Which candidate is a better fit for Virginia?

[JRP1994]

In other words: Does Hillary over-perform Obama in Virginia relative to the national margin, or under-perform him?

[Flake]

Easily Clinton.

[JRP1994]

Easily Clinton.

For what reasons?

[ElectionsGuy]

Obama as he does better in NOVA (government) and blacks. Clinton could possibly do better in SW Virginia though, but I guess Northam proved that wrong.

[Kevin]

Obama as he does better in NOVA (government) and blacks. Clinton could possibly do better in SW Virginia though, but I guess Northam proved that wrong.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Obama as he does better in NOVA (government) and blacks. Clinton could possibly do better in SW Virginia though, but I guess Northam proved that wrong.

Northam?

[IceSpear]

I'm gonna say about even. Hillary will do slightly worse in NoVa and will probably have a bit of a turnoff drop with blacks, but she'll make up for it by not getting blown out as badly in the rural areas.

[opebo]

Obama probably slightly better, but the state will have drifted so much further left since 2012 that the result will be about the same.

[H. Ross Peron]

Hillary still wins the NoVA soccer mom and black vote overwhelmingly along with gaining back at least a portion of the white working-class rural vote. 

[Horus]

This is a tough one, but I'd say Obama as NoVA is still growing. The areas Clinton would outperform Obama in are shrinking.

[Cryptic]

Obama probably slightly better, but the state will have drifted so much further left since 2012 that the result will be about the same.

[ElectionsGuy]

Obama as he does better in NOVA (government) and blacks. Clinton could possibly do better in SW Virginia though, but I guess Northam proved that wrong.

Northam?

The democratic candidate for Lt. Governor. He was a fiscally conservative liberal. This area of Virginia had a history of voting for conservative white democrats. And if anyone of the 2013 ballot could prove that democrat coal country still existed, it would be this guy. But he didn't do squat, instead E.W. Jackson (the republican opponent) got >70% in most SW Virginia counties, which looks exactly the same as the 2012 presidential result.

[RosettaStoned]

 Clinton, because in 2016, Virginia will be even more Democratic.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama, easily.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Obama as he does better in NOVA (government) and blacks. Clinton could possibly do better in SW Virginia though, but I guess Northam proved that wrong.

Northam?

The democratic candidate for Attorney General. He was a fiscally conservative liberal. This area of Virginia had a history of voting for conservative white democrats. And if anyone of the 2013 ballot could prove that democrat coal country still existed, it would be this guy. But he didn't do squat, instead Obenshain (the republican opponent) got >70% in most SW Virginia counties, which looks exactly the same as the 2012 presidential result.

Actually Northam ran for Lieutenant Governor, which makes this even more remarkable as his opponent was E.W. Jackson, who lost statewide by almost 11%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Obama as he does better in NOVA (government) and blacks. Clinton could possibly do better in SW Virginia though, but I guess Northam proved that wrong.

Northam?

The democratic candidate for Attorney General. He was a fiscally conservative liberal. This area of Virginia had a history of voting for conservative white democrats. And if anyone of the 2013 ballot could prove that democrat coal country still existed, it would be this guy. But he didn't do squat, instead Obenshain (the republican opponent) got >70% in most SW Virginia counties, which looks exactly the same as the 2012 presidential result.

Actually Northam ran for Lieutenant Governor, which makes this even more remarkable as his opponent was E.W. Jackson, who lost statewide by almost 11%.

Oh, whoops. Fixed my post. I don't know why I keep getting these races mixed up.

[Nichlemn]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

Seeing as VA trended a crushing 1% towards Democrats in 2012, it really doesn't look like it's moving D all that fast. A Republican could easily win it in a close election.

[Non Swing Voter]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

Seeing as VA trended a crushing 1% towards Democrats in 2012, it really doesn't look like it's moving D all that fast. A Republican could easily win it in a close election.

Keep telling yourself that.  That's why McAuliffe, a deeply flawed man won in an off year election... because all the right wing talking points and papers wrote him off a year in advance...

maybe that's why every single statewide office is now about to be in Democratic control too...  Governor, Lt. Gov., Attorney General, two US senators, went for Obama twice... hey no big deal, it's not moving D all that fast.

Republicans have never really valued logic, facts, or logical thinking, have they?

[Nichlemn]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

Seeing as VA trended a crushing 1% towards Democrats in 2012, it really doesn't look like it's moving D all that fast. A Republican could easily win it in a close election.

Keep telling yourself that.  That's why McAuliffe, a deeply flawed man won in an off year election... because all the right wing talking points and papers wrote him off a year in advance...

maybe that's why every single statewide office is now about to be in Democratic control too...  Governor, Lt. Gov., Attorney General, two US senators, went for Obama twice... hey no big deal, it's not moving D all that fast.

Republicans have never really valued logic, facts, or logical thinking, have they?

I suppose you interpreted the 2009 results as evidence that Virginia was moving rapidly Republican? Also, it's disingenuous to focus only on McAuliffe's flaws, and not the even more deeply flawed Cuccinelli (as well as Jackson in the LG race).

My argument is pretty simple. If Virginia is really moving so rapidly Democratic that a Republican could only win "in a landslide", it will need to trend many points more Democratic in 2016, despite the fact you admit that Obama was a better fit for VA than Clinton will be. But it barely trended D in 2012, so what reason is there to believe it will trend substantially more D next time? Was VA due to trend many points D in 2012, but some unprecedented one-off factor substantially curtailed it?

