Alberta w/provincial Reform in '93

[RogueBeaver]

In the late '80s there was speculation that Reform would found a provincial wing, perhaps led by Grey or Harper. It never came to fruition till Wildrose, but at the time the PCs were very panicky about such a scenario given their own record and wide-open right flank (Getty famously said "I was fighting for Alberta when he [Harper] was learning to blow-dry his hair"). So let's say Reform goes provincial, led by Harper or Grey. Probably Harper. When the Tories boot Getty they choose wrong, picking closet Liberal Nancy MacBeth over Ralph Klein. What happens in the 1993-4 election? Decore or Harper winning? I'd say either is plausible, but more likely Harper since conservatives flock to his banner. PCs are nearly shut out, Liberals or NDP are official opposition. The PC right-wingers will join him and get some plum posts. Some prominent Reformers who left for the federal scene might stick around. Kenney and Poilievre to name a couple of later-prominent ones.

Thoughts?

[Njall]

That sounds likely, though the exact outcome would rest on variables such as reform nominating bigoted candidates.  I would say that reform would probably end up with a minority/bare majority, with the liberals as official opposition.  Decore's popularity in Edmonton and vote-splitting on the right would almost guarantee that, like in real life, the liberals would sweep Edmonton.  In the absence of Klein, they could probably get some more Calgary seats too.  The PC's would likely be reduced to a handful of strongholds in Calgary, and maybe some of the smaller cities.  Reform would get the rest.  Like the WRP, they would be strong in southern and central rural Alberta, and would put some seats in the north rural areas and suburban calgary into play.

[Smid]

What does Stockwell Day do?

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe you'd get a 2011 type scenario?

[RogueBeaver]

Smid: Day would be one of the right-wing Tories who'd join. Either he crosses the floor or gets defeated in '93, wins as a Reform candidate in '97?

Njall: Say 46 Reformers, 32 Grits, 5 PC? In '97 Harper consolidates the conservative vote, Liberals collapse with the NDP re-entry and PC shutout?

[DC Al Fine]

Was Klein considered that right wing when he won the leadership race. He had some Liberal leanings himself IIRC.

Personally, I think we'd wind up with a system similar to Ontario politics right now: Something like  35-35-20. In '93, the PC's won a strong majority on a smallish lead. They'd probably drop to 3rd on a relatively small drop in PV since Decore is a much more credible threat for the Liberals than Raj Sherman.

[Njall]

Njall: Say 46 Reformers, 32 Grits, 5 PC? In '97 Harper consolidates the conservative vote, Liberals collapse with the NDP re-entry and PC shutout?

Probably more like 40R-37L-6PC.  The Liberals got 32 seats in the real 1993 election, and I imagine that they'd get at least a few more because of vote splitting on the right.  My riding of Calgary-Glenmore, for example, was 48.6-43.1 for the PCs over the Liberals, so it would likely go Liberal in this scenario.  Depending on the ideological leanings of the PCs that would manage to be elected, I could see Reform getting a majority through floor-crossings partway through the legislative period.

In '97, I could see Reform picking up a few more seats and getting a majority.  The Liberals would lose some, though it wouldn't be as bad as real 1997 and I could see them keeping 25-30 seats.  If the PCs weren't out by this point, they'd be holding onto a few Calgary strongholds.  And depending on where the Liberals lose ground, the NDP could probably grab a couple Edmonton seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Njall: Say 46 Reformers, 32 Grits, 5 PC? In '97 Harper consolidates the conservative vote, Liberals collapse with the NDP re-entry and PC shutout?

Probably more like 40R-37L-6PC.  The Liberals got 32 seats in the real 1993 election, and I imagine that they'd get at least a few more because of vote splitting on the right.  My riding of Calgary-Glenmore, for example, was 48.6-43.1 for the PCs over the Liberals, so it would likely go Liberal in this scenario.  Depending on the ideological leanings of the PCs that would manage to be elected, I could see Reform getting a majority through floor-crossings partway through the legislative period.

Definitely. There were a lot of PC's at the time who were in the party because it was the most conservative electable party, not because they were in line with PC politics. Guys like that are gone the minute Reform becomes a force in provincial politics.