Ukraine Crisis

[politicus]

Thank god we have the mighty Swedish army in our side in this time of darkness.

All 50.000 of them!

But I think Bildt is right to state this obvious fact. All countries in Europe should condemn this aggression.

[politicus]

Seriously. This was an interesting thread on a serious topic. The mods ban Opebo but allow this sh**t? Ridiculous.

There would be no sh**t if people stopped taking the bait. Don't feed the Snowtroll guys, its not that hard.

[politicus]

Regarding the security guarantee Budpest Memorandum signed by UK, US and Russia. Does anyone know why France and China didn't sign it? Wikipedia says they "later gave individual statements of assurance" is this correct? Neither China nor France seems to have any intentions of getting involved in this.

[politicus]

And to think the Russians have the Gaul to call the Ukrainians "fascists".

Putin do look a bit like Vercingoterix.

[politicus]

Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?

[politicus]

Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?

Will Ukraine really be any worse without them? They seem to be filled with pro-Russian trouble makers and sh*t disturbers.

1. A very big chunk of their economic base is in the East

2. While mostly Russian speakers Eastern Ukrainians are Ukrainians too.

3. The troublemakers are - mainly - Russians from Russia.

[politicus]

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.

There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.

[politicus]

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.

There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.

Russia sells, mostly, oil and gas. It charges particularly high prices for gas, because Europe is a captive market for the moment. It would not be able to charge any such premium elsewhere.

Who are major Russian trade partners outside the West and China? Well, the ex-Soviets, of course. And elsewhere? Turkey, I guess - but that one is also in NATO. There is a reason for that.

What is Russia going to trade with Venezuela? Oil?

What on earth made you think of Venezuela of all places?

India, South Korea and Japan are more relevant. In general there are plenty of countries willing to buy oil and gas.

EDIT: My answer was in regard to Ernests assertion that Russia would have no choice but to be "a Chinese economic vasal", not whether it would lose income (at least in the short to medium run) by a break with the West, which is a given.

[politicus]

What difference, other than language and self-identification, do you want? All Europeans, broadly, look the same

Well, the difference between the common look in the Mediterranean countries and Scandinavia should be quite obvious to anyone without a visual disability.

[politicus]

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.

There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.

Russia has developed its economy primarily by being a provider of raw resources. Europe and China are not only the most convenient markets for Russia geographically, they also are the ones that have the greatest demand for what Russia is set up to produce for export.

While pipelines is indeed an important factor, when we are talking crude oil its a different matter and a large number of countries, especially in Asia, have a huge oil demand and could provide alternative markets.

Besides its not all raw materials. Russia has 27 percent of global arms exports and this is a truly global market with Latin America and the Middle East being areas where Russia has gained market shares recently.

[politicus]

Besides its not all raw materials. Russia has 27 percent of global arms exports and this is a truly global market with Latin America and the Middle East being areas where Russia has gained market shares recently.

Oil is a global market, of course. Which means that the price is, more or less, the same across the world. If Russia is not exploiting its European pipeline, it is going to be the same wit gas. These prices will be going down, given the current technological developments. Russia crucially depends on them staying up. However, Russia's actions are spurring the technological advances that are going to accelerate their downward trend.

Weapons, of course, is another Russian export. Though, interestingly, this Russian industry has been quite integrated with... Ukraine So, buyers of certain Russian arms might find that maintenance (never a Russian strong point) is not very readily available, as spare parts were Ukrainian production (now likely to be discontinued). In any case, this industry is not big enough given Russia's size. What else do they export to, say, Latin America?

Anyways, nobody, of course, is taking the sentence about the "Chinese economic vassal" literally (at least, nobody should). But there is a grain of truth in it: there are reasons the broad West and China Russia's dominant trading partners, and they cannot be easily replaced. If Russia cuts itself off the West, it will be, to a much greater extent than now, the resource supplier for China - with whatever else that implies.

Oil and gas will increasingly become scarce commodities while demand increases keeping prices up.

China is not the only game in town. Why shouldn't Russia be able to cut into the Indian, Brazilian, Japanese and South Korean energy markets?

Anyway, the general trend in Russian economic policies lately seems to be focused on disentangling its economy from the West and gaining a more independent position.

Are the Ukrainian arms industry located mainly in the East or all over the country?

[politicus]

I am not missing your point about Russian profits going down if they are just another player on the global market. My focus here is just different: If we assume (for the sake of argument and to clarify possibilities) that the Russian leadership a) really wants to reincorporate Eastern Ukraine and other areas with a Russian or Russian-speaking population and b) is prepared to risk isolation from the West and a loss of some income how are their options?

It was in this context that Ernest claimed they would have no choice, but to become a Chinese economic vassal and I counter argued.

Technology only takes you so far. At the end of the day oil and gas are nonrenewable resources, so in the long run prices will increase (unless we have a breakthrough on renewable energy) and I am a pessimist on this. We will get a few decades of cheaper energy and then prices will increase again. Demand is just growing too fast.

