Ukraine Crisis

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German TV yesterday had a longer feature from a  team that joined Klitchko over a few days when he was travelling to several provincial capitals. They showed him discussing with a local Yanukovich supporter who strongly opposed the Ukraine opening towards the EU, as that would lead to the legalisation of gay marriage. Oh, this great Soviet Union tradition of disinformation.

On my company's Christmas party, I met an old colleague and friend from Ukraine and asked him, half jokingly, how the Maidan was those days. Turned out that he had been spending almost every night there, and he didn't report anything about Neo-Nazis (which he sure would have been concerned about if that was a real issue). According to him, the overwhelming mood was (a) "We feel European, not Soviet/Russian" and (b) "We need the oligarchs to stop, and we need Europe's help in that". Haven't heard of him since, though, maybe the mood has changed in the meantime. But overall, it reminds me more of post-Soeharto Indonesia, where agent provocateurs tried to stifle anti-Chinese action in order to provide the military with a reason to keep power, than of Syria.

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This is a mail I received today from my Ukrainian friend:

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Cory, while you might think Ukraine to be a good case for a seminar on "Basics of Geopolitics", there are actually some here who know, and are concerned about, real people living there. Just imagine for a moment we wouldn't be talking Ukraine but Canada or Cuba instead, and consider whether in that case you would still stick to your statements.

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Daring some kind of political outlook, I think recent events will push Ukraine's territorial reform and decentralisation even further up the agenda than before. It had been one of PoR's main political demands while still in opposition, but, once having taken power, they - ehm - felt somewhat less pressed to move forward. Nevertheless, building on concepts that were developed during Tymoshenko's 2007-2009 presidency, the Constitutional Assembly  has in 2012 drafted a reform proposal that combines territorial reorganisation (merger of micro-units) with local governance reform and empowerment. I might be able to retrieve a respective map (I have attended a presentation by one of the EU experts that consulted the Constitutional Assembly), but that could take a little while.

For those interested, here are some background documents with a few more details:
http://cor.europa.eu/en/documentation/studies/Documents/local-regional-government-ukraine.pdf

http://www.aer.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Commissions/CultureEducation/EventsAndMeetings/2013/0425-27_DNK/WorkDocs/Briefing_note_on_local_and_regional_government_in_Ukraine.pdf

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Sebastopol used to be 'hip' around 2005-07, and saw quite a real estate boom. I know several expats that bought flats there. The financial crisis has hit Ukraine hard and probably also affected Sebastopol's real estate market, and there are obviously many locals unhappy of being crowded out by rich people from Kiew, Dnjepropetowsk and abroad. But the local business elite might want to give the thought of joining Russia (and suddenly having to compete with overhauled Sochi) a second thought, and finally vote with their purse.

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Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Well, there is a second scenario. Imagine the EU reacting with a trade boycott on Russia that includes transit of Russian goods over EU territory. That would effectively cut off Kaliningrad oblast from the remainder of Russia, and leave Russia with three choices:
1. Trade in Kaliningrad for Crimea (highly unlikely)
2. Give in on Crimea / Ukraine
3. Try to use military force in order to keep supply routes to Kaliningrad open, which would imply aggression on Lithuania, and as such invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

As such, the Lithuanian request indicates to me that blocking Kaliningrad is being seriously considered. What is the Lithuanian position on this issue, and how the EU will ultimately decide, is another question, but the EU is having quite an ace up their sleeve still.

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Also, Merkel is cracking under the pressure at Germany's first chance since the 1930's to emerge as a European leader. If I were a German citizen, I would be furious.

As a German citizen with a bit of knowledge about 20th century Eastern European history, I would be furious if Merkel (or any other leading German politician, for that matter) would come out with any sort of statement that isn't extremely well thought over, agreed with major partners (US, UK, France, Poland etc.), and hasn't been based on prior intensive talks with Russia on possible ways out.

In addition, note that Steinmeyer has been visiting the USA on Friday, while Merkel visited the UK yesterday. I assume they haven't yet had too much time to sit together and draw conclusions. I could also imagine a bit of follow-up on the respective visits still going on.
Last but not least, already a few weeks ago CSU (!) politicians had proposed nominating Gerhard Schroder as mediator, for his cordial relation to Putin. At that time, Schroder had declined, but recent events may have lead him to change his mind. In that case, he will definitely have requested free hand and demanded the German government to refrain from any official statement as long as he is trying to get some kind of deal settled.

Don't mistake public comments for leadership...

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Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

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Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

Oops - check out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

Russia seceded on December 12, 1991, two weeks before the USSR was formally dissolved. The last one to put out the lights was Kazakhstan.
[Not that having Kazakhstan replace Russia as UNSC veto power would really be much of an improvement....]

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Good analysis from Malcolm Fraser: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/ukraine-theres-no-way-out-unless-the-west-understands-its-past-mistakes

Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

FIFA gave the World cup to Qatar, which is 10 times worse than Russia, they won't move the Cup out of Russia...

... unless, of course, their main sponsors tell them to do so. Any statements from Nike and Coca Cola HQs so far (and anybody having an idea about their major stockholders)?

As to major mistakes of "the West": Germany has traditionally been opposed to the US' missile defence programme, as it would increase Russia's feeling of being encircled (a position on which the Schröder and all Merkel governments agreed). Poland supported the programme, being grateful for any US military installation on its territory (for understandable historical reasons). Don't know about the French and British positions in this respect. In any case, there hasn't been a common "western" position on how to deal with Russia and its security concerns - this is part of the problem.

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I have lived in Riga for 6 months and Kharkiv for 2 years.

