Ukraine Crisis

[Beet]

Putin is scary... I had this feeling during Georgia 2008. Countries need to respect other countries' territorial sovereignty. The difference between this and what the U.S. does, the U.S. goes in, installs a new government, and then eventually, for the most part, leaves. Iraq, today, is effectively independent. It's not clear if that's the intention in Crimea. This would be more like the U.S. invading Nova Scotia. It has the appearance of a naked land grab. Exactly the kind of behavior the U.S. intervened in the first Gulf war to stop. If this kind of behavior is allowed to go forward, international relations could start devolving into a pre-WWII type situation where larger states simply gobble up smaller ones.

[Beet]

The level of naivety of Westerners is sickening.

Do tell.

Well, everyone here seems to assume than Putin is rational and mentally sane. I'm not sure at all of that.

Well everyone here seems to assume Kim Jong Un is rational and mentally sane.

[Beet]

If Ukrainians are really wary of Russia, why does there seem to be little indication? If the U.S. was under threat of invasion, at the very least, you would see Americans out in the streets in safe cities protesting and burning up pictures of Putin. Where are all the protesters from Maidan? This crisis is to a large degree psychological. The Ukrainian forces are demoralized. A large show of support in Kiev would do wonders for Ukrainian morale, for the overall narrative, as well as, IMO, for Western public opinion about Ukraine. Yet western Ukraine is silent.

[Beet]

America would have a chance against Russia.

Ukraine wouldn't.

That's why they aren't making a lot of noise. They are trying not to provoke a full scale invasion.

Peaceful demonstrations in Kiev would provoke a full scale invasion?

[Beet]

Putin is now demanding the Ukrainian troops pull out of the region. This is Putin's endgame - fill the region with your people, then declare fait accompli, betting that the opposition will be too intimidated and psychologically defeated to resist. Keep doing this until all territorial demands are met.

[Beet]

I have to say, if this continues I don't see anything stopping Putin from trying to reconstitute much of Tsarist Russia. That said, ag, I think the main factor will be, as I mentioned before, the local population's willingness to resist & how much they value their independence from Russia. Afghanistan and Chechnya have shown that even small, powerless populations can imposing punishing costs on a behemoth if they are determined to do so. The main reason Putin is winning is because there is very little resistance. People are either afraid or simply don't care whether they are absorbed into Russia.

[Beet]

You really think Putin is going to start a nuclear war?

[Beet]

ag, I think you have a form of Putin derangement syndrome, although I'm not sure why. The man is capable of horrible things, but he is not that stupid.

[Beet]

If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

China has shown zero interest in establishing an exclusive sphere consisting of itself and Central Asian states.

[Beet]

Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

[Beet]

Ukraine government should move cautiously and not try to increase the body count. Hold transport hubs, border crossings and strategic areas, do not try to storm central cities or buildings. Work towards a political solution.

[Beet]

ag is talking a lot of sense here.

[Beet]

Ukrainian plane shot down killing 49:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/14/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/

[Beet]

Looks like Russian invasion may be imminent- a stray shell has landed on the wrong side of the border.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/13/ukraine-crisis-consequences-idUSL5N0OX2E120140713

Ukraine must cool down now. They cannot give Putin a pretext for invasion.

[Beet]

Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.

[Beet]

Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.

Before believing the Ukrainian government too much, it should be noted that they haven't proven very trustworthy in the past, for example going as far as claiming that the insurgents in Slavyansk shelled the town themselves to make the Ukrainian army look bad.

Why are you such a Russian hack? Do you work for Pravda or something?

[Beet]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/07/24/334974644/u-s-russia-based-artillery-targeting-ukrainian-troops?ft=1&f=1001

[Beet]

I trust the State Department about as much as I trust the Kremlin.

Sorry, but the U.S. has had the far more believable case throughout the Ukraine crisis. Also:

https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/491997024737570816
http://cs620429.vk.me/v620429164/ea66/k14ggwJC9qk.jpg

[Beet]

NATO says Russia may be about to invade. We are approaching the six year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Georgia. It may behoove Ukraine to temporarily declare a cease fire to remove any possible pretext for Russian intervention.

[Beet]

Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Not sure if the government should stop its offensive or not, but if Russian arms continue to pour across the border, and the government halts its offensive, it may not be able to regain the initiative. They may feel they are in a race against time. On the other hand, Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face, as well as care about the future feelings of the population there, as they want to reintegrate these cities back into the Ukrainian polity. These considerations need to be taken into account, as military dimensions are not the only dimension, there is also political dimensions.

