Ukraine Crisis

[Silent Hunter]

Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

At the end of the day, provided they're still buying the gas, Moscow could care less.

[Silent Hunter]

The ambassador's comment about the EU is a sentiment shared by many of its citizens, I would say.

[Silent Hunter]

The speaker of the parliament has resigned and the opposition have occupied the presidential offices; President reportedly in Kharkiv.

[Silent Hunter]

Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII, I doubt that they can do much about it.

Ukraine isn't Georgia. It has a much bigger military than the latter, whose air force was quite literally what was left in the Sukhoi factory when the country became independent and they had enough problems with that.

[Silent Hunter]

I don't think anyone wants a shooting war here... but if people aren't careful, we might get one.

[Silent Hunter]

That was in 2001; a lot of Tatars have moved back since then.

[Silent Hunter]

Worth mentioning that a number of journalists have had their body armour stolen from them by militia in Crimea.

[Silent Hunter]

So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

[Silent Hunter]

So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

Personally, I think the Ukrainians may well surrrender. It's the sensible thing to do now; there are too many Russian forces in Crimea.

Agreed, the should surrender for the moment. But let's not forget that Ukraine doesn't have some mickey mouse armed forces, their army is pretty strong and well-resourced. Russia would be foolish to enter into conflict.

Better than Georgia, but they're not brilliant. While the Russians would take casualties, they'd still win.

The Ukrainian ambassador to the EU has said they will push for Russia to lose its World Cup place.

[Silent Hunter]

Ukraine have made a notable statement at the opening ceremony of the Paralympics; only their flag bearer came out in the athletes' parade. They will compete unless the situation escalates.

[Silent Hunter]

"Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen and this is a war crime without any expiry under a statute of limitations." - Ukrainian prime minister Arseny Yatseniuk.

The thing with the Ukrainians is that they talk very tough, but everyone knows that they've got a two pair and Russia has an inside straight. They can't attack the Russian forces in Crimea without bringing down a devastating Russian response.

That said, they don't really need to; they can justifiably play the victim.

[Silent Hunter]

Lavrov says a "deal" has been reached to disarm all militias. Broad national dialogue and amnesty for separatists who didn't commit capital crimes. Russia's position hasn't changed: reorder the country as we like or we'll do it for you.

"Deal" confirmed by Kerry and Baroness Ashton.

[Silent Hunter]

One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants.

[Silent Hunter]

One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants.

I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Intelligence officers can be ignored or removed from the equation... sometimes permanently.

[Silent Hunter]

I have this feeling that Ukranians will end up having to accept Russia taking over Crimea but I fo believe that peace is yet possible. Ukraine shall be allowed to join in the European Union in exchange it doesn't enter in NATO and give more autonomy to its Oblasts.

Crimea will be de facto Russian for some time. Ukraine will not "accept" it (that would be a betrayal of the Tartars), but there is little that can be done about it right now. But Putin will lead Russia into a sufficient disaster, eventually, to loose it - no real reason for Ukraine to drop the claim. Though, of course, no active actions will be taken - but neither will the sanctions be removed.

Exactly; the US never recognised the incorporation of the Baltic states into the USSR in 1940 and it took 50 years before they were independent again.

[Silent Hunter]

I don't really think that hitting Russia with sanctions on the same day a ceasefire is reached is the right thing to do.