And, BTW, Japan is as much part of the West as, say, France. And with a serious territorial issue with Russia to boot.

Regarding Japan I don't see the Japanese following a US/EU boycott of Russia. Especially not with the present leadership.


  

[politicus]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea_and_Sevastopol#Stances

I guess fighting a 13 year long war doesn't stop a country from being a pawn of Putin.

are cuban-russian relations not good these days?

[politicus]

I have to say, if this continues I don't see anything stopping Putin from trying to reconstitute much of Tsarist Russia. That said, ag, I think the main factor will be, as I mentioned before, the local population's willingness to resist & how much they value their independence from Russia. Afghanistan and Chechnya have shown that even small, powerless populations can imposing punishing costs on a behemoth if they are determined to do so. The main reason Putin is winning is because there is very little resistance. People are either afraid or simply don't care whether they are absorbed into Russia.

Mountains is a key factor in this. If Afghanistan and Chechnya had the geography of Ukraine they wouldn't have been able to resist for long.

[politicus]

Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

That's just silly, losing your life is a big deal for everyone. Geography is the main difference, you need adequate terrain (mountains, jungles, swamps) to fight a superior enemy.

[politicus]

Ukrainians won't fight because they are a (relatively) well off country. It's not worth it to give up their comfortable existence to maybe die fighting the Russians.

Afghanistan, on the other hand, was a third world country. Even if a Mujaheddin died, he wasn't losing much.

That's just silly, losing your life is a big deal for everyone. Geography is the main difference, you need adequate terrain (mountains, jungles, swamps) to fight a superior enemy.

Ukrainians fought for 9 years after WWII. So did Lithuanians. But for the moment they are trying to avoid the full-scale war. Civilians try to demonstrate: they have been badly hurt in several Donetsk cities. It is too early for a partisan war to have started: let us hope it never does.

Thats counting some very small groups in the end.

But OK, Ill qualify it: to fight succesfully against a superior enemy you need adequate terrain. A sustained partisan war in some remote forests and swamps is not enough in itself.

[politicus]

I think there are a lot of places where they could resolve problems definitively. This might be one of them.

So you advocate ethnic cleansing?

[politicus]

Perhaps in the Donbass it could be limited to active collaborators, but those in the Crimea who have declared themselves to be Russian should have their wishes respected and be treated accordingly if an when Ukraine establishes authority over the region. If you want to call that "ethnic cleansing", be my guest.

Well, you just gave the Russians the chance to deport the Tartars: you know, they have their wishes quite public as well. Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII. Besides, how are you going to distinguish those who voted for Russia from those who did not?

Fortunately, Ukrainian government is very explicit in distinguishing between active traitors: those who actively participated in the annexation - and the rest, whom it considers its citizens and whom it is trying to take care of. This is both much more morally sound - and more productive in the long term.

That is essentially what I have said.

No, you talked about the group that has declared themselves to be Russian = anyone who voted for union with Russia.

[politicus]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/russia-moves-artillery-units-into-ukraine-nato-says.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Ok. Now this is acknowledged officially.  Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian Army from Ukrainian territory: NATO knows it. What the hell are they planning to do about it ?!

Probably nothing. Its not their responsibility to assist Ukraine.

[politicus]

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I'm so incredible tired of this comparison, yes Chamberlain and Daladier sold Czechoslovakia out, after which they returned home and mobilised, because they was able to see that they could not take out Germany at that point.

As for the whole Ukraine crisis, if you think we don't do enough, you should volunteer to their armed forces.

Germany became stronger relative to Britain/France by waiting. That goes for the entire 1936-1939 period.

[politicus]

I didn't think it deserved it's own thread, but it is interesting.

Simfan made a Russia General Discussion:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196098.0

[politicus]

Russia threatens to cut off gas supply to EU countries because of reexporting to Ukraine.

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-eu-mustnt-export-gas-ukraine-report-071735764.html

[politicus]

It's a little unnerving how effective the Kremlin's propaganda has been in swaying the opinions of impressionable young Americans.

Considering the present Ukrainian government more fascist than Putin's regime is strange indeed.

[politicus]

New ceasefire (brokered by Merkel and Hollande) as starting point for peace plan.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/12/ukraine-ceasefire-european-leaders-sceptical-peace-plan-will-work


"The main points of the agreement

    Ceasefire to begin at 00.00am local time on 15 February
    Heavy weapons withdrawn in a two week period starting from 17 February
    Amnesty for prisoners involved in fighting
    Withdrawal of all foreign militias from Ukrainian territory and the disarmament of all illegal groups
    Lifting of restrictions in rebel areas of Ukraine
    Decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of 2015
    Ukrainian control of the border with Russia by the end of 2015

The participants also agreed to attend regular meetings ​​to ensure the fulfilment of the ​​agreements, ​a Russian-distributed document said."

[politicus]

Looks like they're still fighting out there.

"Ceasefire to begin at 00.00am local time on 15 February"