Ukraine Crisis

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm just waiting for Thomas Freidman to weigh in with his lucid commentary, naturally.

He already "wrote" next week's column two months early.

(Sadly, thomasfriedmanopedgenerator.com appears to be offline, hopefully just for the moment, so I had to link a cached copy of it from Google.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-delays-announcement-of-new-government/1858553.html

In addition to delaying the formation of a unity Government, the Parliament of Ukraine has voted to recommend that the International Criminal Court try Yankouvych, former Interior Minister Vitaly Zharchencko and former Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka for "Serious Crimes"

That makes a degree of sense.  Clearly Russia and the Russophiles in Ukraine would never accept the legitimacy of a domestic prosecution.  Even if one accepts the legitimacy, the possibility of them getting a fair hearing in the Ukraine is slim.  Also, once handed over to the Hague, there would be no possibility of pressuring the new government to release them.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This reminds me that US is currently relying on the Russian space program to get to the International Space Station.

Well, if this leads to us defunding the wasteful ISS, at least one good thing will have come out of it, tho it's not enough to make what's happening good overall.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Resolution is ambiguous: mentions "Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country."

CBG in the Black Sea? Or a couple of SSNs?

Can't.  The Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits limits what we can send into the Black Sea and what little we could send can only stay there 21 days.  Neither surface vessels larger than 15,000 tons nor submarines may enter. Carriers aren't explicitly excluded, but the tonnage limit effectively excludes them.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

Honestly, G8 should be dissolved and we should return to the previous G7.

No, we need to keep a G8, but dump Russia and add Brazil. (Or to really troll Russia, add China in place of Russia.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Russia has never been happy about Khrushchev's transfer of the Crimea to the Ukraine and at least there is an existing autonomous republic it can use to provide a veneer of legitimacy for its takeover.  But there is no obvious border for a split of the rest of Ukraine.  I think the Russian strategy is to treat this as another Georgia where it lopped off the former Soviet-era autonomous districts along its borders. So while it will seek control of the Crimea and Sevastopol, I'm fairly hopeful that Putin will not make a play for the Eastern Ukraine.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

"Refusal to provide a grand jury testimony concerning activists in the region" sounds very civil and peaceful unless one knows that those "activists"  were black bloc anarchist thugs who engaged in extensive vandalism during May Day 2012 protests in Seattle.  By contrast, Pussy Riot caused no damage with their protest.  So trying to equate the two is absurd.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Now here's a tough question: is there a single politician in Ukraine - of any persuasion - who isn't a complete idiot?

Fixed.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

Yeah, punish a bunch of soccer players. Not like politicizing international sports hasn't backfired before.  That'll show Russia.

Forcing FIFA to move the Cup out of Russia while there is still time to reschedule it elsewhere wouldn't hurt soccer players generally.

Read this article

http://news.yahoo.com/mccain-punish-putin-000600943--politics.html

Georgia into NATO? Even if McCain were President and far more persuasive than he actually is, there is zero chance that the Europeans would agree to that. Possibly, just possibly they'd agree to the Ukraine joining NATO once it has lost the Crimea, but even that would be a stretch.  Plus it's not as if NATO would be likely to move major forces into the Ukraine.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe we should give the Veto power to an another country from the ex soviet Union?

Who are "we" and how do you propose "we" should do that exactly ?

-Oh hey Vladou, mind if we strip you of your veto in the UNSC ?
-Not at all, West, go ahead, see if I care !
-Oh and you wouldn't be a permanent member either...
-No worries, mate. Who are you getting in ?
-Well, we thought about Estonia. Nothing sure yet.
-Good, good.
-See ya !

By a vote of the General Assembly, it was stripped from the Republic of China to give it to the People's Republic of China over the objections of the former and of the US.  The UN Charter still lists the USSR and not Russia as the veto power, so the 1971 precedent could be used to give the USSR veto to another former Soviet republic, not that I think that would happen.  Maybe an outside chance the GA would vote that the veto needs to be collectively agreed upon by the former Soviet republics, but even that is far-fetched.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This thread is a massive abortion. Make it stop.

I thought green avatars were pro-choice?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Russia is considered a successor-state of the Soviet Union as far as international relations are concerned.

Taiwan precedent doesn't really apply. There were two governments (Taipei and Beijing) claiming to be China's sole representation. You can't seriously spin Georgia or Lithuania or Estonia or Kazakhstan as the USSR successor. These countries did secede, Russia did not. Beside, Baltic states does not recognize their time as the Soviet Republic as legitimate.

I agree that Russia is the logical choice, as is the PRC in the case of China, yet the UN has not always been constrained by logic.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So a little under 12 hours to war then?  The only question appears to be whether Russia fires first or is able to successfully spook Ukraine into doing so.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Bulgaria can be in the EU, Ukraine can be in the EU.

