Ukraine Crisis

[GMantis]

It's good to see the Ukrainian people standing up to Russian intimidation. Russia has always since 1991 tried to uphold the premise that all the former Soviet SSR's are inherently Russia's sphere of influence (sans the Baltic states, of course)

Or maybe Russia is upholding the premise that a country can't join a free trade area with one trade block and expect to receive preferential treatment from a rival trade block. In fact, that pretty much what Barroso said earlier this year, though he meant it the other way around. And while an association with the far richer EU would be beneficial to the Ukraine, would it offset damages from worsened trade relations with Russia. Add the kind of conditions that Ukraine would probably have to accept from the IMF for a loan and the choice doesn't seem nearly as clearcut.

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In a country as polarized as Ukraine, statements such as these are about as meaningful as "America stood behind Bush in 2004", ie not at all. As for Georgia, "standing up" against Russia resulted in hundreds of casualties and tens of thousands of people permanently expelled, so perhaps such actions, however brave they may seem viewed from 10 thousand km away, shouldn't be emulated so rashly.

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Yes, if by preponderance you mean that over 80% of the population prefer to use Russian in daily life. But I don't think they are road signs in Russian, at least until recently. Until Yanukovich came to power, the Ukrainian had pursued a persistent Ukrainization policy and had made Ukrainian the only state language - including in the most strongly Russophone provinces of Ukraine (granted, the Crimea was practically an exception). This was changed by a law passed in 2012 which permitted provinces to use an additional language (not only Russian, incidentally) if it was widely spoken on their territory.

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And when Georgia demands that NATO fulfills their treaty obligations and remove the Russian occupying troops (in Georgia's view) from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what will happen then?
Also, Lukashenko being removed doesn't mean that Belarus will suddenly become a pro-Western country. Belarus is overwhelmingly Russian speaking, has little cultural differences with Russia and their national consciousness is fairly weak. So it's quite possible that Belarus might become even closer to Russia if Lukashenko is removed.
And Romney was right in the sense that if you want a country to be your foe, it will eventually become so. Why the US would want this to happen with Russia is another matter.

[GMantis]

According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?

Considering that the Crimean "polite people" were, as Putin himself acknowledged eventually, Russian soldiers, this is a funny question. Actually, it seems quite a few were volunteers. Though not quite clear, how many of those volunteers were voluntary, and how many were ordered to volunteer.

I find it interesting that even you are hesitant to outright claim that there are Russian soldiers in the Donbas. And it's nice that you've stopped with the bizarre claims about Russia wanting to invade half of Europe or something.
Regarding the supposed humanity of the Ukrainian military (of course considering that most of those killed around the airport were retreating, belief in such humanity requires some rather selective interpretation of the facts), what exactly is the justification for the recent usage of cluster ammunition against civilians in Luhansk? Or for that matter the frequent usage of artillery against settlements by the Ukrainian army? Or about the serious accusations against the so-called National Guard regarding war crimes?

[GMantis]

1. Well, in quite a few cases we have of dead men identified, they had resigned from some Russian force days before coming to Ukraine to die.  Whatever that means. They are sending dead bodies to Russia by a truckload, BTW. Main Ukrainian export to the East these days. I do not know, why Russians want them.

Source for the truckloads?

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Considering that Russia has now very good reasons to intervene against Ukraine, but is still doing basically nothing, your assertions do not seem to be based on anything but paranoia. Or perhaps a desire to get attention, but I prefer not to speculate. Though I wonder what your explanation is for why this ultra-aggressive Russia decided to start the wars of expansion against a country that actually gave it a pretty good excuse to do and in one of the few places where a Russian intervention would be welcomed.

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I've seen the cluster bombing reported quite a bit in foreign media. For example here in Bulgaria it was reported by Darik Radio which is about as right-wing and anti-Russian as you can get here.

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That's possible. It's also possible that they think that this would be going too and Russia's patience will finally run out. Or that they will lose planes - and considering the state of the Ukrainian army, that's not a minor worry. And when you look at the record of the Ukrainian army and the thugs pretending to be a National guard regarding civilian casualties, I don't think your arguments look especially convincing.

