Ukraine Crisis

[dead0man]

Maybe they realized they were not going to get any serious help from the only people that could possibly help them so decided to cut their losses?  We've gotten into the habit of hanging Eastern Euros out to dry when the bear growls.

[Simfan34]

Maybe they realized they were not going to get any serious help from the only people that could possibly help them so decided to cut their losses?  We've gotten into the habit of hanging Eastern Euros out to dry when the bear growls.

I was thinking that could be it, that they contacted the usual people for help against the renewed offensive and came up empty handed; and and this point decided to cut their losses, as you said. But I don't get such a sense, and I will admit this is coming from only one or two articles I've read on the agreement, (I should probably check the good "The Interpreter" blog and Twitter*). Poroshenko is being feted in Washington as we speak, I would think that had we deserted Kiev he would not show up.

I mean I'm at a loss to understand what has happened here. I know the rebels have made considerable gains, but I'm not completely sure how much they've taken. The Ukrainian National Security Council has made maps of the situation, that, besides being as far I can tell honest, are quite detailed and well done in general (with the exceptions of their decision to unhelpfully overlay the two oblasts with the Ukrainian flag, confusingly marking cities that I doubt were ever controlled by the separatists as "liberated", and slightly-too-large symbols for troop positions), but the last one was from a week ago at least until last week.

Either way it does seem things have taken a turn for the worse, but I do not get the impression this is an agreement consented to out of desperation. I mean Kiev may know something we don't, some sort of ultimatum from Putin to bend over or face a full South Ossetia-style invasion in support of the separatist entities in the Donbas (and perhaps the formation of similar "self-defense militias" across the whole of the part of the country that the Donbas entity/ies seeks to take over) that forced them to fold the way they did. I mean, am I misreading the BBC article on this? Let's look at what I'm reading and what I'm concluding and tell me if I'm unreasonable.

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So, first off, Kiev (and I guess we as well) has stopped caring about these "humanitarian" convoys of Russian army trucks that have been painted white, being driven by Russian soldiers, and are carrying who knows what (remember they all were so empty, too?) that are now coming into the country at their leisure. And who said it was "without Ukraine's authorisation"; the article makes it sound like the comment came from Moscow rather than Kiev. The fact they felt free to mention leads one to believe Moscow isn't asking for permission at this point and that Kiev isn't terribly bothered by it. This is strange.

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I mean, "move back their heavy weapons"? Just as the separatists never had any Buks, right? I mean they have the luxury of having a whole other country, and not a small one, either, in which to hide their weapons from inspectors. Obviously Ukraine can do no such thing. While I'm leery of the OSCE as an organisation, the monitors are good people, but they can only see what the separatists allow them to see (remember how the observers were simply blocked for days from seeing from seeing the MH17 crash site by the separatists, some of whom appeared to be drunk and whose apparent leader went by the nom de guerre of "Grumpy"?) and even then what they are shown might not be, well, real (see note below). Or will things somehow magically manage to be different this time around?

And the representative of Kiev is Leonid Kuchma? Perhaps I'm seriously mistaken about Kuchma, but this guy was essentially Yanukovych 1.0. Indeed it's probably the other way around, Kuchma was far worse, so Yanukovych being Kuchma 2.0 (beta edition). This is the same guy who had journalists murdered, tried censoring the media, sold arms to Saddam Hussein, was the one who made Yanukovych Prime Minister in the first place, fled the country when he lost, and enthusiastically endorsed him in 2010. You could very well call Putin Kuchma 3.0- he's certainly taken after him, albeit more competently. The two are rather chummy. So you have to wonder who in this government (which I think had re-opened charges against him for the murder of that journalist) would have considered him for the post, even just as the leader of the delegation. God forbid he was actually negotiating. So this is bizarre.

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Ah, Kiev has consented to not get rid of the separatists running amok in the Donbas, i.e. they're not going to even try. And then there's that "self-rule" insanity, which I'll get to in a moment. But they've even agreed to not fly planes over their own airspace. Meanwhile the separatists had no planes for the Ukrainian Army Air Defense to shoot down with a Buk back in July, and as far as I am aware they still don't. Meanwhile the separatists are amorphous (and disorganised) enough to basically act as they please and pin the blame on some other local "self-defense force", which of course is what Putin has been doing the whole time. So this doesn't actually stop the separatists from doing anything while it represents a major concession for Kiev.

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A concession from the separatists, at last. But, oho, there "aren't any Russian soldiers in the Ukraine", now are they? So this means the separatists do not really have to do anything, it would seem. Because if Kiev and the West were correct the the actual implementation of this condition would mean the territories controlled by the separatist entities would be mostly empty, except for, well, civilians. But of course that's not how they see it, now do they? So nothing happens

And this same old Russian false equivalency! What mercenaries are fighting for the Ukrainian side? Actually, what actual mercenaries are involved in this conflict, for that matter. I was not under the impression that Blackwater or Executive Solutions were active in the region. Perhaps it's just a matter of translation but I could easily see this condition being ridiculously meaningless as it would seem to be and the original Russian referring to actual "mercenaries" as opposed to "foreign fighters" or something more pertinent. I mean I want to read the full text of this thing. I'm hoping it isn't as absurd as it appears to be here, but I'm expecting to find an agreement that is blackly comic in its resemblance to an exercise in how to design a treaty as lopsided as possible. I'd probably cry and laugh.