Ukraine has significantly more problems than Bulgaria even ignoring the last couple months.

And Bulgaria really shouldn't be in the EU yet

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Putin: I have no intention of annexing Crimea.

Then what, exactly, is his intentions?

Supporting the Crimeans in their quest for independence from the evil Neo-Nazi Ukrainians of course.  But he won't annex Crimea any more than he will annex Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Transnistria.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not now. If Putin's aim was to take control of Ukraine via a pro-Russian government, he's horribly misplayed his hand. But I don't think that is Putin's aim.  What happened with Yanukovych I think convinced him that the EU would interfere sufficiently that he would not be able to bring all of Ukraine into his orbit.  So he aimed for Crimea with what's going on in Eastern Ukraine intended mainly as a bargaining chip rather than a serious attempt at control unless he got lucky.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev just made the following statement:

- The Crimean parliament's decision to join the Russian Federation is effective immediately.

- As of this moment, Ukraninian troops on Crimea are considered an occupation force. Ukrainian soldiers on Crimea must either accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian army or leave the peninsula.

Who the f**k is this Temirgaliev guy anyway? Seems like a major troll to me.

Seems odd considering that Russian troops have apparently pulled back from one Ukrainian base in the Crimea:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26466902

Is the pullback a PR stunt or did it cause the Crimeans to try forcing Putin's hand because they began to worry he'd abandon them? Not that I think they have anything to worry about on that front, but if that were to happen now, they'd be up [Inks] creek without a paddle, or even a boat, so I can understand them making certain they are securely on the back of the bear they have chosen to ride.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe he would be interested in the FYR sans Slovenia and Croatia? but then again Yugoslavia was a neutral communist country in the Cold War.

Russian interest there is a mixture of simple power politics mixed with 19th century Romantic Pan-Slavism.  To a degree that also explains Serbian interest, tho I think that all but the most hard-headed Serbs realize that renewed Serbian dominance of the South Slavs is pure Romantic fiction at this point.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SPIEGEL ONLINE reports that Angela Merkel will boycott the G8 Summit in Sochi if the Crimean referendum isn't cancelled.

Good, but sanctions and expelling Russia from the G8 would be better.

Why bother?  The G7 still meets from time to time and many of the more important things the G8 did have been transferred to the G20.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.

Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.

Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine - far from Crimea. A public commitment to defense of, at least, mainland Ukraine is urgent. Otherwise, we will be discussing Poland a lot sooner than most think.

I get that you are anxious, ag, I really get it. But Poland is part of the EU and Nato for Bretzel's sake ! It's a completely different story.

Agreed.
Georgia is Austria.
Ukraine is Czechoslovakia.
Poland is Poland, which means it needs to be prepared to have a nervous Germany stab her in the back to secure its gas supply.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...

Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.

please let's not make this another hack thread about US politics, k?

back on topic, is there no representation in the Crimean parliament for non-Russian ethnics?

There is no assigned ethnic representation.  Back in the 2010 Crimean elections, the Party of Regions won 80 of the 100 seats and Strong Ukraine which later merged into it won 2 seats. The Russian Unity Party (which advocated reunification with Russia) won another 3 seats and the Communists 5 seats.  Qurultai-Rukh, which is a Tatar ethnic party and the Union Party (which advocated closer EU ties but also adding Russian as a second official language for Ukraine) each won 5 seats.  So even without the latest round of shenanigans there was at least a 90-10 split in favor of Russia assuming everyone in the Party of Regions has gone along with the Anchluss.  Possibly 95-5 depending upon how the Union Party decided to go on the Anchluss issue.

So the strong support in the Crimean Parliament for the Anchluss is not really due to opponents being excluded.  There hasn't been a need for that as there effectively was no opposition, even before all this started.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Incidentally, the Crimea parliament was elected from 50 single-member constituencies, and another 50 elected by proportional representation with an apparent 2 member threshold.  The PR was only for the 50 seats, not for topping off and evening out the results of the constituency votes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".

Putin do look a bit like Vercingoterix.

But surely he was taller?

Vercingoterix, not Asterix.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At first glance it seems odd that Crimea will be moving their clocks ahead two hours.  Granted, the change in time zone is one more way of emphasizing they are not Ukraine, but a change of one hour would accomplish that.  However Russia for some weird reason is on permanent daylight savings, so if they only shifted one hour they'd be sharing the same time as Ukraine during the summer.  So instead of having a time zone close to solar time, the Crimea will be close to two hours ahead because of stupid politics that will keep them from having a reasonable time zone.