Ukraine Crisis

[RodPresident]

In presidential election, opposition would go with a candidate with legal issues, Timoshenko (in prison), Klitschko (for living abroad) or go with a most safe option, like Yatseniuk? Can Tyahnybok upset going into run-off and cause a Yanukovich victory in a reverse 1998.

[RodPresident]

Things are going to become Civil War. Party of Regions Rada members are going to resign not only on fear, but because amnesty promises and that EU people need them to get majority. Yanukovich went to his power base (east) than get massacrated in Kiev. Power balance is in Armed Forces and Putin hands. If Putin promises support and Army loyal forces keep around, Yanukovich can build a government in Kharkiv or Donetsk to wage a war against East Ukraine.

[RodPresident]

Ahkmetov stressed the need for a "strong, independent and united Ukraine." So if Yanukovych is planning some sort of secessionist gambit, his top oligarchic ally won't support it.

Oligarchs fear international isolation if they support separatism. Akhmetov's Shakthar can be expelled of European competitions and his money can be freezed. And oligarchs know that they'll be kingmakers in Presidential election between Klitschko and Tymoshenko.

[RodPresident]

I'm at Ukraine now in a hotel ery close to Maidan. Barricades remain and lot of men in camouflaged uniform. Many people selling souvenir and lot of comparisons of Putin and Russians with nazis.

[RodPresident]

Government is purging Right Sector earlier than expected. May be they fear that their actions are counterproductive. Another reason are elections. They fear Yarosh and because many say that.Poroshenko sponsor it, Baktvischina, Svoboda and.UDAR want to get rid of a enemy.

[RodPresident]

A gas relief operation would be a good way to help Ukraine without a dramatic. I think that one of worse things to happen due to Crimean anexation was full Russian control of Azov straits, depriving Ukraine of ports like Berdyansk and Mariupol. A gas relief effort, building gas terminals in Southwest Ukraine would be interesting.