Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

There is a difference: Ukraine is, what, a dozen times as large? And, except in Crimea, that would be all that is needed to make everyone forget about their disagreements and start fighting the common enemy: yes, even in the East. Any invasion outside of Crimea would be dreadfully bloody.

[ag]

Also, Georgia f***ing started that war. Russia was not the aggressor.

If Russia invaded Ukraine, they would be the aggressor.

Well, if it starts, it would start with Crimea declaring independence and calling up the Russians. In fact, unlike in Abkhazia or South Ossetia (both of which before the Soviet break-up were plurality Georgian, and for whose native populations Russians are, at best, protectors of convenience), Crimea has been plurality Russian (at least, by self-identification) since Stalin expelled the Tatars. Furthermore, Russia has retained the naval base in Sebastopol (itself and overwhelmingly ethnically Russian city).

And, of course, any Ukrainian government (Yanukovich included) would go haywire if Russian troops marched across the Kerch Straight. They would have to do something - not even attempting to retain control there would be viewed as High Treason throughout the country. In fact, Ukrainians, however sane otherwise, lose their bearing when they talk about those Russians in Crimea - many would love to deport them all back to Mother Russia. So, arguably, Russia could manufacture the case for being on the defensive with relative ease, if it wanted to. It would, in fact, be more straightforward than in Georgia: they would be defending ethnic Russians.

[ag]

2) Even if it did, it would require Crimea to declare independence NOW. Totally different from South Ossetia which had been de facto independent for a decade before the war started.

South Ossetia, at its best, had a population of around 100 thousand people. Before the Russian defense/invasion that was down to about 70 thousand. A sizable chunk (around a quarter of the total) of that were Georgians, who lived on fully Georgian-controlled land (about half the territory of SO at the time). Recent estimates of the population of South Ossetia average somewhere in the vicinity of 40 thousand people (around 50 thousand by official data, under 30 thousand by some independent estimates, some actually even lower, closer to 25 thousand). It seems, the outcome of Russian defense was not only to ethnically cleanse the place (and there are, basically, no Georgians left there), but also to remove around a third of the pre-existent Ossetian population as well. Overall, the population has halved after Russian intervention (dropped to barely a third of its late Soviet levels) Does not look like a dramatic humanitarian success - more like a catastrophe. I am pretty sure, if anybody really cared to report from SO, that is how it would have been covered.

Anyway, from what I read at the time, though Georgians might have been the first to start shooting, they seem to have been deliberately provoked (with Russian troops having been first assembled nearby). It would not be too hard to organize something similar in Crimea - Ukrainians could be easily provoked into some minor atrocity. However, one should remember, that if half the population of Crimea has to flee, it would be a million refugees.

[ag]

A lot of sh**t.

This is getting to be very dangerous. If Russians come in, it will be awful.

[ag]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Ojala. From your lips to god´s ears.

[ag]

Maybe they should just get it over with and formally split the country into two. This would solve a heck of a lot of problems:

Except for Crimea, they all feel quite Ukrainian, actually. Even in Donetsk or Luhansk - even though in those places they consider their language to be Russian (linguistically, even the dialects across the border in Russia, in Krasnodar and thereabouts, have many features that suggest classifying them as Ukrainian, but as the languages are fairly close - like German and Dutch or Castilian and Catalan - what matters is which literary standard they prefer, and in Donetsk it is overwhelmingly Russian).  But, whatever language, it is far from certain that, say, Russian troops would be much welcomed almost anywhere (Sebastopol, probably, excluded).

[ag]

Guys, stop bullsh**tting about this sh**t. People are dying. I myself may have many problems with this or that, but when the government sends snipers to shoot citizens in the streets, it is time to shut up - at least until the moment when that government is no longer there.

[ag]

Lviv has declared independence from the Ukrainian central government

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-facing-civil-war-lviv-declares-independence-yanukovich-rule-1437092

It is not just Lviv. Basically, the entire west is not under the control of the central government. Not merely the usual suspects (Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk), but a few others as well (Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytsky) and even the Transcarpathia, which has always been the one pro-government bit in the West.

In Khmelnytsky, for instance, the head of the local office of the State Security Agency (SBU - the ex-KGB) was arrested during his appearance at the regional legislature (he was trying to explain/apologize for the killing of a demonstrator the previous day by his men).  He was  taken away by the members of the local military unit, which had declared its allegiance to the local authority. In Lutsk (capital of Volyn) the (appointed) governor was refusing to resign - after which he was handcuffed and forced to kneel before the demonstrators. In Transcarpathia the local faction of the governing party (the only sizeable faction of this sort in the West) disbanded itself, with the members leaving the party (the party´s national MPs from the region have also declared themselves independents and participated in today´s opposition-led meeting of the Rada in Kiev).  The Transcarpathian unit of the police special forces (Berkut) declared its allegiance to "the people" and is refusing commands from its superiors. Basically, if I get it right, pretty much anything west of, as well as some bits further east (Poltava), is now out of the central government control to full or partial extent.