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I don't exactly see how what Russia does excuse what Ukraine is doing (and it should be added that Russia was fighting actual terrorists). And the citizens in those regions were not in mortal danger until the Ukrainians began to "liberate" them (not to mention that they might not want to be liberated). It seems you are ignoring the Crimea, which despite being woefully deprived of a "liberation" campaign, suffered only three casualties. But I'm sure they're now envious there that the Donbas is about to be liberated

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The brave Ukrainians, protectors of the free world! Thanks, I needed a laugh. I should probably ask why you think that Russia would invade Bulgaria, but I see your non-response to Snowstalker, so it's pointless to try again, as you obviously don't have any rational arguments to support this idea. And the saying was about Poland, not Bulgaria.

Regarding your ridiculous insinuation that I would want my country to be invaded, I probably should feel insulted but then I realized that you probably would like it very much if Russia was to be controlled by other countries, so it's not surprising that you're projecting your views on other people.

[GMantis]

Some evidence regarding the cluster bomb claims (in Russian):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOQ6JckIYHc

[GMantis]

Enjoy. http://echo.msk.ru/blog/maryautomne/1332306-echo/

There is more, if you are interested, but some of that is pretty graphic. Yandex груз 200, it will work.

Thank you for the source, though it doesn't in any way prove that current members of the Russian military are participating on the side of the insurgents.

Very good reasons - that Russia itself has manufactured with great care. Had the Ukrainians done nothing, of course, if they behaved as they in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk would have long been incorporated into Russia and the same "polite men" would have been in Cherson and Odessa by now.

Russia has not manufactured the multiple war crimes committed by the Ukrainian army or the national guard or the various other attacks upon pro-Russian Ukrainians. I don't know exactly what would have happened had the Ukrainians done nothing but at least it's certain that there would be far fewer civilian casualties and perhaps a peaceful solution would be possible.

You have missed the news. Most European fascists have switched to adoring Russia: the last Great White Hope of Europe.

I see that I was unclear. Darik radio is actually closely associated (or at least was) with UDF, the former main right-wing (and rabidly Russophobic) party.

I did not get any of this, except something about "Russian patience". I think, it might be worth putting into a signature. Patience of a wolf with respect to the sheep that has the gall to try kicking. How dare it - it might hurt the babies.

Under patience I meant not reacting to the behavior of the Ukrainian army over the last two months. Patience that might end if Ukrainian air-force starts openly bombing cities.
The comparison with the wolf and sheep is ridiculous, since the Ukrainians haven't actually attacked Russia in any way. The main brunt of their "liberation" war have been their own citizens.

I wonder, what would you consider adequate action, if Varna were occupied by the Russians who were going around killing people and staging extra-judicial executions.

Yes, Ukraine gave up Crimea without fight, because it hoped to avoid casualties. Its reward: Donetsk and Luhansk. If it did not resist there, it would have been Cherson and Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Charkiv, Sumy and Kyiv - and all the way to Lviv. So, they are resisting - how dare they.

Ukraine's basic excuse at this point is that it has given up its nukes back in the 1990s in exchange for "guarantees of territorial integrity". If it hadn't, it could have simply nuked Moscow - which would have been a proper response. But it cannot.

Inadvertently you're repeating a talking point made by our foolish president, making it even less persuasive And while he at least had the excuse of political necessity of not naming a minority that was actually significant and likely to have problems with the majority, you don't
really do, so your argument is yet another wild fantasy without any relevance to the situation. Perhaps we can discuss next whether the Russians will be occupying Brighton Beach?

I suggest that it was far more likely for Ukraine's abandonment of Crimea was the prospect of an unwinable fight with the actual Russian forces and the unreliability of their forces there (proven correct when most of them deserted the Ukrainian army). And the uprisings in Donetsk and Luhansk didn't come out of a vacuum but after a month of actions seemingly deliberately chosen to antagonize the local population.

And if you think that nuking Moscow was the proper response to Russia occupying an area where most inhabitants don't want to be part of Ukraine, then you have truly lost any rationality over this issue.

