They have no chance of winning without Russian intervention. It seems these local "fighters" are awfully selfish, if they are determined to go down in a  blaze of glory and talk about Stalingrad where over 2 million people died.

[Simfan34]

The bastards must be stopped:

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

[ag]

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

[ag]

The bastards must be stopped:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

They have been doing this for months, just not in sight of the Western media. Who is supposed to be doing the stopping? Ukrainians tried doing it by pushing a force along the border - with the most disastrous results (it got sandwiched between the "rebels" on one side and the regular Russians on the other - and all but destroyed). As we speak, they got another army group surrounded on the border. But, of course, they are supposed to be thinking how to let Mr. Putin "save his face".

[ag]

Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Not sure if the government should stop its offensive or not, but if Russian arms continue to pour across the border, and the government halts its offensive, it may not be able to regain the initiative. They may feel they are in a race against time. On the other hand, Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face, as well as care about the future feelings of the population there, as they want to reintegrate these cities back into the Ukrainian polity. These considerations need to be taken into account, as military dimensions are not the only dimension, there is also political dimensions.

But it would be better if the rebels could just be convinced to give up. If they really care about the people there, why are they fortifying themselves in the cities determined to fight it out? They have no chance of winning without Russian intervention. It seems these local "fighters" are awfully selfish, if they are determined to go down in a  blaze of glory and talk about Stalingrad where over 2 million people died.

Especially after today, there is no longer any pretense that "rebels" have any independent decision-making authority. The potentially independent guys like Strelkov in Donetsk (a Russian from Moscow, but not really a Putin puppet, more of a murderous romantic with delusions of own grandeur) and Bolotov in Luhansk (actually, a local guy, with some ideas of his own) have been replaced by Russian-controlled soldiers. So, at this point, all questions should be addressed straight to Moscow. Why do they want to run street battles in the cities? Well, those are not their cities.  But, of course, we all should try to figure out how to "let Mr. Putin save his face".

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

Precious or not, if Putin can't claim some fig leaf, he is quite unlikely to stop what he is doing.  Thanks to the downed airliner, there really is nothing more he can hope to gain right now without starting a full-scale war and a complete break with the West.  While Putin might well do that if the alternative is being perceived as having backed down, I don't think he desires that.

[ag]

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

Precious or not, if Putin can't claim some fig leaf, he is quite unlikely to stop what he is doing.

I am afraid, this particular "if" part is superfluous here. He is unlikely to stop it whether he can claim a fig leaf or not. He can only be stopped.

[Simfan34]

A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.

ugh

[ag]

A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.

ugh

Well, he probably also thinks Holland does not exist.

[Miles]

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[swl]

Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.

Groups like Pravy Sektor and other militias are still fighting along with the Ukranian army. They are a small minority, but being the most fanatical, they are always on the frontline. If you prefer "fascists" rather than "neo-nazis", I am also fine with it, it does not make much of a different anyway.

The rebels may surrender to the regular Ukrainian army, but they will never surrender to these militias.

[dead0man]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

The latter part is a bit silly IMO.

In the Treaty of San Francisco, Japan had to give up claims on the Kuril Islands and now the US is backing away from this. Well, as long as America doesn't insist that Kaliningrad still belongs to Germany...

[ag]

Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.

Groups like Pravy Sektor and other militias are still fighting along with the Ukranian army. They are a small minority, but being the most fanatical, they are always on the frontline. If you prefer "fascists" rather than "neo-nazis", I am also fine with it, it does not make much of a different anyway.

The rebels may surrender to the regular Ukrainian army, but they will never surrender to these militias.

Most pro-Ukrainian irregular militias are, actually, composed of Donetsk amd Luhansk natives (batallions Donetsk, Azov, Aydar, ets.), who chose to fight the Russians. They are also the most ruthless. Pravy Sektor  proper is a tiny group. Yes, they are also fighting, but they are infinitecimal. Of course, this does not prevent their opponents from calling everybody "pravy sektor". But, then, again, they claim that everyone who has ever said "thank you" in Ukrainian is a fascist.

[Middle-aged Europe]

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Breaking: Ukraine claims to have attacked and partially destroyed Russian military convoy.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukrainische-truppen-greifen-russischen-konvoi-an-a-986396.html (in German, don't have time to look for an English link right now)

[Middle-aged Europe]

And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

[Tender Branson]

And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Time to mine the whole border to Russia.

[ag]

And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Time to mine the whole border to Russia.

That part of the  border on Ukrainian side is under full "rebel"/Russian control. Ukrainians tried to take it over, got surrounded (naturally, they were hit from one side by the "rebels", and on the other side by the Russians, against whom they could not respond for fear of being accused of attacking Russia) and almost wiped out (with great difficulty they managed to extricate part of the troops; a few more had to go into Russia, where some are still detained; a lot are missing).  They are now trying to severe Donetsk from Luhansk well within their own territory - they, basically, cannot operate near the Russian border at all (they claim that Russian artillery, based on Russian territory, has been in active action for quite a while - just out of sight of the Western media).

[Simfan34]

And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Good for them! An escalation, but necessary retaliation.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

[ag]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai

[Simfan34]

Haishenwai!