Ukraine Crisis

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

I never thought there would be a time when German troops would be a positive force in the Ukraine.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

For all the map fantasists, I repeat my challenge of earlier:



This is 1913. Draw a series of 'rational' ethnic boundaries. While keeping in mind that these majorities in many places were frequently waver thin... (and that cities were frequently inhabited by very different ethnic groups to the surrounding countryside... and also in many cases had large Jewish populations...).

Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.

The answer is to give Transleithania to the Turks and Cisleithania to the Germans. I'm sure the Slavs and Hungarians will be very understanding.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

I have to partially agree with ag: if Russia takes only the Crimea then you will have a near perminantly pro-western rump Ukraine. The only logical explaination for what we must assume is a logical power is to attempt to completely dominate Ukraine.
The question is if we should intervene in it. While every sensible person wants to uphold Budapest and economically sancion Russia, I am personally not willing to risk World War III for a faraway backwater like the Ukraine. This may be one of those times where the good guys have to take a dive to avoid worse consequences.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea.

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?

Supporting the Crimeans in their quest for independence from the evil Neo-Nazi Ukrainians of course.  But he won't annex Crimea any more than he will annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.

Yeah, it actually serves his purposes more for Crimea to remain "disputed" in the sense of Abkhzia, Transnistria, etc., then for it to be officially absorbed into Russia in a way that's internationally recognized.  If Ukraine includes territory whose status remains disputed like that, then it's less likely to be admitted into NATO, the EU, etc.

Another thing is that Pro-Russian politicians in the Ukraine are dependent upon Crimea's pro Russian vote. Without it, Ukraine is slanted towards being pro-west.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

What are the chances of Ukraine joining NATO now?

Very low, NATO doesn't like dead weight.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.

Yasser [inks]ing Arafat got a nobel prize. It is a joke.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.

Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.

You are just trolling right?

You are correct: nuclear weapons are too dangerous. Chemical weapons would be better to give them.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

We need to supply Ukraine with nukes or else Russia can just run roughtshot over them.

You are just trolling right?

You are correct: nuclear weapons are too dangerous. Chemical weapons would be better to give them.

...your still trolling, right?

We have two choices if we don't want Putin to enslave Ukraine and eventually Eastern Europe: either we go in ourselves or Ukraine gets the arms it needs to scare off Russia. I don't want to start world war III, so I prefer the second route.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

95.5 percent for union with Russia. Most impressive.

Was there a boycott?

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.

It's not intended to convince us but the Russian people.  The more I read about this, the more I'm convinced that this was planned to distract the Russian people from their faltering economy.  Not that it was faltering badly, but Putin has good reason to be concerned about what even a slight falter might do to his popularity.  Now the economic problems can be blamed on the West, so I don't see Tsar Vladimir V being persuadable by the sanctions.

That's Tsar Vladimir IV: His Imperial Majesty doesn't recognize the usurper False Vladimir.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?

Will Ukraine really be any worse without them? They seem to be filled with pro-Russian trouble makers and sh*t disturbers.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

And what if the (Ukrainian) population of those islands pronounces for Japan?

This is not a thing that will happen.

Depends on how you ask ))

Aren't the Kurils majority Russian, though?

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.

And definitely better than the average Russian.

Judging by several posts in this thread, I'm not sure that is a universal statement.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Enlightened western-style democracy!

It is irrational to expect the full extent of western democracy in unstable areas like Ukraine.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

It seems like Donetsk and Luhansk are just more trouble than they are worth. If I were Ukrainian, I would detach those areas and join NATO.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Haishenwai!

Only if Germany gets Konigsberg back.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai

Has Japan ever seriously claimed that area beyond their Russian Civil War misadventures?

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

We really need to fortify the Baltics.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

So yesterday the Ukrainians claimed to have captured Russian paratroopers and today the Russian MoD confirmed that they were indeed Russians. Naturally they claimed that they accidentally crossed the border. So either Russian paratroopers are idiots or Russia's excuses continue to get thinner.

To be fair, the two aren't mutually exclusive.