Ukraine Crisis

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Hiw own party has now rejected Yanukovich:

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It's not going to end well for the ethnic minorities in Crimea...

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Russia created Putin. Russians like Putin. Russians need a Putin.

They have no changed since the Tsar's age.

If you think that with his death the people will be converted in happy liberal democrats, well, you are wrong.

And the most powerful forces in Russia after Putin are not the happy liberal democrats, but the ultra-nationalists and the old style communists. Putin is holding together a country that sunk in quasi anarchy in the 90s, a country plundered by mafia and oligarchs that Westerners are happy to protect (hello Berezovsky and Abramovich), and where politics range from neo-nazis to stalinists. I don't think any current European leader would be able to maintain a relative stability in such a country.

Some compared him to Charles de Gaulle, and I somehow agree with that.

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Good analysis from Malcolm Fraser: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/03/ukraine-theres-no-way-out-unless-the-west-understands-its-past-mistakes

Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

FIFA gave the World cup to Qatar, which is 10 times worse than Russia, they won't move the Cup out of Russia...

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I don't see where he is making a mistake. Ukraine is leaving the Russian's zone of influence and he's trying to save what can be saved (and what matters most to Russian's interest).
Same thing goes with Georgia or Moldavia.

International reaction will be merely symbolic. Business leaders in Europe already spoke against  financial or trade sanctions.

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So he's trying to limit his losses, hardly a strategic victory regarding his own backyard.

Russia has been trying to limit its losses since 1991, it's nothing new. Next is Moldavia and the only remaining of Russian influence on its western border will be Belarus.

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Also seems to dispel this notion that the Ukrainian government is fascist or propped up by these people.

Maybe...but then again, Svoboda still is very much a part of the government.

In the cabinet, they control the ministries of environment and agriculture... and are probably pushing for a fascist agriculture policy for Ukraine or something.

The EU would still sanction any other country where this happens (Austria and Hungary did not even need neo-nazis ministers to be sanctioned). I think the EU should have waited the elections and a new government without any neo-nazi at all before signing the association agreement.

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They are asked to shoot their own people, that probably makes a difference.

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If the rebels shot down the plane, the 'best' case now would be for Russia to realize that they've been providing weapons to a bunch of drunkards and to step back from the conflict (probably unofficially, since they deny being involved), forcing the rebels to negotiate. Of course that seems optimistic.

If the Ukrainian loyalists or the Russian army are responsible, it's going to be bad...

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UDAR and Svoboda just left the governmental coalition, paving the way for new elections.

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The UN is effective when neither Russia nor the US have direct interests in the conflict.

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The Russian leader of the Donetsk People's Republic stepped down in favor of a local guy. It may be small step towards a peace process.

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Here is my point of view on the situation in Ukraine:

This conflict is clearly escalating, and the Ukrainian government is lucky that the international attention has been focusing on other things. The loyalists are now shelling the big cities controlled by the rebels and there are many civilian casualties. It's a bit sad to see a European country bombing its own citizens in 2014, and getting away with it.

So now the loyalists are making progress towards the main cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and are clearly determined to get rid of the rebels, at almost any price. On the other side, the main political leaders of the rebels are fleeing now that things are looking bad for them. But the local guys, the normal fighters really believe that they are fighting against neo-nazis (which is not 100% false) and keep referring to a new Stalingard. They seem determined to fight until the last man.

This situation is a bit embarrassing for the European countries and the US who blindly supported the loyalists at the beginning, but now this conflict really has the potential to turn very ugly, and something has to do about it.

While the Western opinion is looking somewhere else, Putin is under heavy internal pressure to do something. The military conflict is about to be lost for the rebels, Putin knows it and anyway he also realized that they are not reliable at all. But he really has to do something, and the least he can do is to help the civilian population.  

So I think the convoy is not a trojan horse. The Ukrainian government is understandably paranoid and it would be a good compromise to allow international inspectors to verify it at the border. Ukraine is now afraid to be seen as the bad guys, so they are sending their own convoy too.

It's a good thing that both Russians and Ukrainians are sending humanitarian in Donetsk and Luhansk. They are also going to serve as human shields and fighters on both side will have to refrain from getting crazy.

Remember that many have been saying for weeks that this conflict needs to end in an honorable way for Putin. That's probably it. Both sides need to start negotiating soon, and the battles of Donestk and Luhansk must not happen because they would be really awful.

