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Author Topic: Ukraine Crisis  (Read 233921 times)
Simfan34
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« Reply #1650 on: September 07, 2014, 01:25:23 AM »

I don't know why, but this whole Ukraine thing (which I guess has moved on beyond Ukraine now) has made me genuinely angry in a way that I don't ever feel about foreign events, or even events here, except perhaps those relating to countries with which I am personally connected (i.e. Ghana and Ethiopia). I almost feel somewhat bad for getting so worked up about events there- after all, there are several ongoing conflicts far more deadlier, destructive, and depressing than this one. Indeed, if I were someone else I could see such sentiment considered racist- "caring more about the death of white people than blacks or browns" or something like that. And perhaps it's the fact that Europe is supposed to be a region that has moved passed this sort of thing, yes.

Often ag likes to make allusions to the Sudetenland- which at this point is certainly not hyperbolic (and references to Godwin's Law irrelevant). But I've come to think of it as more akin to the invasion of Ethiopia by the Fascists in 1935- which is perhaps why I feel so strongly about it. A naked act of imperialist aggression, barely condemned by the international community, little done to stop it, and whose initiator was openly praised by certain elements in the West. And completely unpunished. There was no war in Czechoslovakia- but there was in Ethiopia. Do the prophetic words of Haile Selassie that rang so true for their time-"it is us today, it will be you tomorrow"-as they do for ours?
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ingemann
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« Reply #1651 on: September 07, 2014, 02:18:17 AM »

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.
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politicus
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« Reply #1652 on: September 07, 2014, 05:40:22 AM »

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Germany became stronger relative to Britain/France by waiting. That goes for the entire 1936-1939 period.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1653 on: September 07, 2014, 06:17:21 AM »

I don't know why, but this whole Ukraine thing (which I guess has moved on beyond Ukraine now) has made me genuinely angry in a way that I don't ever feel about foreign events, or even events here, except perhaps those relating to countries with which I am personally connected (i.e. Ghana and Ethiopia). I almost feel somewhat bad for getting so worked up about events there- after all, there are several ongoing conflicts far more deadlier, destructive, and depressing than this one. Indeed, if I were someone else I could see such sentiment considered racist- "caring more about the death of white people than blacks or browns" or something like that. And perhaps it's the fact that Europe is supposed to be a region that has moved passed this sort of thing, yes.

Often ag likes to make allusions to the Sudetenland- which at this point is certainly not hyperbolic (and references to Godwin's Law irrelevant). But I've come to think of it as more akin to the invasion of Ethiopia by the Fascists in 1935- which is perhaps why I feel so strongly about it. A naked act of imperialist aggression, barely condemned by the international community, little done to stop it, and whose initiator was openly praised by certain elements in the West. And completely unpunished. There was no war in Czechoslovakia- but there was in Ethiopia. Do the prophetic words of Haile Selassie that rang so true for their time-"it is us today, it will be you tomorrow"-as they do for ours?

This x1000.
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ag
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« Reply #1654 on: September 07, 2014, 08:37:25 AM »

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.
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ag
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« Reply #1655 on: September 07, 2014, 08:41:10 AM »

And, btw, for one more comparison with the 1930s. Many of the most important Soviet military factories are in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. By allowing P to swallow Ukraine, you are allowing him to reconstitute thee Soviet arms machine. Guess, why does he want it?
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ingemann
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« Reply #1656 on: September 07, 2014, 10:17:44 AM »

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.

... and people starting wars, because they see Hitler in every corner, don't help keeping the peace.

Putin is not Hitler, Ukraine are not Czechoslovakia and 2014 are not 1938.
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ag
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« Reply #1657 on: September 07, 2014, 10:39:43 AM »

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Putin might not be Hitler, but appeasing him will have the same effect.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.

... and people starting wars, because they see Hitler in every corner, don't help keeping the peace.

Putin is not Hitler, Ukraine are not Czechoslovakia and 2014 are not 1938.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1658 on: September 07, 2014, 01:12:07 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2014, 01:22:37 PM by Governor Varavour »

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

No. That is completely wrong. Had Britain and France (and I'm guessing Czechoslovakia, and maybe even Poland) fought the Germans over an invasion of the Sudetenland they would have won decisively and rather quickly. Hitler probably would have been ousted in short order by the more conservative elements in the Heer and the Junkers (the same sort of people who mounted the Valkryie plot) for his recklessness. Had they confronted him over the Rhineland it would ended even faster.

