States that won't be battlegrounds in the next 20 years

[Orser67]

Which states do you think will not be battleground states in (non-landslide) elections over the next 20 years?

[Del Tachi]

Missouri will become Lean/Likely GOP; whereas Nevada, Virginia, and New Hampshire probably will not be competitive for the Republicans, but those loses will be off-set by GOP gains in PA and the Industrial Midwest.

[Person Man]

Missouri will become Lean/Likely GOP; whereas Nevada, Virginia, and New Hampshire probably will not be competitive for the Republicans, but those loses will be off-set by GOP gains in PA and the "Industrial" Midwest.

fixed. 

The safest bet is that any state west of the Missouri that is 1) predominately Mormon or has fewer than 2 congressional districts and any state south of the Ohio that Obama never broke 43% in that is not Texas.

[ElectionsGuy]

All these states.

[Yogi]

West Virginia

[Sol]

All these states.

I'd say that's right, except I'd make Washington red.

[Orser67]

I'd say that's right, except I'd make Washington red.

Yeah that's the one state that stuck out to me, too. But I guess it also depends on what you consider a non-landslide election.

These are the states that I don't think will ever be the "tipping point state" over the next 20 years. I'm open to persuasion.

[Nichlemn]

I'd say that's right, except I'd make Washington red.

Yeah that's the one state that stuck out to me, too. But I guess it also depends on what you consider a non-landslide election.

These are the states that I don't think will ever be the "tipping point state" over the next 20 years. I'm open to persuasion.

I can't see how Texas becomes a "tipping point" state in the next 20 years. I can see it going Democratic if the "permanent Democratic majority" comes to fruition, but it'll be because the Democrats are winning like 55% consistently and winning Texas with like 52%. It can only be D-leaning if Hispanics remain heavily Democratic, but if they are then Republicans are probably losing heavily all the time.

[Indy Texas]

I don't understand why this forum keeps thinking Mississippi is going to stop being safe R in the future. Even if every single black person in that state voted and 95% voted Democratic, you're still only talking like 35% of the population. And the white people are going to go 85-90% Republican. If you think white people there are going to stop voting that way, you're going to have to explain what would make MS whites stop doing that but not whites in AL, AR, LA, etc.

[Flake]

I don't understand why this forum keeps thinking Mississippi is going to stop being safe R in the future. Even if every single black person in that state voted and 95% voted Democratic, you're still only talking like 35% of the population. And the white people are going to go 85-90% Republican. If you think white people there are going to stop voting that way, you're going to have to explain what would make MS whites stop doing that but not whites in AL, AR, LA, etc.

You're forgetting that the demographic changes and most, if not all, nominees from the Democratic Party over the next 20 years will be white.

[Mr. Illini]

The only ones I can say with relative certainty are locked in...

Who knows what could change in 20 years, though?

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't understand why this forum keeps thinking Mississippi is going to stop being safe R in the future. Even if every single black person in that state voted and 95% voted Democratic, you're still only talking like 35% of the population. And the white people are going to go 85-90% Republican. If you think white people there are going to stop voting that way, you're going to have to explain what would make MS whites stop doing that but not whites in AL, AR, LA, etc.

2 reasons:

1. Black turnout is increasing
2. Black population is increasing

slowly, it could, could transform into a swing state. Who knows? In 15 years Mississippi could be 45% black and that would guarantee like 50% of the vote (assuming whites vote the same).

[Person Man]

The South is really interesting in what could happen there. Perhaps the "solid south" will totally be broken up by 2030 or could simply reassert itself as strong local GOPs and the Democrats eventually settling with making the west competitive and the Midwest solid though there's probably way for that to happen, especially if the Republicans resolidify the South.

[kcguy]

Topics like this make me laugh at the passage of time.

I remember in the '90's trying to decide the tipping point state.  I was torn between Delaware, Kentucky, and Missouri.  I doubt Virginia was even on my radar.

[Non Swing Voter]

I only considered the following states battlegrounds last year: New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado,

Of those - I think Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada are the ones that won't be battlegrounds.  Those will be moderately lean democrat states the same way Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were in 2012... the GOP can make a credible threat but it will be largely ignored.

I think Florida is moving democratic but I have to think the current GOP is going to put all its resources into the state... if that falls off the battleground list, game over for the GOP.

I could actually see Iowa moving off the battleground list in favor of the GOP.  Ohio could also move right. 

I think New Hampshire and North Carolina stay put as battlegrounds for a long long time.  North Carolina is definitely lean right now, but I think it will be pure tossup in 20 years.