Good, somebody still can laugh. I cannot anymore, I cry. We do not know, who is going to be next: but we know, that it only can be stopped by resistance. Unless the Russians feel the pain, they will go on. You are lucky to not have the common border: but that might be only a matter of time.

BTW, I hear your government has had the temerity to suspend the Southern Flow, hasn´t it? How dared it?

What do you mean under pain? I hope it's not a nuclear attack, but after the last post I'm not too sure...

And your knowledge of Bulgaria's politics is sadly out of date, 25 years out of date to be precise. Nowadays the daring was in the government attempting to continue with South Stream after the Crimean crisis. But of course US ambassador eventually spoke against it and to hammer in the point, McCain and two other senators spoke with the prime minister in person on this issue. Of course, just in case he proved recalcitrant, the government suddenly collapsed just the day before...

You really do not want Bulgaria to be returned into the fold? Then switch back on your eyes, your ears and your brain, and get to terms with what is going on. The largest European country has had a proper fascist regime installed, the regime bent on acquiring back what it considers lost. It is a clear and present danger to all around it. Not so much to myself - I live in one of the safest places there is out there in case the worst happens. But you do not have that luxury.

Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCsRaD-2uW0

My brain is switched on. Otherwise I might have overlooked how your source for the truckloads of bodies was one of the most popular radio stations of a supposedly fascist country. Or perhaps this is your special definition of fascist which seems to include any regime you particularly dislike.

[GMantis]

I just was about to repeat that I did acknowledge that these guys tended to have RESIGNED from the Russian security services - sometimes days or weeks before finding themselves in Ukraine, so "technically" you were right. However, as of today, it seems, you are wrong even on technicality (not that being "technically" correct ever mattered).

http://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/446841/

Apparently, Russian anti-aircraft units have been protecting these tanks since the morning. This, by the way, is pretty deep inside Ukraine.

Any evidence that these tanks have been moved there from Russia and not captured from the Ukrainians, who apparently have a tank arsenal near Makeevka? They're also not Tanks currently used by the Russian army.

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The war was started by the Ukrainian army, unless you want to describe the capture of public buildings as war (which would make the overthrow of Yanukovych war as well, of course). And of course the Ukrainian side would never make such a statement, as they would hardly want it their mass usage of artillery against towns (which for example led to the destruction of much of Slavyansk) more widely known.

Regarding war crimes, are you going to deny that the Ukrainian side has committed them or that the Russians were somehow responsible? The first is bordering on the absurd on this point (see bombing by both artillery and planes of densely settled areas or the shooting at unarmed civilians) while the second seems close to outright to denial of reality (you don't even have the excuse of being misinformed, obviously).

As for fascism, you still haven't explained what you mean under fascism, so I'm going to assume it's your special brand of fascism, undetectable by anyone but yourself, but apparently so vile that it justifies any atrocities against the "fascists"

[GMantis]

Strongly nationalist

Really? That's the same regime that has allowed Chechnya to become a de-facto Islamic state, that allows local ethnic majorities to dominate over Russians (and even in some cases when they're not majorities) and that, if not encouraging it, takes a very tolerant view of immigration, both legal and illegal from Central Asia. Of course you might have your own definition of nationalism, like you do of antisemitism...

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Russia does not even come close in level of repression to many of the regimes in the region, so I don't quite see how that is evidence of fascism. The same is true of democracy (even if you claim that the elections are entirely rigged, which I doubt even you would do). Also, not many fascist regimes would allow the opposition to take over their third largest city (or have a non-imprisoned opposition in the first place).

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Most of the economy is in private hands, mostly obtained by very dubious means and except in a few who were too egregious in conspiring with foreign powers and trying to usurp power, preserved them under Putin. This looks more like robber, rather than state capitalism. And Putin's sway over the economy is actually pretty weak. For example, the Duma refused a few years to pass that would end foreign control over credit card operations, with predictable effects once banks started to be sanctioned.

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This is hardly something Putin introduced? And is a judiciary essentially controlled by oligarchs (as in the 90s) any better?

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The argument would be stronger if elections for regional governors hadn't been reintroduced recently.

