Ukraine Crisis

[Peeperkorn]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

[Peeperkorn]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

I don't think the EU or NATO would allow a full-scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

I know, but I can see some kind of Russian militar interventionism if a pseudo civil war starts. It would be an obvious movement.

[Peeperkorn]

Maybe they should just get it over with and formally split the country into two. This would solve a heck of a lot of problems/img]

It's not that easy. Central regions are not that homogeneous:



The advantage for "europeists" is that they have a plurality of the votes of the youth even in the east.

[Peeperkorn]

And Crimea should have never been part of Ukraine. It was a Kruschev's whim and I can't understand why it didn't go back to Russia when the USSR collapsed.

[Peeperkorn]

Rumours of the Gov. allowing army to put things in order.

Sincerely, I can't see any solution for all this trouble.

[Peeperkorn]

Pro-Russian Separatism Rises In Crimea As Ukraine's Crisis Unfolds

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-crimea-rising-separatism/25268303.html

[Peeperkorn]

naive "liberal" students

Says the naive "socialist" high schooler.

You do know the protesters range from centrists to neo-Nazis, right? Ukraine will either be a slave to Merkel, a slave to Putin, or a slave to local (literal, not even hyperbolic) fascists. It will not end well.

Sos un pelotudo importante.

[Peeperkorn]

The nationalists are like the 10% of the opposition. I would be more concerned about the far right in countries like France.

[Peeperkorn]

humanitarian grounds. The goal is to gain influence and power, not to be nice and moral.

The reason I think the West should support the "rebels" in this case is almost solely to undermine Russia.

This.

[Peeperkorn]

Guys, stop bullsh**tting about this sh**t. People are dying. I myself may have many problems with this or that, but when the government sends snipers to shoot citizens in the streets, it is time to shut up - at least until the moment when that government is no longer there.

What?

[Peeperkorn]

Thousands Storm Viktor Yanukovych's Palace, Find His Private Zoo And Other Luxuries (PHOTOS)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/22/yanukovych-zoo-palace-ukraine_n_4838187.html

[Peeperkorn]

If this escalates into a virtual civil war, remember Hungary 1956.

Told you.

[Peeperkorn]

I can see three possible scenarios:

a) The most probable: some kind of deal under the table between Western powers and Russia, with an Ukrainian Crimea with more autonomy from Kiev and Moscow getting complete control of key ports and airports (like American bases in Spain, Italy and Germany...or Okinawa).

b) Kiev trading an independent Crimea as a Russian puppet state while they keep their freedom to join EU.

c) Kiev not accepting any deal (kamikaze option). Moscow would occupy all Crimea and annex it.

The main problem is far eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkov): they not only speak Russian and prefer good relations with Moscow: they ARE ethnic Russians. Would they accept a "westernized" country? Not so sure.

[Peeperkorn]

Gracias por la información, ag.

Best map I have found comes precisely from 2001 census.



Another one from 2001:

[Peeperkorn]

Concerning the validity of the census I found this analysis:

http://www.ukrweekly.com/old/archive/2003/020302.shtml

Wikipedia with complete results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Census_%282001%29

[Peeperkorn]

Reading about Crimean politics on Wikipedia and it's crazy.

If you want crazyness, try to understand Central Asia Politics. Especially Turkmenistan.

Also:

El Pais de Madrid is reporting that Ukraine's Coastguard has received instructions for protecting all Black Sea ports from any Russian incursion.

It could be a mistake from the media or it could be a kamikaze movement.

--

Update, Wall Street Journal:

Breaking: Ukraine Warships in Black Sea

    

*Ukraine Warships Deployed in Black Sea on Alert — Border Service Official
*Ukraine Border Forces: Will Do Everything to Prevent Seizure of Bases, Ships
*Military Attempting to Take Control of Border Naval Bases Said They Act on Orders From Moscow — Ukraine Border Official

http://stream.wsj.com/story/deadly-clashes-in-ukraine/SS-2-457850/SS-2-468999/?mod=wsj_streaming_deadly-clashes-in-ukraine

[Peeperkorn]

Protestors have occupied the Kharkiv regional administration and raised the flag of Russia.

Apparently there were like 50 injured in clashes between pro-Russians and pro-Kiev in the city.

[Peeperkorn]

Donetsk:

[Peeperkorn]

And no one will do a damn thing.

I'm sorry for sounding cynical here, but what actually can be done?

Exchange Ukraine for Syria?

[Peeperkorn]

Wonder if Putin invades all of Eastern Ukraine or most of Ukraine before pulling back and securing puppet state a la Georgia.

Federation Council unanimously approved AUMF.

Wait, wait, wait.

No invasion for the moment. Well, yes in Crimea, but it was never an actual part of Ukraine anyway.

I think that now we should watch how Ethnic Russian Ukrainians interact with the real Ukrainians and the new government and if they reach an agreement (more autonomy).

If not, perhaps we could have a new Transnistria de facto between Ukraine and Russia.

[Peeperkorn]

Thank god we have the mighty Swedish army in our side in this time of darkness.

[Peeperkorn]

All I can say is that Putin's actions were... unexpected.

I "joked" with Hungary 1956, but I thought it would only happen in a situation of national chaos.

[Peeperkorn]

So is anyone else afraid Obama will go cowboy after his Syria wavering and start WWIII?

Going to war against an authoritarian warmonger with 2 thousands nuclear bombs doesn't make any sense.

We have Sweden for the moment.

[Peeperkorn]

Lithuania's FM Linkevicius has said Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine means "Nato, art. 4 becomes valid," referring to article 4 of the Nato treaty. The article says Nato members must meet for consultations if "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

[Peeperkorn]

This would make sense if Ukraine were a NATO member.

Don't tell me...