But it would be better if the rebels could just be convinced to give up. If they really care about the people there, why are they fortifying themselves in the cities determined to fight it out? They have no chance of winning without Russian intervention. It seems these local "fighters" are awfully selfish, if they are determined to go down in a  blaze of glory and talk about Stalingrad where over 2 million people died.

[Beet]

NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine — Tanks, artillery and infantry have crossed from Russia into an unbreached part of eastern Ukraine in recent days, attacking Ukrainian forces and causing panic and wholesale retreat not only in this small border town but a wide swath of territory, in what Ukrainian and Western military officials are calling a stealth invasion.

The attacks outside this city and in an area to the north essentially have opened a new, third front in the war in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Russian separatists, along with the fighting outside the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Exhausted, filthy and dismayed, Ukrainian soldiers staggering out of Novoazovsk for safer territory said Tuesday that the forces coming from Russia had treated them like cannon fodder. As they spoke, tank shells whistled in from the east and exploded nearby.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-novoazovsk-crimea.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

When was the last time there was a territorial land grab in Europe from one state to another (as opposed to civil war within a pre-established state, e.g. Yugoslavia?)

[Beet]

The WSJ journal says only "modest" sanctions are being considered:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/european-union-to-decide-on-russia-sanctions-by-friday-1409654982

While Russia claims that the Czechs object to even that:

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140903/192578268/Czech-Republic-Disagrees-With-New-EU-Sanctions-Against-Russia.html

Meanwhile in the U.S., Gazprom bank has hired Trent Lott and John Breaux to lobby for previously imposed sanctions to be lifted:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/gazprom-bank-hire-senator-trent-lott-john-breaux-lobby-110522.html?hp=r5

[Beet]

No doubt China wants to take down the US, but they have no reason to do so militarily when they can do so economically. Buying up Treasuries and promoting de-dollarization via direct bilateral trade and currency swap agreements (you mention the gas deals with Russia) are perfectly good strategies to end USD monetary hegemony and bring the US to its knees via debt and inflation.

This is absurd, China doesn't want to "take down" the U.S., as the U.S. is one of its biggest markets. If the U.S. went down, the Treasury bonds China owns and the trillions of China's dollar reserves would become worthless. China is just like any other country, it wants to do what is best for itself. If it thinks the U.S. is going to stand in the way, then yes it is going to disagree with the U.S., but it has no intrinsic hatred of the U.S. A bilateral currency swap agreement literally just means that if China trades with South Korea, they exchange Chinese currency with South Korean currency. Why must they use dollars if the U.S. is not involved? All it does is increase the costs needlessly. Its not some conspiracy against the dollar. When the U.S. is involved in the trade, dollars will still be used.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually there is some talk of Russia shipping gas to India via pipelines and since Pakistan would charge extortionist prices for crossing its territory Russia could, in the long term, ship gas to India (and all of Southeast Asia for that matter) via China. This would open up a market with over 3 billion people to Russia's gas, nearly half the world's population. It is very good strategic deepening for Russia's energy options.

[Beet]

Well that didn't last long.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraines-fragile-cease-fire-seems-to-be-holding/2014/09/06/b799a458-35fa-11e4-9e92-0899b306bbea_story.html

[Beet]

The whole discussion about blowing things up is irrelevant because it's not going to happen. Putin's actions seem to show that he does value his relations with the West, because otherwise he would have "taken Kiev in two weeks" or so he says. For that reason it's a bit of a straw-man.

The problem is that even far milder actions (like France cancelling the sale of Mistral warships, or ejecting Russia from SWIFT) that would still play significantly into Putin's calculations, are not being considered because of short term economic calculations, as well as the 28-nation unanimity rule for any action to be taken. And since Obama does not seem to want to move ahead of the E.U., Slovakia has an effective veto on not only the whole E.U. bloc but also the U.S. It's the extremely tepid Western response than emboldens Putin, as of course he will move forward if he sees no cost to doing so (as in Crimea). Supplying weapons to Ukraine should be on the table, if not decided upon. After all, even during the Cold War, the West supplied weapons to countries fighting against Soviet domination (Afghanistan) quite successfully, whereas the Soviets supplied the North Koreans and North Vietnamese likewise. None of this implies a direct confrontation.