[Simfan34]

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Wait, what? I needed to read another article in the Telegraph to make sure I what I was reading was correct. I had been under the impression that the two oblasts had been given autonomy, not the separatists themselves. And an amnesty? An amnesty? For the "terrorists"? Does this mean, for example, Igor Girkin is now free from any risk of prosecution for his actions? Or the militants who shot down MH17- they are covered by this amnesty for "participants of events in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions"?

So let me get this, the separatist entities are actually recognised as extant by Kiev, actually handed governing powers, and allowed to "policing powers" for a period of three years, which would include when this local "election" is held? So they are going to allow the separatists to operate freely where they are now, and come this "election", held while the separatists are "policing" the region, they are going to allow the winners of this "election" to take control of the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts?

So Kiev is promising to not just tolerate, but fully legitimise, the complete handover of the two oblasts to the separatists? What? And these separatist-run oblasts, whose authority would be recognised by Kiev without Kiev's authority being recognised by the... entities, will also be allowed "the possibility for local government bodies to "strengthen good neighbourly relations" with their counterparts across the border in Russia." I mean I haven't a clue what this actually is supposed to mean but it's clearly nothing good. Who put it there?

Just what is all this? Yulia Tymoshenko is quoted as saying that this constitutes "complete surrender" and that the "decision legalises terrorism and the occupation of Ukraine," which is completely accurate, pedantry about the word "terrorism" aside, unless there's something going here that both Yulia and I don't know. Serhiy Taruta, the (actual, for now) Governor of Donetsk Oblast, told the BBC that its inhabitants would feel "raped" if the law came into effect, asking, "where are we - in Ukraine or Russia? What did we fight for? What did our guys die for?" Again, the guy is completely on point. Not only are the recognised authorities shortly going to be armed separatists, who in the meantime, will have the power to arrest, detain, torture, etc, anyone that they do not like, but these are the very same armed separatists that the government has spent the better part of a year trying to defeat. I don't know what the Ukrainian soldiers would have died for, either, although I suppose this fellow would best be advised to leave the Donetsk Oblast/People's Republic while he still can lest he find himself shipped to Lubyanka in the name of "good neighborly relations".

Again, I'm wondering who wrote this- apparently it was proposed by Poroshenko himself? I mean one wants to believe this is a capitulation made in the face of tremendous pressure, it is the only way I could imagine this would be seen as acceptable. But, and perhaps they see things differently than I do, the present condition does not seem to merit folding so completely. It is possible Russia made some sort of threat to significantly escalate the conflict, as I suggested before, but you would think they would at least have informed the other parliamentarians of this (it was a closed session, after all), if not just put it out for all the world to see, which has generally been their MO. They would at least signal that this was made under tremendous pressure, and they weren't happy about it.

But if it was really out of a desperate desire to stop something from happening, or because of the refusal of the West to do more, I don't think the government would act as they are now- as if they've solved the crisis completely and that everything will be returning to normal shortly! People are angered by this and you'd imagine politicians would be eager to calm an angry populace, particularly this one, and one going to the polls in a month, by going and saying things like "sure, we caved in, but if we hadn't, half the country would have been occupied by the Russian army by now instead of the bit they have now". But as far as I am aware they aren't (correct me if I am wrong).

This is why I'm led to speculate that something has... happened behind the scenes in Kiev. I say this not only without a shred of evidence to support my thoughts, but also in near-complete ignorance of how this agreement was passed, and how holds what power in the government. But it must be kept in mind that Petro Poroshenko was initially an ally of Kuchma before breaking with him! One is led to believe that his "bloc", perhaps the people like him in particular (with business interests with Russia) were able to persuade him (and other relevant actors) that this was getting excessive and they should cut their losses lest their interests suffer any further. Or something like that. I don't know if there is a tally for the vote on this agreement, but it should be kept in mind the present Parliament still is the same one elected in 2012, i.e. 40% of its members belong or formerly belonged to the Party of Regions. So it does not seem impossible for such a thing to be passed in the face of "nationalist" resistance. It is all so bizarre, and just sad.

✱ I really only first used my Twitter account to follow what was going on with MH17 and followed a bunch of reporters and officials- you get a rather satisfied feeling of seeing things happen well before the BBC reports it or whatnot. (Although you end up checking the page to see if they've reported it already) A good example of this was when the OSCE observers first went to the refrigerated train in Torez, where the "people" "working" at the crash site had stored the bodies of the victims. Being able to see things unfold in real time is rather interesting.

Things, as you may recall, were especially interesting after the observers left- along with all the very serious "security people" who had been "guarding" the train until then- leaving just three reporters there who all remarked as to how empty the place had become. One from the BBC, one from The Guardian (Shaun Walker, the same guy who stumbled upon that APC convoy a few weeks ago), and one from, erm, Buzzfeed (Max Seddon, who strikes me as rather out of place where he is, as does the idea of Buzzfeed having a news operation at all). So now my Twitter feed is exclusively composed of things about events in Ukraine or Russia- and the commentary of the President of Estonia.