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Unlike you, I live in Mexico. I am safe. It is you who will be fighting and/or being killed when the war starts. I would think, you would want to prevent that. Or else, move here:)

This is NOT about Ukraine - like it was not about Czecoslovakia back then. It is anout peace in Europe.

... and people starting wars, because they see Hitler in every corner, don't help keeping the peace.

Putin is not Hitler, Ukraine are not Czechoslovakia and 2014 are not 1938.

Surely you think that we in the 21st century ought to be above wars of state aggression and blatant conquest? I'm struggling to think of the last time this happened, when a country just invaded another one with the intention of annexing non-disputed territory. The first Gulf War? And the last sucessful one- the invasion of Portuguese Timor? Or Operation Polo, if you want to make an exception for colonies (although that might not be the best example).

That was in 1947. The idea that the soldiers of one country should not be able to just march into another country and take over its sovereign territory merely because they want is one of the more crucial parts of the "international order". I'm not sure how you can act so blasé about this.

People- or at least ag, I imagine, myself, and others here- aren't making the comparison to Czechoslovakia out of mere hyperbole. It is being made because of the consequences it brought- which is why I prefer to make the comparison with the invasion of Ethiopia.The invasion emboldened not just Mussolini to engage in further conquest, but showed the whole world that the "international community" had no intention of stopping the wars of aggression they had proclaimed outlawed just a few years prior- encouraging further aggression by Japan and, yes Gernany.

Thus the truly disturbing thing about this is not just that it shows Putin that the West is unwilling to truly resist acts of aggression, but it shows tyrants the world over that the "international community" won't do much if they were to decide to march into a neighboring country one day with the aim of taking over a province or two- "if Putin could do it, why not us?" "Indeed, not only do they stand by idly doing little more than finger-wagging, but they sell him naval ships, invite him to their get-togethers, invest in his country, have their companies change their maps to show his new conquests, take money from his rich friends, and even have their leaders attend his birthday party!".

The consequences of Western inaction extend well beyond the Ukraine or Europe,  it is an event with potential to create instability on a global scale.

At least Hitler had the courtesy to be open with his aggression.  Putin seems to take us all for dunces with their talk of "polite people", "self defense forces", and "volunteers", not to mention Soviet-style referenda.
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« Reply #1659 on: September 07, 2014, 02:02:57 PM »

Czechoslovakia comparison has one key flaw. There were no nuclear weapons back in the 1930s. If  you think you can have a NATO-Russia clash without someone, at some point, pushing the button, then you're delusional. That's why Putin won't be invading any NATO member state. That's why NATO won't intervene militarily in Ukraine.

I see that for some of you the only sign of "action" would be blowing something up, and whatever  NATO, or the United States, or the European Union are doing, you'd be screaming about appeasement, but there are still many other avenues to stand up to Putin and help Ukraine without playing out to certain posters apocalyptic fantasies. 



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Beet
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« Reply #1660 on: September 07, 2014, 02:53:28 PM »

The whole discussion about blowing things up is irrelevant because it's not going to happen. Putin's actions seem to show that he does value his relations with the West, because otherwise he would have "taken Kiev in two weeks" or so he says. For that reason it's a bit of a straw-man.

The problem is that even far milder actions (like France cancelling the sale of Mistral warships, or ejecting Russia from SWIFT) that would still play significantly into Putin's calculations, are not being considered because of short term economic calculations, as well as the 28-nation unanimity rule for any action to be taken. And since Obama does not seem to want to move ahead of the E.U., Slovakia has an effective veto on not only the whole E.U. bloc but also the U.S. It's the extremely tepid Western response than emboldens Putin, as of course he will move forward if he sees no cost to doing so (as in Crimea). Supplying weapons to Ukraine should be on the table, if not decided upon. After all, even during the Cold War, the West supplied weapons to countries fighting against Soviet domination (Afghanistan) quite successfully, whereas the Soviets supplied the North Koreans and North Vietnamese likewise. None of this implies a direct confrontation.
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ag
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« Reply #1661 on: September 07, 2014, 03:50:09 PM »

Czechoslovakia comparison has one key flaw. There were no nuclear weapons back in the 1930s. If  you think you can have a NATO-Russia clash without someone, at some point, pushing the button, then you're delusional. That's why Putin won't be invading any NATO member state. That's why NATO won't intervene militarily in Ukraine.

I see that for some of you the only sign of "action" would be blowing something up, and whatever  NATO, or the United States, or the European Union are doing, you'd be screaming about appeasement, but there are still many other avenues to stand up to Putin and help Ukraine without playing out to certain posters apocalyptic fantasies.  


