Counties where the largest community is more republican

[RedSLC]

Inspired by a conversation a had here when I was still a newbie:

It is known that, in most cases, the largest community in a county will be at least slightly more democratic than the county as a whole, due to the fact that it usually contains only an urban center, as opposed to rural territory and sometimes, suburbs.

However, this is not always the case: There are a few instances of counties where the largest community is actually more republican than the county as a whole.

Here are a few examples that I know of:
-Jackson County, OR: Obama narrowly won it in 2008, but its largest community, Medford, still voted for McCain. Obama won the county by swamping McCain in Ashland, a university town and the county's second largest city.

-Sandoval County, NM: Voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but largely because of Hispanic and Native American voters in the more rural parts of the county. The county's largest community is Rio Rancho, a suburb of Albuquerque, which appears to have voted for McCain by an extremely narrow margin in 2008, and is pretty much guaranteed to have voted for Romney in 2012.

-Lee County, FL: The county's largest community, Cape Coral is a point or two more republican than the county as a whole.

-Broward County, FL: Fort Lauderdale, the county's largest community, is slightly more republican than the county (although still pretty democratic).

-Oktibbeha County, MS: Obama won the county by just six votes in 2008, but, by the looks of DRA, lost Starkville by a very narrow margin, which was canceled out by black voters in the rural parts of the county.

-Greene County, PA: Only went for McCain by a point in 2008, but the largest community, Waynesburg, gave McCain around 57 percent of the vote. This is mainly because all of the democratic areas of the county are the communities on the county's eastern edge, along the Monongahela river.

-Baltimore County, MD: A heavily subdivided suburban county. While the county itself voted for Obama, the largest suburb, Dundalk, voted for McCain, and is within one of the more republican parts of this large county.

-San Juan County, UT: While the county itself was limited to the >50% range, it's entirely because of the Navajo reservation in the southern part of the county. The county's largest community is Blanding, a heavily white, heavily Mormon town that went around 80 percent for McCain in 2008. In fact, on DRA, it can be seen that if the four precincts containing part of Blanding were removed, Obama would have carried the county in 2008.

Those are the ones I can think of. Are there any others that people know about?

[Sol]

I think this is true of Jefferson County* LA as well. Metairie is wealthy southern NOLA suburbia, while other parts of the county have more minorities.




*Prefer to call county equivalents counties.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Steele County MN comes to mind.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They don't have counties, but considering how well Obama did in rural Alaska, I'd imagine there.

[traininthedistance]

There are quite a few in New Jersey, some just by a point or two, some by a rather wide margin.  This is especially true in Central and South Jersey where the largest municipalities are often suburbs with lots of area that were developed more recently than smaller, more-Democratic cities.

Middlesex:  Largest town is Edison, which was 58.8% Obama in 2008, compared to 60.2% for the county as a whole.

Monmouth:  Largest town is Middleton, which was 56.9% McCain, compared to 51.2% McCain for the county.

Ocean:  Largest town is Lakewood, which was 69.1% McCain (!), compared to 58.4% McCain for the county.  The high McCain percentage here can be explained by a large Orthodox Jewish population.

Mercer: Largest town is Hamilton, which was 53.5% Obama, compared to 67.3% Obama in the county.  I think Hamilton might be the most Republican town in the county, actually, though perhaps Robbinsville is more Pub.

Burlington: Largest town is Evesham, I don't immediately see their Obama-in-2008 percentage but I do remember it's close to 50-50, far lower than Burlington's overall 58.6%.

Gloucester: Largest town is Washington, Obama was 49.6% while the county was 55.2%.

Atlantic: Egg Harbor Township is the largest, don't immediately see numbers but it has to be less than the county's 56.9% Obama.

Hunterdon: Readington is largest, it was 61.1% McCain, county was 55.8% McCain.

Salem: Pennsville is largest, it was 48.7% McCain, county was 50.4% Obama.  With the possible exception of Atlantic, where I can't recall how Egg Harbor voted, this looks like the only one where the largest town was McCain but the county was Obama.

That's nine counties out of 21.  Almost half!

[ottermax]

Military towns are another likely option.

Honolulu comes to mind.

[Miles]

I think this is true of Jefferson County* LA as well. Metairie is wealthy southern NOLA suburbia, while other parts of the county have more minorities.




*Prefer to call county equivalents counties.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Isn't there some county in Georgia where the largest city is a lily-white suburb and the rest of the county is pretty black?

[Sol]

I think this is true of Jefferson County* LA as well. Metairie is wealthy southern NOLA suburbia, while other parts of the county have more minorities.




*Prefer to call county equivalents counties.

lol

But seriously though, I'd prefer for some uniformity to exist between roughly equivalent gov't units.

