PISA 2012 Results
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Author Topic: PISA 2012 Results  (Read 1973 times)
jaichind
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« on: December 03, 2013, 05:28:50 PM »

See

http://www.oecd.org/pisa/keyfindings/pisa-2012-results-overview.pdf

I always find these reports very interesting.  Things I got out of this report.

1) I am very impressed with Vietnam's performance.  Given its level of economic development its scores are above OECD average and very impressive.  Of course there is a survive bias here.  This test only applies to kids that attend high school and not all kids in Vietnam attends high school so these results might be inflated when compared to advanced economies.
2) Seems like Finland which was the icon of education excellence is falling behind.
3) Looking at regions of Italy is interesting and not surprising.  Northern Italy pretty much at the top of European performance and Southern Italy at the bottom of European performance.  Italy is really a Germany (in the north) plus a Greece (in the South)
4) Looking at the impact on scores by kids that skip school tells about the value add the school adds.  In South Korea, the score falls 118 points for kids that skip school. It is 88 for Japan In Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, the drop is in the single digits.  This says South Korean and Japanese schools are very effective and the schools in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are ineffective.  Thailand is minus 93 which also says that Thai schools are very effective.
5) In terms of students being happy in school. South Korea is the lowest and Mexico among the highest.  So I guess South Korea schools are like a boot camp, effective but brutal.  Mexican schools are like Club Med, nothing gets done any everyone is happy.
6) What can we tell would be an all PRC performance.  PRC-Shanghai just like PISA 2009 is way up there.  But this is not necessary a good proxy for how PRC might perform on PISA as Shanghai social economic development is good deal above PRC average.  To be fair Shanghai is not the most accomplished academic region of PRC, places like ZheJiang and JiangSu Provinces repeatedly outperform Shanghai in the PRC college entrance example or GaoKao. Like 2009 a bunch of PRC provinces (ranging from below average income to above average income actually took part in PISA) but the results are not released.  My understanding is that in PISA 2015 all of PRC will participate.  It turned out that for 2009 PISA the 12 provinces that participated did have their results released.  Zhejiang Province for example had pretty much identical results as Shanghai in 2009.  The poor Provinces had results where OECD commented was about the same as OECD average.  If that is the case then an all PRC average would be around where Finland/Switzerland/Netherlands are.  We will find out as the PISA 2012 results for the various PRC provinces leaks out over time.  We will know for sure in PISA 2015.  Of course like Vietnam, but to a smaller degree, there will be a survive bias here too as in rural PRC there is not 100% attendance in High School unlike advance economies.
7) Latin America seems to do very poorly.  Most likely this is a result of a lower premium placed on education and Latin America is economically advanced enough to make sure pretty much all kids goes to High School but not advance enough to make sure that there are enough resources to making a good High School education system. 
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Cassius
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2013, 05:56:32 PM »

UK does poorly, as expected. Had an enjoyable Economics class this afternoon watching my rather left-wing economics teacher struggle to discredit this report.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2013, 07:32:14 PM »

It's not particularly hard to discredit it as it's patent bollocks.
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Zanas
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2013, 02:00:31 AM »

Quantitativism is at it again.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2013, 02:07:12 AM »

I've read a few examples in the newspaper today, like:

"A staircase is 2,52 meters high and has 14 steps. How high is each step ?"

How difficult is this really ?

Tongue
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2013, 06:12:57 AM »

I have to fight back against some of the leftist responses in this thread. The annual PISA report comprises of a thousand or two pages, with hundreds of tables and graphs - and it is the chattering classes' fault that they focus on the rankings, not the report's in principle.

Perhaps there are several methodological issues screwing up the results (and these affect math word problems more than you think). Maybe then we have to look at tiers of countries instead of well-ordered rankings, though I think it's still valuable to have the information.

A goal of PISA, I think, is to motivate countries to try methods in best performing countries. Of course people like Gove aren't interested in that - his only frame of reference is with the grammar schools. You can claim, by consequence, that his policies are the very opposite of what the report advocates.
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Zanas
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2013, 11:25:31 AM »

I don't know how the report is done exactly, because all the media is publishing is "France is 25th" or "Finland is 1st" or bullsh**t like this. It's this desire to quantify and classify everything by the media that's obnoxious. The report in itself probably has some worth, but it shouldn't be skrunk to just "said country is 14th", which doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
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Cassius
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2013, 01:26:45 PM »

Its obviously impossible to say with certainty that 'well x country is 15th' and so on, but I'm sure the rankings give a pretty good indication of the state of education in these countries. I mean, I think its pretty obvious that countries like the UK have a rather ineffective system of education.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2013, 01:27:15 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2013, 04:02:44 PM by jaichind »

I read all sorts of US based responses and I found all of them inadequate in different ways even as these responses contradict each other. The responses especially focused on the gap between USA scores and PRC-Shanghai just like when 2009 PISA results came out.  I am interested in this especially given that I am from the Greater China region.