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Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.

Groups like Pravy Sektor and other militias are still fighting along with the Ukranian army. They are a small minority, but being the most fanatical, they are always on the frontline. If you prefer "fascists" rather than "neo-nazis", I am also fine with it, it does not make much of a different anyway.

The rebels may surrender to the regular Ukrainian army, but they will never surrender to these militias.

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On something different, some members of Right Sector were arrested a few days ago. Two days ago the leaders of the group threatened to leave the eastern front and to walk on Kiev instead. After these threats, the members of the group were released today and some official at the Interior Ministry fired.

I think these groups are the key factor for a peace treaty. If Poroshenko manages to control them, it will allow the rebels and Putin to claim that the fascist threat has been stopped. But he cannot crack down on them too brutally, because they are still useful in the East and they are able to create a big mess in Kiev if they decide to.

Also, tens of civilian refugees fleeing Luhansk were killed when their convoy was attacked, both sides trade blame.

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As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.

It should not be too difficult to get rid of them then.

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I have to disagree with you when you consider them negligible, and even more a myth. The proof is that it is enough for them to threaten Poroshenko for him to concede to their demands within one day.

And I am not the one who decided to give them so much importance. Whether it's because of an emphasis on them by the rebels and Russia, or thanks to good public relations, they somehow reached an importance much bigger that their number of fighters would indicate at first sight.

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ag, I am making some effort but I still don't understand why you are so afraid of Russia. Were you alive during the Cold War? Were you somehow involved?

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When was the last time there was a territorial land grab in Europe from one state to another (as opposed to civil war within a pre-established state, e.g. Yugoslavia?)

Russia in Georgia in 2008, if you consider establishing puppet states as a territorial land grab. Otherwise WWII.

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Connecting Russia to Crimea and even further to Transnitria would definitely be a big success for Russia. I don't know whether that's the goal or whether they just wanted to re-balance the war that was being lost by the rebels.

This is very disconcerting to say the very least. What do you think we should do about it? 

Personally, I think we should push both sides to agree on a referendum organized by third-parties in the disputed areas (at least Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) on whether they want or not to get more autonomy from Kiev.

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The troops really keep complaining about their poor equipment, delivering weapons would make a big difference. There are other steps in between though, I don't know if we will eventually reach that stage or not.

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These are all possible options, but before deciding about the means we need to set the goals.

For example, I think many in Europe are fine with Crimea going back to Russia. It could have happened in better ways, but also in much worse ways, so there is a kind of relief that it happened in a "not so bad" way. So I don't think we will see any decisive European sanctions about Crimea, just a few symbolic things.

A kind of decentralization of Ukraine with more autonomy for the East would also probably be seen as a positive outcome, and apparently Merkel is pushing Poroshenko in this direction.

There are on the other hand things that are unacceptable from a European point of view, and a link between Crimea and mainland Russia is one of them, so let's see if Putin is trying to get that.

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The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.

Since you like to refer to the Munich agreements, I want to remind you that it was a failure from the UK and France to respect a military agreement with Czechoslovakia.
In the case of Crimea, it's the US and the UK who have an agreement to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, and who are failing to respect it. So go first, we'll follow (maybe ).

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He's right. We have all seen how bad is the Ukrainian army. Even the volunteer battalions fighting with kalashnikov are better. So he can. The only question is whether he wants.

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I think Putin would dream to keep the USSR influence, just without communism. He does not need to annex these countries, just having them as vassal states would be enough.

So:

Armenia   
Azerbaijan   
Belarus   
Estonia   
Georgia   
Kazakhstan   
Kyrgyzstan   
Latvia   
Lithuania   
Moldova   
Tajikistan   
Turkmenistan   
Ukraine   
Uzbekistan   

Being in the NATO and the EU, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are lost for good, they are untouchable. All the rest is still somehow keepable, and these countries are at different degrees under Russian influence. Some are trying to break free (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine...), some are still real russian vassal states (Belarus for example).

What many fail to take into account is that the russian sphere of influence has been continuously decreasing for more than 20 years, and that all of Putin wars are about saving what can be saved. The consequence is that we should allow him to do so instead of risking a full scale war for territories that will anyway drift away from Russia in 10 years.