Ukraine Crisis

[Velasco]

Where are Russian troops stationed right now?

Perhaps this might help. The last update was a week ago, but anyway.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html

[Velasco]

Anyway pro-Russian activists occupied a government building, proclaiming the 'People's Republic of Donetsk' and reclaiming a self-determination referendum.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/apr/07/donetsk-protesters-independence-ukraine-russia-video

The Ukrainian government appointed some oligarchs as governors in several eastern oblasts, in an attempt to support the stability of the Russian speaking regions with "well-known and powerful" personalities. However, such appointments have accomplished nothing but to inflate the indignation of pro-Russian. Some leader of the 'Donetsk Republic' called Andrei Purgin said a week ago that appointing an oligarch as Sergei Taruta -current governor of Donetsk- is "very offensive" for the local people in dire straits and warned: "in Kiev there has been a revolution, and I am afraid that the same thing is going to happen here, a revolt without the chance of going back". According to Purgin, they want to ask the people on two options: federation with Ukraine or joining Russia. He said he would conform to "a status similar to that of Bavaria in Germany".

[Velasco]

Consider that Ukraine is an unitarian state. You can interpretate that the minimal thing some pro-Russians were willing to accept is a decentralised and federal state and a status for southern and eastern oblasts similar to that of German länder. Perhaps that guy mentioned Bavaria because it's 'singular'.

It's interesting to read what Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who stated he's "carefully observing" the events, writes in The Guardian ("It's not Russia that is destabilising Ukraine") regarding to this question:

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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/07/sergei-lavrov-russia-stabilise-ukraine-west

You don't have to believe Lavrov when he says Russia is promoting Ukraine's stabilisation. Anyway he's drawing some red lines. He assures they "are not imposing anything on anyone", but warns: "we just see that if it is not done, Ukraine will continue to spiral into crisis with unpredictable consequences." Extract your own conclusion.

[Velasco]

Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?

Putin may not behind this. 

Those actions were simultaneous and coordinated; it's reasonable to put the blame on Putin, although that's not yet proven. What is Putin looking for? Annexation of the East or taking advantage of the Ukrainian chaos before the presidential election to implement his minimum 'programme' for the country? I hope Putin is not planning an incursion and just playing strong in order to put pressure on Kiev government in order to achieve: federalisation of Ukraine; equal status for Russian language; and a neutrality status, consecrated via constitutional reform, to avoid that Ukraine joins NATO. If Putin decides to intervene, consequences can be terrible both for Russia and Europe, needless to say.

Support for integration with Russia is by no means as strong in the East as it was in Crimea. Apparently, pro-Russian people protesting around the government building in Donetsk don't have common goals. Although all protesters ask for the help of Russia and reclaim a referendum on the status of the oblast, some want to join the 'Mother Russia' and others want to stay in a federalised Ukraine. In Kharkiv, PoR candidate Mikhail Dobkin stated that city is an inseparable part of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, two deputies from the far-right Svoboda seized communist leader Petro Symonenko in the parliament, after the latter accused nationalists of "playing into Russia's hands".

http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/apr/08/ukrainian-mps-brawl-parliament-video

[Velasco]

The interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk made a flying visit to the eastern oblasts, in a failed attempt to break the deadlock. He met some officials in Donetsk and made promises of devolution, preserving the status of Russian as second language and constitutional reforms before the elections. The Ukrainian authorities mark a red line between decentralisation and federalism, which they consider tantamount to separatism. In that meeting Rimat Akhmetov, the wealthiest man in Ukraine, urged Yatsenyuk to negotiate with the people that occupies the Donetsk governmental building. The oligarch made a passionate allegation about the hard situation of the eastern regions ("people wants that Donbass' voice is listened" and "respect") and said negotiation is the only right way. Yatsenyuk didn't met with the pro-Russian protesters. The interim PM said in TV that, in his opinion, Ukraine will need two years to overcome the crisis.