Response: The sky is falling.  The gap between USA scores and future economic competitors especially Shanghai shows that USA is in decline.
My view:  This is not true.  USA clearly is the most advanced economy in the world and at the technological frontier of the world. These test results are really no different from a couple of generations ago and did not seem to hurt the USA economic standing.  Of course the PRC will continue to develop so the USA will be in relative decline.  But that is going to take place regardless of what these scores are.

Response: These scores does not prove anything.  The PRC-Shanghai high scores show the problem with an educational system based on rote learning and lacking in creativity.  If the PRC does not reform its educational system away from this then they will be stuck in a middle income trap.
My view: Since I was also experienced being on the Taiwan Province ROC educational system, I would be the first the criticize the the orientalist educational system that exists in South Korea, Japan, PRC, and ROC.  That said, this response does not take into account that its correct critique of the PRC educational system is equally valid for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan Province ROC.  But this very flawed educational system did not stop these three from becoming advanced economies.  They are behind the USA for sure but the economic accomplishments are quite impressive and their educational system did not stop such progress.  Yes, these high PRC-Shanghai scores does not prove PRC will overtake USA but it does not mean it cannot become a relatively advanced economy even its educational system does not change.

Response: PRC-Shanghai is an elite region of the PRC so its scores are not Representative of the PRC as a whole.
My view: Well this is obviously true.  If PRC as a whole had scores same as PRC-Shanghai then the PRC would be an educational testing hyperpower which not true.  But we cannot take this correct statement to infer an all PRC score would be much much lower than PRC-Shanghai.  As I pointed out for PISA 2009 12 PRC provinces were tested and then the results came out after the initial results were released.  The 12 provinces from a population weight point of view is very Representative of the PRC as a whole and the results came out to be around where Netherlands and Switzerland was and indeed a good deal above USA.  I expect 2012 to be no different. So the net result is even if PRC-Shanghai is not represent PRC as a whole an estimated result for PRC is well above USA and quite impressive given its lower level of social-economic development.

This brings me to my view on the USA results.  All responses I read to the PISA 2012 results all had the view that the USA results are not good. I claim the USA results are actually very good.  One just has to look at it the right way to realize it.  The way to look at it is to break down the USA results by ethnic group.  The average USA score by ethnic group are:

White:     518
Black:      434
Asian:      548
Hispanic:  465

Note the USA White score pretty much beats most European countries, is about the same as Canada, and only slightly behind Finland, Switzerland, Netherlands, and the implied PRC score.  So right off the bat the USA White score is really not too far from an implied all PRC score.

The USA Asian score is ahead of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan Province ROC and mostly at par with Hong Kong and Singapore.

The USA Hispanic score is way ahead of all Latin American scores and about the same as Israel and Greece.

The USA Black score are ahead of all Latin American scores, ahead of Thailand and Malaysia and only slightly behind Bulgaria and for sure ahead of any African or Caribbean country had they participated.  

On this basis I claim the USA score is actually very impressive and mostly a function of the advanced social-economic development of USA and the amount of resources USA puts into educations.

The chart below are 2009 Reading PISA scores making the same point I am making above.  

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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2013, 03:22:49 PM »

I find the racially deterministic rationale of the analysis in the post above highly troubling to say the least..
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2013, 04:40:01 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2013, 04:42:23 PM by jaichind »

I noticed how low Israel is in the rankings which is around Greece and Turkey.  This confused me based on what I thought I knew.  Then I saw this

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000898881

The PISA exam shows substantial gaps between Hebrew and Arabic-speaking pupils. In the math exam, Hebrew speakers achieved a score of 489 points, while Arabic speakers achieved a score of 388 points. Arabic speakers scored 98 points less than Hebrew speakers in the science exam.

If we just take Hebrew speakers then they are around the same as Norway.  Of course even then not all Hebrew speakers are Ashkenazi Jews, say, versus Sephardi Jews.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2013, 05:10:29 AM »

I don't know how the report is done exactly, because all the media is publishing is "France is 25th" or "Finland is 1st" or bullsh**t like this. It's this desire to quantify and classify everything by the media that's obnoxious. The report in itself probably has some worth, but it shouldn't be skrunk to just "said country is 14th", which doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

That makes more sense, I suppose. But I've seen reports in the Monde and Libération that focuses more on the system's inequalities, a move that makes them better than any North American publication.