I do not want anything blown up - whether with conventional weapons, or with nuclear. Most of all, I do not want Moscow bombed - I have family there. It is precisely because of this, that I firmly believe in most severe non-military measures: these have to be adopted ASAP. Putin should understand that he is facing people who are willing to make it very painful for him, even if it is very costly for them. And if he does not understand this, then those around him should understand it well enough to get rid of him. The half-measures that have been taken up till now make him believe that he is dealing with a bunch of pussies, who will not dare to stop him. Because of this, he will continue pushing forward - until he hits that red line that makes military conflict inevitable. He should be stopped before that - not there. Because once you get to the line, it is too late.

Merely the fearfulness of the consequences is not enough to prevent them happening. WWI was called "a war to end all wars" for a reason - everybody KNEW how fearful a modern war would be. Nevertheless, the same generation had to fight another war - much more dreadful than the first.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #1662 on: September 07, 2014, 04:00:21 PM »

Czechoslovakia comparison has one key flaw. There were no nuclear weapons back in the 1930s. If  you think you can have a NATO-Russia clash without someone, at some point, pushing the button, then you're delusional. That's why Putin won't be invading any NATO member state. That's why NATO won't intervene militarily in Ukraine.

I see that for some of you the only sign of "action" would be blowing something up, and whatever  NATO, or the United States, or the European Union are doing, you'd be screaming about appeasement, but there are still many other avenues to stand up to Putin and help Ukraine without playing out to certain posters apocalyptic fantasies.  


I do not want anything blown up - whether with conventional weapons, or with nuclear. Most of all, I do not want Moscow bombed - I have family there. It is precisely because of this, that I firmly believe in most severe non-military measures: these have to be adopted ASAP. Putin should understand that he is facing people who are willing to make it very painful for him, even if it is very costly for them. And if he does not understand this, then those around him should understand it well enough to get rid of him. The half-measures that have been taken up till now make him believe that he is dealing with a bunch of pussies, who will not dare to stop him. Because of this, he will continue pushing forward - until he hits that red line that makes military conflict inevitable. He should be stopped before that - not there. Because once you get to the line, it is too late.

I'm very glad we're in agreement on this.

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That is true, however, neither Allies not Axis had a capability of whipping out entire nations by pushing the button. We're living with the nuclear weapons for almost 70 years now and during that time, the humanity faced crisies of far greater magnitude than current Ukraine crisis, yet no one ever dared to cross the line (and it's not like people with cool heads were always in charge).
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ag
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« Reply #1663 on: September 07, 2014, 04:01:52 PM »

The whole discussion about blowing things up is irrelevant because it's not going to happen. Putin's actions seem to show that he does value his relations with the West, because otherwise he would have "taken Kiev in two weeks" or so he says. For that reason it's a bit of a straw-man.


The reason Putin has not taken Kiev is not so much that he fears the West, as that he does not have the force to hold it then. Yes, Russian military has strengthened in the last few years - but it is still far from its old Soviet self in readiness or capacity. And "taking Kiev" would imply then occupying a large territory - in the face of a major partisan war that would inevitably start, and would likely spill into Russia. It is doubtful, the Russian army would be able to effectively stop it fast. To put it in another way, "taking Kiev" means that the pipelines will be blown up - and he still wants to sell gas, because that is all he has to sell.
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ag
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« Reply #1664 on: September 07, 2014, 04:09:40 PM »



That is true, however, neither Allies not Axis had a capability of whipping out entire nations by pushing the button. We're living with the nuclear weapons for almost 70 years now and during that time, the humanity faced crisies of far greater magnitude than current Ukraine crisis, yet no one ever dared to cross the line (and it's not like people with cool heads were always in charge).

But things came very close a few times. Korea, Berlin, Cuba, etc... Do you really want to bet it could not have crossed the line back then? And why not now? At least, by the 1970s the lines were firmly drawn - the rules of the game were known. It is a lot less clear today.

What happens if Putin decides to test those NATO pussies and goes into Narva? Will the US step back and sacrifice - the eminently sacrifaceable - Estonia, in order to avoid the war? Well, that would  mean you, guys, are naked in Poland. And if they do not sacrifice Estonia, what exactly are they going to do - somehow defend Estonia against the invasion without defeating the Russians in the field?

This is why, there should have been a massive deployment of US and Western European troops on the frontier. The Russians should know that they cannot enter Narva without directly attacking the Americans - physically attacking American troops. They should also know that any further attempt at mischief would be dramatically costly and painful. We, simply, cannot afford any ambiguity on what Western action would be.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1665 on: September 08, 2014, 11:29:55 AM »

Austria to send soldiers to Ukraine ...