[5280]

[Flake]

I have a tough time believing that Georgia and Michigan are going to flip about 10% to the opposite party in 2016.

[Orser67]

I can't see how Texas becomes a "tipping point" state in the next 20 years.

This map actually looks pretty plausible to me as a future close election.

[Rockefeller GOP]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maine is similar to many Southern states except the opposite: it's not a "Blue state" in the way that Rhode Island and Washington and Oregon and Massachusetts are ... a plurality of voters are Independents, and there aren't many more Democrats than there are Republicans.  If the GOP weren't seen as catering to the Religious Right/the South (granted, a very tough situation to change...), then Maine would be a swing state, IMO.

Just as many Southerners who call themselves Democrats vote Republican at the national level, many former Republicans (who are now Independents) up here would vote for what they'd consider a REAL Republican (a.k.a. a moderate) in a heartbeat, but they're very turned off by the influence cultural conservatism has had on the party.  As long as the GOP doesn't reach toward the center on social issues, Maine will likely stay Democratic, but it's not out of the question that it becomes a swing state after a change in the GOP, and I wouldn't put it in the "not going to be a swing state at all in the next 20 years" category.

Another factor is transplants.  To this day, I doubt you'd find a born and raised Vermonter over the age of 40 who'd proudly call themselves a Democrat ... but SO many Massachusettes and New York and Connecticut people have moved there, and the state has gone off the deep end.  Maine has experienced a mini verison of that.  Crazy what's happened to New England AND my party.  It's my living nightmare!

[bedstuy]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maine is similar to many Southern states except the opposite: it's not a "Blue state" in the way that Rhode Island and Washington and Oregon and Massachusetts are ... a plurality of voters are Independents, and there aren't many more Democrats than there are Republicans.  If the GOP weren't seen as catering to the Religious Right/the South (granted, a very tough situation to change...), then Maine would be a swing state, IMO.

Just as many Southerners who call themselves Democrats vote Republican at the national level, many former Republicans (who are now Independents) up here would vote for what they'd consider a REAL Republican (a.k.a. a moderate) in a heartbeat, but they're very turned off by the influence cultural conservatism has had on the party.  As long as the GOP doesn't reach toward the center on social issues, Maine will likely stay Democratic, but it's not out of the question that it becomes a swing state after a change in the GOP, and I wouldn't put it in the "not going to be a swing state at all in the next 20 years" category.

Another factor is transplants.  To this day, I doubt you'd find a born and raised Vermonter over the age of 40 who'd proudly call themselves a Democrat ... but SO many Massachusettes and New York and Connecticut people have moved there, and the state has gone off the deep end.  Maine has experienced a mini verison of that.  Crazy what's happened to New England AND my party.  It's my living nightmare!

Maybe that's true to an extent.  Certainly, it's true that a moderate Republican would be more successful in New England. 

But, let me propose an alternate theory.  The strength of the Republican Party is a religious and racist panic backlash.  Places like Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont are relatively irreligious, so that's out the window.  The other problem is that poor people in rural New England are not scary black/Hispanic people.  If middle class people don't view the poor as immoral, lazy and as the "other," not truly part of their community, egalitarian Democratic party values are more appealing.

[Orser67]

Interesting thoughts on Maine, thanks for sharing.

So if the Dems take the Southwestern and/or Southeastern states, presumably the national Republican Party would be forced to move towards the center, at least in some ways, in order to compete in the Midwest (and/or win over swing voters in the SW and SE). If, in the future, the GOP's electoral strength stems from the Midwest and Interior West, where would the GOP target next?

[GAworth]

Three States I am sure about.
Hawaii
Utah
Maryland

I don't see those changing at all in the 20 years.

[Person Man]

Interesting thoughts on Maine, thanks for sharing.

So if the Dems take the Southwestern and/or Southeastern states, presumably the national Republican Party would be forced to move towards the center, at least in some ways, in order to compete in the Midwest (and/or win over swing voters in the SW and SE). If, in the future, the GOP's electoral strength stems from the Midwest and Interior West, where would the GOP target next?

I guess they would try to solidify the rust belt. This would be enough now. But will it be after the 2040 reapportionment?

[TNF]

West Virginia isn't going to be a safe GOP state unless they manage to turn it into a RTW state.

[Sol]

West Virginia isn't going to be a safe GOP state unless they manage to turn it into a RTW state.

Which, unfortunately, they will certainly do.