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And these minorities are? It's certainly not any of the significant ones. You might have a point about foreigners but then again Russia has been demonized over a long time in foreign media, so a reaction is inevitable at this point.

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If a politician is financed by a foreign power (either directly or under the fiction of a "N"GO), why would that label be incorrect?

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Not really widespread against most political opposition. Then again that is hardly needed...

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Nice cop-out. But it would be absurd to argue that Mussolini or any other fascist would tolerate one of the most popular radio stations to be openly opposed to him, especially in the way that the Moscow Echo is.

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Preventing Georgia from retaking a region over which it has little claim other than being part of the Georgian SSR (which was never intended to be an independent state) and while attacking Russian citizens and peace-keepers or taking over a majority Russian peninsula that obviously supports joining Russia and to avoid a clear threat against them is not expansionism, but rather back to the wall defending of what few allies Russia has left.

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Also known as recovering from the disaster that was the Yeltzin era. What would you consider a properly strong army for Russia? One that is only good for peacekeeping missions?

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For example? And for the security service the same argument and question as above applies.

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I don't know what to call your distortions of the facts and strange reinterpretation of well defined terms, but it's probably not ignorance.

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While the Russian fascists - who probably are in a better position to judge than foreigners - have been very strongly against him.

[GMantis]

As war I am describing moving in a large number foreign agents into the country.

This would hardly be a war even if they were government agents. For which there is scant evidence outside of Ukrainian propaganda. Most governments do not generally arrest their agents when they're carrying out their work.

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Actually, considering that Strelkov has complained multiple times that he's not receiving enough support from Russia, such a claim is hardly believable without a source.
In any case, especially clearly shown by their weapons, when the uprising started, nearly all insurgents were locals. If Russian citizens have arrived since then, they can hardly be blamed for starting it.
Also one wonders why if the local population was so opposed to the uprising they blocked  (in the beginning, before the usage of violence became indiscriminate) the Ukrainian army from advancing against the insurgents.

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So basically the same as the "freedom fighters" of the Maidan? And even if we accept these claims of mass execution, they occurred only after the "liberation war" had started?
As for the nationalizations, it is pretty obvious that they at least are not influenced by Moscow, as on these issues the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs can easily find a common language.

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Considering the not exactly impressive performance of the Ukrainian army so far, they would have lost Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts a long time ago if faced with "polite people" (ie well armed and trained Russian soldiers).

Also again a nice dodge of avoiding discussing the crimes committed in the process of "protecting" the local population by the Ukrainian forces.

[GMantis]

Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.

Before believing the Ukrainian government too much, it should be noted that they haven't proven very trustworthy in the past, for example going as far as claiming that the insurgents in Slavyansk shelled the town themselves to make the Ukrainian army look bad.

[GMantis]

Russia has shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet flying in Ukrainian airspace.

This is after shooting down a high altitude Ukrainian military transport plane last week.

They are openly engaging in acts of war now.

Before believing the Ukrainian government too much, it should be noted that they haven't proven very trustworthy in the past, for example going as far as claiming that the insurgents in Slavyansk shelled the town themselves to make the Ukrainian army look bad.

Why are you such a Russian hack? Do you work for Pravda or something?

Does a Russian hack means someone who doesn't swallow every preposterous lie the Ukraine media government supplies to Western media? If so, I am. If we use a common sense definition of the term, certainly not. If you had bothered to check my other posts you would have seen for example that I believed that the pro-Russian rebels shot down the Malaysian plane today. But of course that would require effort which someone who prefers to have a simple-minded black and white world-view would be unlike to make. And of course you could read my other posts on this very page, and I'm ready to defend everything that I've written there - if you were able to use actual arguments, instead of reflexive name calling.

[GMantis]

I trust the State Department about as much as I trust the Kremlin.

Sorry, but the U.S. has had the far more believable case throughout the Ukraine crisis. Also:

https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/491997024737570816
http://cs620429.vk.me/v620429164/ea66/k14ggwJC9qk.jpg

And this is evidence why exactly? It's not as if to social networks are immune to fake news.