Ukraine Crisis

[jaichind]

See

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/

Russian news sources indicate that Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has defected to Russia.

My understanding is that most of the Ukrainian Navy resigned last week so if this ends up being true it does not surprise me.

[jaichind]

Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.

Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.

[jaichind]

I see what is going on in Eastern Ukraine in less strategically grandiose terms.  It seems to me it is mostly a way to make sure that the May elections cannot take place in Eastern Ukraine and as a result Russia and those in Eastern Ukraine hostile to the current Kiev regime can claim that the new president is not legitimate so the current stalemate will continue.

[jaichind]

It seems that in the Russian speaking city of Odessa the pro-Russians are also beginning their protests.  This might be supported by the Russians in Transnistria. Several people killed already.

[jaichind]

As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

As a libertarian you should know the Ukraine is a sovereign nation and has the right to align itself in any way its people so choose. If you want to condemn "CIA interventions" in Latin America then I don't see you cannot object to Russia intervening in the Ukraine. And, well, hating about people caring? One would think you'd be bothered by the Ukrainian people being deprived of their liberties.

I view Crimea 2014 the same as Kosovo 1998.  I am very negative on both events and in an equal way.  I think both the West and Russia are hypocritical when they criticize each other for these two events before hold themselves accountable for their on actions on the other.

[jaichind]

Looks like Russian backed rebels are now inside the encircled key railway junction of Debaltseve.  If so then the Ukrainian military is looking at a major military defeat with the possible loss of thousands of possibility encircled troops (Ukraine military denied they are encircled although the Russian backed rebels claim they are) 

[jaichind]

Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.

[jaichind]

Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.

But the Minsk agreements are "very much alive", of course.

One thing is is interesting is that the Ukrainian army which was trapped in Debaltseve did break out (or at least most of them) and mostly unopposed by the rebels who seems to have managed to at least place the road out under artillery fire if not outright occupation.   This act is actually a signal from the rebels to the Kiev regime that it values the city more than the destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces its which in turn signals goals are limited to trying to create viable mini-state and not the destruction of the current regime in Kiev.  This actually creates some space for possible peace and compromise in the future when it comes to a political settlement of this conflict.