[MATTROSE94]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

[TDAS04]

Obama.  Obama crushed Clinton in the 2008 primary because of blacks and yuppie liberals in NoVa.

Hillary could outperform her national average in the state in 2016, but that would be due to Virginia's continued leftward trend, the presence of Warner on the ticket, and/or her outperformance of Obama in the southwestern part of the state (combined with holding fairly large majorities in NoVa and among blacks). 

Had Hillary been the nominee in 2008, I don't think that she would have done as well as Obama in Virginia during the general election. 

[Skill and Chance]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

Seeing as VA trended a crushing 1% towards Democrats in 2012, it really doesn't look like it's moving D all that fast. A Republican could easily win it in a close election.

Keep telling yourself that.  That's why McAuliffe, a deeply flawed man won in an off year election... because all the right wing talking points and papers wrote him off a year in advance...

maybe that's why every single statewide office is now about to be in Democratic control too...  Governor, Lt. Gov., Attorney General, two US senators, went for Obama twice... hey no big deal, it's not moving D all that fast.

Republicans have never really valued logic, facts, or logical thinking, have they?

I suppose you interpreted the 2009 results as evidence that Virginia was moving rapidly Republican? Also, it's disingenuous to focus only on McAuliffe's flaws, and not the even more deeply flawed Cuccinelli (as well as Jackson in the LG race).

My argument is pretty simple. If Virginia is really moving so rapidly Democratic that a Republican could only win "in a landslide", it will need to trend many points more Democratic in 2016, despite the fact you admit that Obama was a better fit for VA than Clinton will be. But it barely trended D in 2012, so what reason is there to believe it will trend substantially more D next time? Was VA due to trend many points D in 2012, but some unprecedented one-off factor substantially curtailed it?

Thing is, the default for VA-Gov since the 1970's has been about a 10 point win for the party out of the White House.  Democrats even managed to pick it up by 5% in Nov 2001 when Bush had near unanimous approval.  A Gubernatorial win for the presidential party in VA suggests something is changing that goes beyond Obama.

[Nichlemn]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

Seeing as VA trended a crushing 1% towards Democrats in 2012, it really doesn't look like it's moving D all that fast. A Republican could easily win it in a close election.

Keep telling yourself that.  That's why McAuliffe, a deeply flawed man won in an off year election... because all the right wing talking points and papers wrote him off a year in advance...

maybe that's why every single statewide office is now about to be in Democratic control too...  Governor, Lt. Gov., Attorney General, two US senators, went for Obama twice... hey no big deal, it's not moving D all that fast.

Republicans have never really valued logic, facts, or logical thinking, have they?

I suppose you interpreted the 2009 results as evidence that Virginia was moving rapidly Republican? Also, it's disingenuous to focus only on McAuliffe's flaws, and not the even more deeply flawed Cuccinelli (as well as Jackson in the LG race).

My argument is pretty simple. If Virginia is really moving so rapidly Democratic that a Republican could only win "in a landslide", it will need to trend many points more Democratic in 2016, despite the fact you admit that Obama was a better fit for VA than Clinton will be. But it barely trended D in 2012, so what reason is there to believe it will trend substantially more D next time? Was VA due to trend many points D in 2012, but some unprecedented one-off factor substantially curtailed it?

Thing is, the default for VA-Gov since the 1970's has been about a 10 point win for the party out of the White House.  Democrats even managed to pick it up by 5% in Nov 2001 when Bush had near unanimous approval.  A Gubernatorial win for the presidential party in VA suggests something is changing that goes beyond Obama.

More likely it suggests that the pattern was spurious, like the "rule" that the House doesn't flip without the Senate that was substantially broken in 2010.

[Nichlemn]

Clinton is a better fit for Virginia from 1980-2010ish.  Obama is a better fit for Virginia from 2010ish-on.

Both would easily win Virginia in 2016 barring some kind of national landslide in favor of Republicans though.

Seeing as VA trended a crushing 1% towards Democrats in 2012, it really doesn't look like it's moving D all that fast. A Republican could easily win it in a close election.

Keep telling yourself that.  That's why McAuliffe, a deeply flawed man won in an off year election... because all the right wing talking points and papers wrote him off a year in advance...

maybe that's why every single statewide office is now about to be in Democratic control too...  Governor, Lt. Gov., Attorney General, two US senators, went for Obama twice... hey no big deal, it's not moving D all that fast.

Republicans have never really valued logic, facts, or logical thinking, have they?

I suppose you interpreted the 2009 results as evidence that Virginia was moving rapidly Republican? Also, it's disingenuous to focus only on McAuliffe's flaws, and not the even more deeply flawed Cuccinelli (as well as Jackson in the LG race).

My argument is pretty simple. If Virginia is really moving so rapidly Democratic that a Republican could only win "in a landslide", it will need to trend many points more Democratic in 2016, despite the fact you admit that Obama was a better fit for VA than Clinton will be. But it barely trended D in 2012, so what reason is there to believe it will trend substantially more D next time? Was VA due to trend many points D in 2012, but some unprecedented one-off factor substantially curtailed it?

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And you're the one claiming a lot of predictive value for the Presidential election from gubernatorial elections

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I presume you're making a claim about off-year elections being much more Republican-friendly, but there hasn't actually been much of a consistent pattern to this. For each 2010 you have a 2006.

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No, I'm the one focusing on the most relevant apples to apples races we have: the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections. If VA really was trending Dem at a remarkable pace, we should seen a bigger trend there, probably a swing to Obama in 2012. But we didn't. Why not?  

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Oh please, get back to me when banning oral sex is in the Republican Platform.