Ukraine Crisis
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Author Topic: Ukraine Crisis  (Read 233881 times)
PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald
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« Reply #1525 on: August 15, 2014, 02:56:09 PM »

Only if Germany gets Konigsberg back.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1526 on: August 15, 2014, 03:02:54 PM »

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai Smiley

I think you can understand the difference between the situations in Eastern Ukraine (for the record I don't support Putin's incursion there, though I couldn't care less about Crimea) and the Kuril Islands.
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ag
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« Reply #1527 on: August 15, 2014, 03:30:49 PM »

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai Smiley

I think you can understand the difference between the situations in Eastern Ukraine (for the record I don't support Putin's incursion there, though I couldn't care less about Crimea) and the Kuril Islands.

Yes, I see the difference. Russia many times solemnly pledged to recognize and protect the borders of Ukraine (including Crimea) whereas Japan has always claimed the Northern Territories (South Kurils is the Russian name - the Japanese have never acknowledged the four islands to be a part of the Kurils). If anything, the Japanese claim seems a lot stronger.

In any case, how about Haishenwai? Would take care of any Chinese objections that one, that is for sure Smiley
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1528 on: August 15, 2014, 03:35:50 PM »

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.
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ag
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« Reply #1529 on: August 15, 2014, 04:52:07 PM »

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai Smiley
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PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald
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« Reply #1530 on: August 15, 2014, 07:28:13 PM »

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai Smiley
Has Japan ever seriously claimed that area beyond their Russian Civil War misadventures?
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ag
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« Reply #1531 on: August 15, 2014, 08:10:40 PM »

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai Smiley
Has Japan ever seriously claimed that area beyond their Russian Civil War misadventures?

Did I say anything about Japan?
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ag
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« Reply #1532 on: August 15, 2014, 08:19:32 PM »

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

What else is Russia supposed to do for the invasion to be official? Have Putin notify Merkel in person?
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dead0man
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« Reply #1533 on: August 15, 2014, 09:19:02 PM »

It's time to stand up to the bully.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1534 on: August 16, 2014, 09:35:06 AM »

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

Huh
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ag
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« Reply #1535 on: August 16, 2014, 12:35:39 PM »

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

Huh

What makes you wonder?
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ag
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« Reply #1536 on: August 18, 2014, 11:36:02 AM »

Looks like in the last few days Russia brought in major reinforcements. Ukrainians are in real danger of a serious military defeat right now. At the very least, the war is escalating badly.
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swl
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« Reply #1537 on: August 18, 2014, 01:45:29 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2014, 02:11:09 PM by swl »

On something different, some members of Right Sector were arrested a few days ago. Two days ago the leaders of the group threatened to leave the eastern front and to walk on Kiev instead. After these threats, the members of the group were released today and some official at the Interior Ministry fired.

I think these groups are the key factor for a peace treaty. If Poroshenko manages to control them, it will allow the rebels and Putin to claim that the fascist threat has been stopped. But he cannot crack down on them too brutally, because they are still useful in the East and they are able to create a big mess in Kiev if they decide to.

Also, tens of civilian refugees fleeing Luhansk were killed when their convoy was attacked, both sides trade blame.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1538 on: August 18, 2014, 02:00:42 PM »

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

Huh

What makes you wonder?

They say it so blatantly?
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ag
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« Reply #1539 on: August 18, 2014, 02:54:29 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2014, 02:57:37 PM by ag »

On something different, some members of Right Sector were arrested a few days ago. Two days ago the leaders of the group threatened to leave the eastern front and to walk on Kiev instead. After these threats, the members of the group were released today and some official at the Interior Ministry fired.

I think these groups are the key factor for a peace treaty. If Poroshenko manages to control them, it will allow the rebels and Putin to claim that the fascist threat has been stopped. But he cannot crack down on them too brutally, because they are still useful in the East and they are able to create a big mess in Kiev if they decide to.

Also, tens of civilian refugees fleeing Luhansk were killed when their convoy was attacked, both sides trade blame.

"Right sector" is near negligible, at this point. It us but one of many volunteer units fighting on the Ukrainian side. Many of these are, basically, groups of easterners, fighting in their own territory. They are, sometimes, insubordinate - but fascists they are not. As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.

