Ukraine Crisis

[RogueBeaver]

Independence Square in Kyiv is occupied by protestors, and government buildings are being blockaded. Yanukovych is caught between 2 rocks. Can't sign the Customs Union when this has become a nationalist issue, can't reverse course without pissing off Putin. Some cracks are appearing in his party: the parliamentary speaker wants a government-opposition roundtable and sees no need for a state of emergency. Either Klitschko or Tymoshenko would trounce him in 2015 per the latest polls, so there's not much to look forward to either.

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-12-01/violent-clashes-huge-protest-in-kiev-ukraine-viktor-yanukovich-vitaly-klitschko/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25088613

[RogueBeaver]

There might be a non-confidence motion later today, but Yanukovych's POR holds a parliamentary majority and at any rate there's no way to enforce a government resignation without Yanukovych's cooperation IIRC, unless the rules changed since 2004.

[RogueBeaver]

Non-confidence failed. Had 186, needed 226 which won't happen without major POR defections.

[RogueBeaver]

They've also ransacked media outlets and stole one of their servers. Ashton will be flying into Kiev tomorrow, while Biden, Bildt and the US Embassy have all personally warned Yanukovych not to use force. Yanukovych has agreed to a proposal from the ex-presidents for roundtable talks. Merkel and the EPP are backing Klitschko, who will meet Flanby and Fabius in Paris tomorrow. Remember: Yanukovych wanted to use force in 2004 but was overruled by Kuchma.

[RogueBeaver]

Police are clearing Maidan out as we speak.

[RogueBeaver]

Tomorrow Maidan will attack. There are also 5 tanks and some APCs inbound from Kharkov. State of emergency will also be imposed, tonight they'll cut electricity. Been interfering with electronic comms all day. Oh, and 5 people have been killed with over 300 injured today alone.

[RogueBeaver]

They didn't take the obvious bait, said protests will continue till the laws are repealed, parliamentary republicanism is restored, Tymoshenko's released and an early presidential election is held. The oligarchs are meeting tonight. They're probably the key here.

[RogueBeaver]

EU has agreed on a sanctions package that includes asset freezes and visa bans, per BBC. Oligarchs, alas, aren't on that list.

[RogueBeaver]

There were reports earlier that the EU FMs had gotten an agreement for early parliamentary and presidential elections, but subsequently backtracked. Klitschko also said they haven't reached agreement.

[RogueBeaver]

The Army's deputy chief of staff has resigned, BBC citing local media.

[RogueBeaver]

The street isn't happy, primarily because Yanukovych remains in office till the election.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus Tymoshenko is still in jail and Klitschko's residency issue is still unclear.

[RogueBeaver]

Rada has just voted to release Tymoshenko. 12 more MPs have left POR.

[RogueBeaver]

Protestors are calling for Yanukovych to leave by 10 AM tomorrow or else. Opposition leaders got a hostile reception when addressing the crowd. Meanwhile in the Rada, an impeachment bill has been filed.

[RogueBeaver]

A lot of unconfirmed reports that Yanukovych and some of his top allies have either fled by air to Kharkiv or from Kharkiv to Russia.

[RogueBeaver]

Ukrainian media outlet cites presidential administration sources as saying Yanukovych and a handful of top allies and guards are Kharkiv-bound.

[RogueBeaver]

Ukrainian media reporting that there's 20000 anti-Yanukovych protestors marching in Kharkiv now. Here's an alleged video.

[RogueBeaver]

Yanukovych's personal belongings are being evacuated from his Kyiv residence, local media say.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently he'll make a statement about "the split of Ukraine", whatever the hell that means. Hopefully only metaphorical.

[RogueBeaver]

Security services have opened a criminal case against the mayor of Kharkiv for promoting separatism.

[RogueBeaver]

Yanukovych is not resigning, and says current parliament is illegal. Hmm, maybe an arrest warrant executed by the military should be forthcoming.

[RogueBeaver]

Says east is "stable" unlike west.

[RogueBeaver]

21st century Marcos, and his family has plenty of loot too. Man's clearly insane.

[RogueBeaver]

I meant what he's doing now is insane, not the loot.

[RogueBeaver]

He could've taken a plane to Moscow. Didn't.