... if somehow Ukraine/Russia/others manage to set up a peacekeeping mission for the East.

http://www.thelocal.at/20140908/austria-could-send-soldiers-to-ukraine
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #1666 on: September 08, 2014, 03:13:44 PM »


Why is Austria supporting a Nazi-loving apartheid states? Sad
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swl
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« Reply #1667 on: September 10, 2014, 04:56:21 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2014, 05:00:49 AM by swl »

Unofficial translation to the protocol signed in Minsk:

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The ceasefire is very fragile. The exchange of prisoners is still going on. Poroshenko will introduce a bill to the parliament next week offering more autonomy to the Eastern regions, but rejects federalization.
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dead0man
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« Reply #1668 on: September 10, 2014, 05:57:12 AM »

Poor Ukraine....you've been boned again.  I don't know why anybody with means would stay.  It's obvious the rest of us don't care and will do almost nothing to help if Putin decides he wants a little more (and he will).  Hopefully Hillary will have bigger balls than Obama.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1669 on: September 10, 2014, 09:28:27 AM »

Obama's balls are not the problem here.
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swl
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« Reply #1670 on: September 10, 2014, 12:49:50 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2014, 01:03:06 PM by swl »

If you thought that the far-right battalions were an invention of Russian propaganda and would not create any problem:

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/know-your-volunteer-battalions-infographic-363944.html
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ag
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« Reply #1671 on: September 10, 2014, 01:14:06 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2014, 01:20:11 PM by ag »


Azov is an actual right-wing neo-fascist battalion - at least, its leadership is (most of the fighters by now are there simply because it was a fighting unit which they could join - they have been taking all volunteers). Unlike the Right Sector, at least, this one is not a fiction. It, also, should not be compared to the other units - it IS the one about which this is well-known and acknowledged by most Ukrainians as well. In fact, I heard a very detailed analysis of this that had been broadcast on Ukrainian TV.

The other volunteer units, for the most part, are not ideologically similar. Yes, they are real irregular forces, some of them pretty ruthless - but they do not come from the same ideological core as Azov. And, in any case, Azov is precisely local, Eastern Ukrainian - that is where such views are a lot more common. it is not a Western Ukrainian import.

Then, again, these sorts of statements are a lot more common among the "Novorossiya" fighters and among the Russians in General. They are all convinced that Poroshenko is, really, a Waltzman - and are not at all embarrassed about saying that (no more embarrassed than they are about, say, spotting Swastika-like tattoos). At this point, such views (sans accusing comrade Putin himself) come close to being Russia´s official ideology. They are most definitely the official ideology of nearly the entire "Novorossiya" leadership. This is not what Putin and most of the Russians call "fascism" - that is healthy patriotism for them. As far as they are concerned, Ukrainians are fascists not because of the Azov (ideologically, they find precisely these guys the most similar and easiest to understand) - but because they do not consider themselves Russian and even sometimes dare to speak Ukrainian. BTW, same is true of the Jews - they are not Russian, and, therefore, they are fascist. The word "fascist" in the current Russian parlance simply means somebody who does not like the Russian policy of reclaiming its rightful territory. That is as simple as that.

There is a good reason Ukrainian Jews are so united in support of their "fascist" government. They know what Russian "anti-fascism" means - and it means nothing good for the Jews.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #1672 on: September 11, 2014, 11:00:34 PM »

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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/EU-to-slap-new-sanctions-on-Russia/articleshow/42318558.cms
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1673 on: September 18, 2014, 02:18:57 PM »

Let's try giving the latest news a Russian spin:

<strawman>
Ukrainian fascist thugs cross border and attack the hands of the Western media that feed them.
</strawman>
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1674 on: September 20, 2014, 11:40:58 AM »

So what's this? They've just surrendered? I mean they've promised to give "self-rule" to the occupied regions, promised to stop even flying planes in the region, and just totally cave in completely with the rebels only bound by a completely hollow pledge to remove "foreign mercenaries" from the region. I mean for Christ's sake, Kuchma was representing Kiev. Kuchma!

I mean I couldn't entirely believe what I was reading. The only logical explanation would be there's been some sort of internal coup (by who?) that we are unaware of. It's just so unbelievably sudden.

I mean I can't believe I'm saying this but I can understand, at least after this, why people would support the far-right fronts in Ukraine. Their government has completely and suddenly capitulated. Putin has unambiguously won.
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