As for "fascists", etc. - this is hopeless. In the current Russian parlance EVERY Ukrainian is a fascist, unless he is in the pocket of the Russians. So is EVERY American, incidentally (unless his last name happens to be Snowden). Putin needs the "fascist threat" - he is not going to argue that it "has been stopped". Of course, the only true fascist threat in the world these days is presented by him and his government - and it HAS TO BE STOPPED.
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ag
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« Reply #1540 on: August 18, 2014, 02:58:08 PM »

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

Huh

What makes you wonder?

They say it so blatantly?

And?
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swl
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« Reply #1541 on: August 18, 2014, 03:26:57 PM »

As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.
It should not be too difficult to get rid of them then.
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ag
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« Reply #1542 on: August 18, 2014, 03:31:13 PM »

As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.
It should not be too difficult to get rid of them then.

Get rid of whom? Of a myth?
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swl
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« Reply #1543 on: August 19, 2014, 11:02:40 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2014, 11:08:39 AM by swl »

I have to disagree with you when you consider them negligible, and even more a myth. The proof is that it is enough for them to threaten Poroshenko for him to concede to their demands within one day.

And I am not the one who decided to give them so much importance. Whether it's because of an emphasis on them by the rebels and Russia, or thanks to good public relations, they somehow reached an importance much bigger that their number of fighters would indicate at first sight.

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ag
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« Reply #1544 on: August 19, 2014, 03:51:06 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2014, 04:00:54 PM by ag »

I have to disagree with you when you consider them negligible, and even more a myth. The proof is that it is enough for them to threaten Poroshenko for him to concede to their demands within one day.

And I am not the one who decided to give them so much importance. Whether it's because of an emphasis on them by the rebels and Russia, or thanks to good public relations, they somehow reached an importance much bigger that their number of fighters would indicate at first sight.


Well, considering that Russians tend to classifyl anybody who says "hi" in Ukrainian as a member of the "Right Sector", this is not surprising.  I will have to qualify my statement to say that, though nearly irrelevant in Ukraine, they are not irrelevant among those who get their news from (translated or not) Russian sources. Unfortunately, there is very little Ukrainians can do about it: it is not about Ukraine at all.

Once again: in Russian media these days ALL Ukrainians are fascists: simply by virtue of being Ukrainians. This includes Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, Klichko and all their followers. Most Russians are now convinced of this. This has exactly nothing to do with Dmitry Yarosh and his few known followers. Short of committing suicide and ordering his troops to do the same there is nothing Poroshenko (or anybody else) could do to satisfy the Russian public opinion at this point. It would be a fools errand to try. Kill Yarosh - the Russians will ask why havenīt you killed Yatsenyuk.

And no, Putin is not looking for an exit. He does not need a pretext to get out. I am not sure he wants to get in en force at this point (he might be reasonable enough to realize it would be too costly), but he wants Ukrainians to continue dying in large numbers for as long as possible, and for the area around Donetsk to stay miserable no-manīs land for as long as possible: for decades, if he can get his way. Ideally, he would do the same in the rest of Ukraine as well (and beyond) - as long as he cannot have the whole country to himself, that is. His goons are going to make sure that thousands more people die - the more the merrier.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #1545 on: August 22, 2014, 11:02:55 AM »

Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.
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Blue3
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« Reply #1546 on: August 22, 2014, 11:03:36 AM »

Invasion has begun.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1547 on: August 22, 2014, 11:06:36 AM »

Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.

They already bombed another Russian convoy last week.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #1548 on: August 22, 2014, 11:10:34 AM »

Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.

They already bombed another Russian convoy last week.
That was one of the many undeclared military convoys, not to mention there is no proof that ukraine actually hit it chances are it was bluster. This is russias official white humanitarian trucks now.
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ag
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« Reply #1549 on: August 22, 2014, 11:41:02 AM »

Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.

They already bombed another Russian convoy last week.
That was one of the many undeclared military convoys, not to mention there is no proof that ukraine actually hit it chances are it was bluster. This is russias official white humanitarian trucks now.

Seems like the main objective of those trucks (carrying, according to those who managed to peak in some of them, mostly, clean Russian air - plus some small quantities of salt, bottled water, tea and the like) is to bring in their drivers, who are going to fight - and the trucks themselves that the "rebels" might find useful.

Once again it seems a major escalation is about to begin. Russians are concentrating on the border. Ukrainians are trying to concentrate whatever they have left. August 24 is Independence Day in Ukraine. They are planning a military parade in Kiev - with the troops to march from the parade straight to the front (conscious imitation of November 7, 1941 parade in Moscow, of course).
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