[ag]

The Army's deputy chief of staff has resigned, BBC citing local media.

Yep. BTW, Yanukovich yesterday replaced the Head of Armed forces - the new guy is the former Head of the Navy (born in Belarus, based all his life in pro-Russian Crimea).

[ag]

The real danger is today in Crimea, actually. At noon local time there is an extraordinary session of the local legislature. If the Russians. The rumor is, it will give the Russians the pretext to get in, by asking for "help". The Tatars are in arms - but there aren´t many other pro-Ukrainian groups there.

[ag]

Judging from first reactions, Russia seems to be pretty pissed about the recent developments.

But short of launching WWIII...

It is the year 14. I would not discard that possibility, actually.

[ag]

It has been in Russian/Ukrainian news for some hours now. Frankly, I am scared.

[ag]

Crimea playing up secession/rejoining Russia.

Actually, they have not been able to do this today - no quorum in the local legislature was partly to blame. But also there seems to be some rethinking - for the moment the local legislative and executive leaders are blaming each other for separatism and hinting at a modicum of loyalty. One reason might be, today there was a massive pro-Ukrainian demonstration by Crimean Tartars in Simferopol. They may be realizing, a secession might lead to a local civil war.

Sebastopol is quite another matter, though.

[ag]

Russian Army units are occupying an airport in Sevastopol.

Sevastopol airport is, mostly, a military base (there are some commercial flights, but that usage is tiny, the main international airport is in Simferopol). Still, it is clearly not part of the RUSSIAN military base in Sevastopol.

With Russian troops occupying administrative buildings in Simferopol, it is not like this is unexpected. How long before the other international "guarantors" of Ukrainian territorial integrity (US and UK) do anything? Unfortunately, I am afraid, they will do nothing.

[ag]

Eli Lake's US intelligence sources say they don't think Russia will invade.

They will not "invade". They will "fulfill their international duty on request of the legitimate government of Ukraine".

[ag]

Russian Army units are occupying an airport in Sevastopol.

Just checked. It is not Sevastopol. It is Simferopol. It is A LOT worse.

[ag]

Crimea might be more trouble than it's worth for the Ukraine.

Would be true, if there were any reason to believe that Russians would stop at the Crimea. Unfortunately, there is absolutely none.

[ag]

Just read a report that the United States is considering to abstain from the annual G8 Summit (which is supposed to take place in June in Sochi of all places) and to urge the Europeans to do the same.

Welcome to Cold War II.

This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.

There should never be a G8 again. G7 is the proper format, and it should be announced, firmly and unequivocably, yesterday. It is not about a cold war, it is about the reality: Russia does not belong.

[ag]

This isn't really a Cold War repeat given the lack of any real ideological difference between Russia/its sphere and the West. More akin to the great power struggles a century ago.

There is a VERY big ideological difference: Russia is not a democracy.

[ag]

The main problem is far eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkov): they not only speak Russian and prefer good relations with Moscow: they ARE ethnic Russians. Would they accept a "westernized" country? Not so sure.

This is, actually, not true. In Kharkiv people are overwhelmingly self-identifying Ukrainians (nearly 71% thus identified in the 2001 census, against about 26% calling themselves Russian). In Donetsk and Luhansk there are also Ukrainian majorities (around 58% Ukrainian against 39% Russian. And of those self-identified Russians many have fairly complex identities. They may have a different idea of what it means to be Ukrainian, but they, most definitely, are not (for the most part) Russian: neither culturally, nor based on self-recognized identity. Many might identify with the Russian literary standard as their language, and are a lot less comfortable with literary Ukrainian, but, actually, local spoken dialects, especially in rural areas, are closer to Ukrainian (as between Germany and Netherlands, there is no sharp boundary).

There has never been any strong movement for joining Russia in those parts (unlike in Crimea). They might want somewhat closer links with the Eastern neighbor, but they all want it to remain a neighbor.

It is the Russians who do not believe those guys being Ukrainian. They themselves tend to have no doubts.

[ag]

UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.

Should have been done years ago.

[ag]

The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8.

The puppet state of Canadia is doing the same.

Canada has a large Ukrainian community. It will, hopefully, actually drag the southern neighbor into action.

[ag]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

[ag]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

This will NOT satisfy the Russians. No more than giving Sudenten satisfied the Germans back in 1938. The only reason to do this is if you desperately want to go fighting on a Russian front in a couple of year. The only way to prevent THAT is to make it so painful to Russia right now, that they never think of a repeat.

[ag]

Kaliningrad idea seems good on paper, but it's a fantasy.

First, the Russians are already using air and sea as a major transport venue. And how would you propose to cut it? By a naval blockade against the Russian Navy? You do realize this is an act of war.

Beside, Russia doesn't need to lift a single arm. Europe is still heavily dependant on their gas and oil. Very uncomfortable, but true. In such confrontation it'll be a matter of time before we would give in.

I'm sorry but what else do you expect? Let our economy utterly collapse or freeze to death in winter?

For the moment, it would be enough to stop the lan routes. Let them send everything by air or ship: flying outside the European airspace.