[ag]

It has been made fairly clear to the Ukrainians, that they can count on, at most, the moral support from the West. They have to live with the hand they've been dealt. Which is crap: an army that cannot resist the Russian invasion and an economy that will be cut from most of its energy sources this winter. What are they supposed to do? So, they try to negotiate something that would, at least, postpone the full-blown Russian attack. May be, once the temperatures start going back up the Europeans would be willing to do, at least, something about Russia.

None of this, really, matters for the longer term. Putin will, at some point, go further and all these agreements will be made meaningless. If the West resists, Ukraine will get its own back. If it does not, it will be dismembered - and it will not be the only nation that will be dismembered in the process. For the moment, anything that does not involve a Russian assault on Kharkiv and Kiev tomorrow is a necessary respite.

[dead0man]

Tycoon's arrest sends shock wave through Russia

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I didn't think it deserved it's own thread, but it is interesting.

[politicus]

I didn't think it deserved it's own thread, but it is interesting.

Simfan made a Russia General Discussion:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196098.0

[Simfan34]

Hungary suspends gas flow to Ukraine

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29374151

[politicus]

Russia threatens to cut off gas supply to EU countries because of reexporting to Ukraine.

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-eu-mustnt-export-gas-ukraine-report-071735764.html

[ag]

I may be wrong, but, it seems, a major Russian escalation (whether political or military is still not clear to me) is in the cards. Formal recognition of the "People´s Republics", possibly accompanied by official military base treaties seems likely.  Might be wrong, but it does smell that way.

[dead0man]

I don't know what Putin's end game is, but he certainly isn't there yet.

[Platypus]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/07/ukraine-russian-military-column-east

"A column of 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and trucks carrying ammunition and fighters has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, the Kiev military said on Friday.

“The deployment continues of military equipment and Russian mercenaries to the frontlines,” spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a televised briefing referring to Thursday’s cross-border incursion.

Nato said it has seen an increase in Russian troops and equipment along the Ukraine border was looking into the reports. “We are aware of the reports of Russian troops and tanks crossing the border between Ukraine and Russia,” a Nato military officer told Reuters. “If this crossing into Ukraine is confirmed it would be further evidence of Russia’s aggression and direct involvement in destabilising Ukraine.”

..."

[Beet]

Why can't NATO ever verify this stuff itself? You would think with its satellite surveillance capabilities they would be able to either confirm or deny the Ukrainian government claims that they're being invaded. If the NATO position is, "gee, we can't tell whether Ukraine is being invaded or not" that's pretty pathetic, IMO.

[ag]

But, you know, those troops do not wear a uniform!

[Beet]

Per the NYT, Nato has verified it.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I want Obama to punch Putin in the face at the conference.

[Platypus]

Nah, Obama can hold his arms back while Abbott does the punching. I posted it in the Aus thread, but I'll post it here too, Russia has sent warships to sit off the coast of QLD during the G20 meeting, and that offends me deeply.

Plus what does he think is going to happen if they actually engage? The US and Australia are the firmest of allies, and there is no way a missile on Bundaberg isn't met with one on Omsk, from the US, UK, or whoever. All it is is bullying and posturing and I can't believe Putin is so readily prepared to trash his nation's image further, after they shot down and killed 38 Australians, with such a stupid act.

[ag]

Nah, Obama can hold his arms back while Abbott does the punching. I posted it in the Aus thread, but I'll post it here too, Russia has sent warships to sit off the coast of QLD during the G20 meeting, and that offends me deeply.

Plus what does he think is going to happen if they actually engage? The US and Australia are the firmest of allies, and there is no way a missile on Bundaberg isn't met with one on Omsk, from the US, UK, or whoever. All it is is bullying and posturing and I can't believe Putin is so readily prepared to trash his nation's image further, after they shot down and killed 38 Australians, with such a stupid act.

I guess, Mr. P. is afraid, they are going to detain him in Australia, so he is sending in the Navy, in case a rescue is necessary

[ag]

So, once again there are persistent rumors of Russian attack this weekend. Not the first time, of course.

[swl]

So the new ukrainian government comprises 3 foreign citizens: one US citizen, one Georgian and one Lithuanian. TNot sure how this is supposed to help...

[All Along The Watchtower]

Latest news:

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-ukraine-crisis-davos-poroshenko-idUSKBN0KU1TX20150121

[Murica!]

Latest news:

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-ukraine-crisis-davos-poroshenko-idUSKBN0KU1TX20150121

Yes, the Junta is accusing Russia again. So whats new?

[Simfan34]

Of course you're pro-Kremlin.

[BaconBacon96]

The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.

[MaxQue]

The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.

They're opposed to Putin, the Second Coming of Our Lord, so, they are evil.

[Murica!]

The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_and_Defense_Council_of_Ukraine
Not to mention the government lowering spending everywhere but the military which it has been increasing.