[Kevinstat]

Piscataquis County, ME was such a county from at least 1980 through 2000 for Presidential elections, assuming Dover-Foxcroft, the county seat and currently the largest town in the county by a fair amount (4,213 compared to 2,340 for 2nd place Milo as of and according to the 2010 census), was the largest municipality in the county that entire time.  Bill Clinton finished third in Dover-Foxcroft in 1992, while Bush finished third in Piscataquis County as a whole (and in Maine as a whole).  Ross Perot carried both the town and the county that year.  Reagan won Dover-Foxcroft by 40.04% in 1984 while winning Piscataquis County by "only" 28.42%.  And Bush 41's margin in 1988 was almost 10 points greater in Dover-Foxcroft than in the whole county (27.77% vs. 17.83%).  Bill Clinton carried Piscataquis County by 17.13% in 1996 while winning Dover-Foxcroft by only 11.37%.  In 2008, however (2004 had only an 0.33% difference in Bush 43's margin over John Kerry, with the county being more Republican), John McCain won Piscataquis County by 3.76% (the only county he carried in New England, as I'm sure many here are aware) but only won Dover-Foxcroft by 0.68%, and getting only 49.32% of the vote there while getting 50.72% in the county.  Dover-Foxcroft caught up a bit in terms of Republican-ness in 2012, giving Mitt Romney 50.19% of the vote and a 3.18% margin while the Republican margin in Piscataquis County only increased to 4.25% and the Republican nominee's share of the county vote actually dropped to 50.59%.

[Miles]

But seriously though, I'd prefer for some uniformity to exist between roughly equivalent gov't units.

I don't tell people that I'm from Orleans County. I didn't even know what a county was until I moved to NC.

Anywho, they're parishes and should be referred to accordingly; thats one of my biggest pet peeves.

[H. Ross Peron]

Bronx County, NY if you count "community" as NYC as a whole.

[RedSLC]

I think this is true of Jefferson County* LA as well. Metairie is wealthy southern NOLA suburbia, while other parts of the county have more minorities.

Confirmed via DRA. Jefferson Parish as a whole gave McCain 62 percent of the vote in 2008, but Metairie gave McCain 76 percent. Indeed, nearly all of the more minority-heavy areas are farther south.

Steele County MN comes to mind.

Not quite. Owatonna did vote for McCain in 2008, but by a slightly smaller margin than the county, with Obama doing slightly better and McCain doing slightly worse. Don't know about 2012, though.

[RedSLC]

Isn't there some county in Georgia where the largest city is a lily-white suburb and the rest of the county is pretty black?

Fayette County, a suburban county directly south of Atlanta. The largest city, Peachtree City, has a greater share of white voters than the rest of the county (81% white VAP, vs. 65.5% white VAP for the parts outside). Fayette county, was 64.8% McCain in 2008, while Peachtree City was 67.3% McCain.

[Sol]

This is true for Campbell County, KY at least in 2008 (and maybe in 2012 too)

[RedSLC]

Found another one: Elk County, Pennsylvania.

While the county was 51 percent Obama in 2008, the largest community, St. Marys, voted for McCain. This is at least partly because the city proper absorbed its township, Benzinger, meaning that it includes a lot of heavily republican rural territory.

[Seattle]

Island County, WA.

Oak Harbor is the largest city, which holds a naval base. I believe it voted for McCain, but either way, it's much more Republican than the rest of the county that went for Obama twice.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Island County, WA.

Oak Harbor is the largest city, which holds a naval base. I believe it voted for McCain, but either way, it's much more Republican than the rest of the county that went for Obama twice.

Yes, Oak Harbor was like 57-42 McCain, while everything south of it was heavily Democratic.  The last time it voted Democratic was during 1964 (I have precinct data to back that up, too!).   

[ilikeverin]

Georgetown Charter Township, Ottawa County, Michigan was 75% Romney, while Ottawa County in general was "just" 66% Romney.

[Brittain33]

Found another one: Elk County, Pennsylvania.

While the county was 51 percent Obama in 2008, the largest community, St. Marys, voted for McCain. This is at least partly because the city proper absorbed its township, Benzinger, meaning that it includes a lot of heavily republican rural territory.

St. Marys is the second largest city in Pennsylvania by area.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I haven't systematically looked at all the counties, but the one I notice in Wisconsin for 2012 is Ozaukee. Mequon is a bit more R than the county overall. It was only incorporated in the 50's and doesn't really have a traditional town core, unlike some of the other suburbs.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is true for Campbell County, KY at least in 2008 (and maybe in 2012 too)

Uh, no.

Obama won Newport handily.

[RedSLC]

This is true for Campbell County, KY at least in 2008 (and maybe in 2012 too)

Uh, no.

Obama won Newport handily.

Obama did win Newport, but Newport isn't the largest city in Campbell County - it's Fort Thomas, which as far as I can tell, did actually vote more republican than Campbell County as a whole, at least in 2008.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is true for Campbell County, KY at least in 2008 (and maybe in 2012 too)

Uh, no.

Obama won Newport handily.

Obama did win Newport, but Newport isn't the largest city in Campbell County - it's Fort Thomas, which as far as I can tell, did actually vote more republican than Campbell County as a whole, at least in 2008.

Let's not underestimate just how Republican the southern half of the county is.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The only way Fort Thomas can be more Republican than the county as a whole is if the river cities are much more Democratic than I thought.