On a side note, seven people were killed in an explosion in the Skochinsky coal mine, near Donetsk:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/11/uk-ukraine-crisis-mine-idUKBREA3A0HC20140411

[Velasco]

Did anyone notice that Ukrainan government forces seized back an airport and gathered some tanks outside one of the towns controlled by pro-Russian groups?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/ukraine-armed-conflict-east

Vladimr Putin warned Merkel that Ukraine might be on the edge of a civil war. Hardly veiled threat.

[Velasco]

Those are Ukrainian tanks who have switched sides and are now supporting the separatists (and are hence flying the Russian flag).

Yes. The Guardian reports that pro-Russian separatists seized 5 armoured personnel carriers in Kromatorsk (Ukrainian forces seized the town's airport yesterday), which were driven to Slavyansk.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/16/pro-russian-separatists-seize-ukrainian-armoured-vehicles

According to a council's spokeswoman quoted by El País, at least 20 pro-Russian activists have seized the Donetsk Town Hall.

In response to the situation in Ukraine, BILD newspaper has initiated a petition for the removal of the Russian tanks in front of the Soviet War Memorial in Berlin-Tiergarten.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_War_Memorial_%28Tiergarten%29

That'll teach 'em a lesson!!

After reading this, Putin is trembling alone in a room inside the Kremlin.

[Velasco]

It's hard to know what's really happening in Eastern Ukraine. Anyway, in this site you can find good articles:

http://theconversation.com/ukraine-clashes-raise-stakes-in-struggle-to-control-the-donbas-25772

[Velasco]

While I don't want to see Ukraine dismembered and I certainly don't like Putin, I just hope to see this place free of nationalistic propaganda.

[Velasco]

Nobody has considered seriously amongst European governments that Ukraine was going to be admitted in the EU anytime soon. I think Poroshenko has stated his country is not yet ready and, on the other hand, joining NATO is too divisive and can "ruin the country".

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/198839.html

On the other hand, a certain degree of decentralisation plus reverting the measures on Russian language taken by the interim government look reasonable. However, Putin might want to create a Republika SPRSKA in Eastern Ukraine and that would be certainly unacceptable.

[Velasco]

There's at least one problem with that thesis, and is that there's a majority of 'ethnic' Russians in Crimea -not to mention Sevastopol-. Anyway, who knows what will happen in the next decades? One thing is sure and is that Putin is uglifying this world, and it was ugly enough before this crisis. Did anyone read his speech on 'Novaya Rossiya'?

As for Crimean Tatars, I feel concern on them. Did the interim government help them declaring traitors those who accepted Russian passports knowing that they are under pressure?

[Velasco]

I see a problem and is that Dzhemilev is in Kiev, as you say, while the Tatars are currently under Russian de facto authorities. Aside this ethnic minority, there was people opposed to Crimea's annexation or at least not very favourable, but they have to live there and they need Russian passports. Also, from what I've been reading, many have family in Ukraine and, on having been declared 'traitors', they are banned from Ukraine's mainland. I think this is the kind of measures, alongside with the suppression of the status of Russian language in the SE and maybe others, that alienate a significant part of the population and, honestly, everybody should be interested in stabilizing the country. I'll never understand why nobody advises the interim government that some coalition partners should be expelled. Also, there is the question of the power vacuum created in the SE after the removal of Yanukovich. The PoR seems to be disintegrating and, like it or not, that corrupt and feudal structure (I don't have a great opinion of the other parties, but that's another question) was the one who was giving some political cohesion to those regions. Putin is obviously taking advantage of the situation. I suppose the only option is trying to reach a compromise with PoR 'moderates' (whatever that means in this context) and magnates like Akhmetov. It looks like hard to achieve with ultranationalists enjoying prominence.

[Velasco]

As for the situation in the East, I do not know where to begin. The local magnates have been appointed governors with full powers (that is who the governors in the East are today). The central government itself is overwhelmingly Eastern - very few of its members have any ties with the West (many more are from Russia, than from Lviv). The only radical nationalist party in the government is Svoboda - and it has been kept away from the important posts. All the major leaders are moderates. Not that it much matters: they will not be in government within a month, after an election. In which almost all candidates (all with any chance of mattering) are Eastern or Southern. I do not know where you get your info - but it is bizarre.