My partner is Latvian. She was in 1981 in the former ussr. Her father was born in Ukraine and her mother was born in Georgia. They have lived in Riga since 1979. They are russian speakers.

In 2008, they recieved a letter from the latvia home office. They were told by the home office that unless they spoke Latvian they would have there pension stopped. They were told to go on latvian speaking courses. They were both denied latvian passports. These are two people in there 60s.

Protection of the rights of ethno-linguistic minorities in Latvia could definitely be a lot better. The EU is regularly putting out comments, but they tend to go rather un-regarded and un-enforced:
http://www.coe.int/t/dghl/monitoring/minorities/3_FCNMdocs/PDF_2nd_OP_Latvia_en.pdf

I guess if your parents-in-law had went before the European Court, they would have won the case, but, as you said, two people in their 60s, and probably not fluent in any of the EU's official languages..
In any case, this is another example where "the West" (in this case the EU) hasn't been too good in dealing with legitimate  Russian interests.

your telling people of crimea, kharkiv and donestsk that they have to live with these thugs in kiev who hate russians.

The last things I have heard was some 20 bn USD getting missed from the Ukrainian budget, while the twenty bank accounts of Yanukovich, family & friends that have been frozen in Switzerland and Austria contain some 7 bn USD, the origin of which isn't fully accounted for.

Thugs in Kiev - of course! But the fact that Yanukovich hates Russians is new to me - could you explain this in a little more detail? Also,  why should Klitschko, himself a Russian-speaker with limited command of Ukrainian, hate Russians?  

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Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.

All of Ukraine? I'm still far from being convinced.

Considering that Kerry is expected to be in Kiev tomorrow, the timing indeed looks a bit weird.

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has put trade and investment talks with Russia on hold as a rebuke for Russia's incursion into Ukraine, a United States official said on Monday.

"We have suspended upcoming bilateral trade and investment engagement with the government of Russia that were part of a move toward deeper commercial and trade ties," a spokesman for the Office of the US Trade Representative said.

Very effective. If we don't dare to use the stick, let's throw away the carrot as well...

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

Again, you put out this vague warning but do not point out any plausible places that would be next on Russia's list.

How about protecting innocent orthodox Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh from continuing Azeri aggression? Ties well into alleged Russian support to Lezgian separatism (a Caucasian ethnic living close to the Russian border), and would of course be completely unrelated to oil and gas exploration in the Caspian Sea... 

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Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.

Correct. But the "Heim ins Reich" rhetoric still sounds unpleasantly familiar.

At the moment, it seems Putin has been sending a clear signal to the West to stop ignoring legitimate Russian interests. The form is obviously inappropriate, and the occasion anything but well chosen. Backing up a corrupt crook like Yanukovich hasn't really been helpful to ensure Ukraine will pay their gas bill, while the military intervention may actually lead to more instead of less discrimination of Russian-speakers in Ukraine and other countries. But Putin's statements today have made me a little more optimistic that ultimately a diplomatic solution can be found.

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A key difference between 1938/39 and today is that Hitler needed the war economically - there wasn't any chance of repaying the foreign debt that had been accumulated for re-armament, and was left from Versailles, without laying hand on Dutch, Belgian, French, Danish, and probably a number of other states' gold reserves.
In contrast, today, 40% of Russia's GDP, and 60% of its budget relate to trade with the West, especially the EU, and here especially oil and gas exports. While Central Europe including Germany is quite dependent on Russian energy, cutting the link would strongly affect Russia's economy and, ultimately, its military ability, and popular support to Putin's government.

While there are apparently quite a lot of people within the Russian leadership that have read the "Foundations of Geopolitics", I still haven't given up hope that many others understand the basics of (political) economics.

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it seems the West has sufficiently managed to keep Putin and others busy answering incoming phone calls from D.C., Berlin and elsewhere that subordinates now lack a clear idea of where the journey shall go, and everybody is drawing their own conclusions.
Apparently, the "illegal" Ukrainian interim government, which Russian media describes to be in a state of chaos, is much more effective in ensuring coherent action, and they seem to have studied the "Prague 1968" playbook quite intensively. German media yesterday showed another Ukrainian base under "observation" by Russian troops. The Ukrainian commander expressed his concern about the "poor Russian guys" that had to spend the night outside in their vans, and indicated he was working on a more "human" solution. Supposing there was still some Vodka to be found in or near that base, I have a suspicion how that evening may have developed..

The Crimean government, meanwhile, has some work left to ensure a coherent representation abroad. On the ITB, the world's largest tourism fair that opened yesterday in Berlin, Crimea is represented with their own booth:

The booth is part of the Ukrainian presentation and situated in front of a map that displays Crimea as part of Ukraine. The Russian presentation, btw., is directly adjacent, as is the US'.

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The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

While I tend to agree in general, this time it is a bit more complicated. In the 1994 Budapest Convention, the USA, the UK and Russia have guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Ukraine handing over all nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. If any of the signatories now unilaterally questioned that accord, that would mean a massive blow to worldwide arms control, and put the international credibility of all parties at stake.

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There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

Unfortunately, I am not sure there is anybody, currently writing in Ukrainian, who is likely to ever get it. Then, again, I do not know much about the current Ukrainian literature.

Of the living Russian-language writers there is one, who is, most definitely deserving. And he happens to be Abkhaz: Fazil Iskander. That would be an interesting choice. But it would be very hard to interpret in the context of the Ukrainian situation

If I were on the Nobel Price committee, Iskander had my vote. Does he actually have Russian, or Kirgiz nationality?