This brings me to my view on the USA results.  All responses I read to the PISA 2012 results all had the view that the USA results are not good. I claim the USA results are actually very good.  One just has to look at it the right way to realize it.  The way to look at it is to break down the USA results by ethnic group [...]

Considering the correlation between race and socioeconomic status in the U.S., I don't see how this analysis holds.
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Zanas
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« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2013, 05:33:31 AM »

I'm not sure if jaichind is aware of the fact that all the racial or ethnic discrepancies he exposes are a result of economic factors - aka class struggle - and not in any sense determined by the actual race or ethnicity. If he is, I would like him to state it a bit more in his post. If he isn't, well, HPx100.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2013, 01:47:14 PM »

Considering the correlation between race and socioeconomic status in the U.S., I don't see how this analysis holds.

Yes, they are correlated for sure and yes there is for sure a correlation between income/social-economic status and test scores.  But that is not the whole story. See this chart (a bit old but makes a point that has not really changed that much.)



Note that Black scores for family incomes above 100K is about the same as White scores with family income of around 20K-25K.  There are other factors such as culture and education value as a premium and perhaps even others.
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2013, 03:12:15 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2013, 03:16:20 PM by jaichind »

Looking at all regions that did PISA in 2009 and 2012 shows that the Scandinavian countries  as well as Australia/New Aealand fell back a lot while those in East Asia surged.  Poland went way up.

Region   2009   2012   Diff
Shanghai   577   587   10
Singap   543   556   13
Hong K   546   554   8
S Korea   541   542   1
Japan   529   540   11
Taiwan   519   535   16
Finland   544   529   -15
Estonia   514   526   12
Liechten   518   525   7
Macao   508   523   15
Canada   527   522   -5
Poland   499   521   22
Neth.   519   519   0
Switzer   517   518   1
Ireland   497   516   19
Germany   510   515   5
Aust   519   512   -7
Belgium   509   510   1
NZ   524   509   -15
UK   500   502   2
France   497   500   3
Austria   487   500   13
Solvenia   495   499   4
Denmark   499   498   -1
Norway   500   496   -4
Latvia   487   494   7
USA   496   492   -4
Lux   487   490   3
Italy   486   490   4
Spain   484   490   6
Portugal   490   488   -2
Hungary   496   487   -9
Iceland   501   484   -17
Lithuania   479   484   5
Sweden   495   482   -13
Croatia   474   482   8
Russia   468   481   13
Irsael   459   474   15
Slovak   488   472   -16
Greece   473   466   -7
Turkey   454   462   8
Serbia   442   447   5
UAE   430   441   11
Bulgaria   432   440   8
Romania   426   440   14
Thailand   422   437   15
Chile   439   436   -3
Costa R   427   426   -1
Mexico   420   417   -3
Kazak   398   416   18
Monteng   404   414   10
Malaysia   413   413   0
Uruguay   427   412   -15
Brazil   401   402   1
Jordan   402   398   -4
Argentina   396   397   1
Tunsia   392   397   5
Albania   384   395   11
Colombia   399   393   -6
Indonesia   385   384   -1
Qatar   373   383   10
Peru   368   375   7
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Hnv1
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2013, 08:23:59 PM »

I noticed how low Israel is in the rankings which is around Greece and Turkey.  This confused me based on what I thought I knew.  Then I saw this

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000898881

The PISA exam shows substantial gaps between Hebrew and Arabic-speaking pupils. In the math exam, Hebrew speakers achieved a score of 489 points, while Arabic speakers achieved a score of 388 points. Arabic speakers scored 98 points less than Hebrew speakers in the science exam.

If we just take Hebrew speakers then they are around the same as Norway.  Of course even then not all Hebrew speakers are Ashkenazi Jews, say, versus Sephardi Jews.

Yes you have 3 different educational echelons (I disregard the orthodox autonomous system here): -Arabic public education, most of their high school are horrible but you have a designated few who outperform most Jewish high schools  (where the rich Arabs send their kids). - Public education in poor Jewish\Sephardi areas, sub par and declining rapidly. - Public education where rich\Askenaz Jews live in with better faculty and infrastructure.

The tilt is astonishing especially in the Israeli SATs. My old high school's (semi-private and posh) average was 100 points higher than the national average and around 200 points higher than poor area\arabic average (the score scale is between 200-800). A good grade is considered in the range of 700-800 where statistically 5% of the grades fall, at my school around 25%+ got 700+.

I blame both our outdated form of secondary school educations and the low wages teachers get which prevent any quality individuals landing at job. This entire issue becomes more staggering when you see tests from the 60s and 70s where we usually ranked in the top 5.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2013, 08:36:07 PM »

I find the racially deterministic rationale of the analysis in the post above highly troubling to say the least..

Ah, I see you've met Jaichind. He has form here.
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