Don't get me wrong, I didn't mean that the whole government is ultranationalist and I know that the likely winner in the next election was born in the Odessa region. However, I think that having Svoboda in the coalition has damaged the interim government. On the one hand, it gives some justification for one of the Putin's favourite strawmen (the government is "fascist"); on the other hand, it contributes to spread unrest in the SE, where many people consider the government "illegitimate". It will be good news if Svoboda is expelled after the elections and luckily radical candidates have little traction in the polls. Anyway the damage is done, specially when they have led lamentable actions like that aggression to the Ukraine's TV boss. These things have more relevancy than the portfolios they keep in the government. I don't unerstand why they remain.

As for the East, Taruta looked confident in this interview 4 days ago:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/25/billionaire-ukraine-troubled-region-serhiy-taruta

However, in the light of last events it's clear that the government has lost control and I think it's important to know what's happening with the remainders of the PoR. Reports look confusing and they seem to be ambivalent and divided:

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http://theconversation.com/ukrainian-troops-fight-to-fill-easts-dangerous-power-vacuum-25457

Later, that article describes the divisions inside the Party of Regions in Donetsk.

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In other article Nikolai Lechenko, the PoR leader in Donetsk, states the population in the East thinks that the government is "illegitimate" and seized power in a "coup d'état" (that argument isn't new) but they are "ready to recognize the very demon", in order to avoid a bloodshed and civil war because "it's very important today to contain the radical state of mind in the southeast of the country ". In the same article that I'll link below is quoted some local analyst depicting the current state of PoR as "a person who had been ruined at the same time as the doctor diagnoses a critical illness and his couple leaves him, but even this way it's necessary as expression of the southeast of Ukraine". I don't know if you may think it's bizarre, but the lack of articulation of those who are not separatists but seek for autonomy seems worrying.

 http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/04/26/actualidad/1398537205_471010.html

On the other hand, I might be wrong or my memory failed me in what regards 'traitors' or people banned from Ukraine. In any case, I'm lacking the time. I'll give for good what you said in the previous post and apologise if you felt offended in any way.

[Velasco]

PoR does not exist at this point as a unit. It has broken into multiple pieces, its most popular politicians (even in the East) have been expelled. Whom are you suggesting the government should incorporate? And why would they want to be incorporated into a government that will not be a government within a month. I am afraid, your "suggestions" cannot be even formulated in a way that anybody in Ukraine would be able to understand. Who should be incorporated into what?

I don't recall any 'suggestion' apart from expelling Svoboda or a previous comment about reaching some compromise with politicians or personalities from the region. I don't know if the government can incorporate some elements from the PoR or others expelled from that party. If it's possible, perhaps it would be a better solution trying some form of 'national unity'. Is it unrealistic? On the other hand, I'm getting the impression that someone or something has to fill the void in Donetsk and the other places.

Apparently, Khodorkovski was in Kharkiv before the attempt against the mayor because he's promoting a 'Russia-Ukraine' forum. He says he expect that Ukraine will succeed because it would be helpful for the democratization of Russia. It seems that the local Euro Maidan group has been meeting with Anti Maidan activists. The spokeswoman of the Kharkiv Euro Maidan says that it's necessary taking into account and respecting the interests of Russian speakers in order to keep the unity of Ukraine. I wish them luck, what else could I say?   

[Velasco]

We know that Depardieu is a connaisseur. FTR, I watched Novecento (1900, by Bernardo Bertolucci) in TV on past Sunday. Depardieu is an Italian communist peasant in that movie and I couldn't help but thinking on that special friendship between the French actor and Putin. I don't know why I made such association.

[Velasco]

Even Russians seem to now know that Russia attacked the Ukraine.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28965597

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There is a well known Novaya Gazeta in Moscow, a liberal opposition paper where Anna Politkovskaya wrote her reports on the Second Chechen War (btw, this conflict appears to be another 'dirty war'). Is there a homonymous paper in Kiev?  Any relation with the one in Moscow?

From Russia's Novaya Gazeta:

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http://en.novayagazeta.ru/