States that won't be battlegrounds in the next 20 years

[Orser67]

Which states do you think will not be battleground states in (non-landslide) elections over the next 20 years?

[Orser67]

I'd say that's right, except I'd make Washington red.

Yeah that's the one state that stuck out to me, too. But I guess it also depends on what you consider a non-landslide election.

These are the states that I don't think will ever be the "tipping point state" over the next 20 years. I'm open to persuasion.

[Orser67]

I can't see how Texas becomes a "tipping point" state in the next 20 years.

This map actually looks pretty plausible to me as a future close election.

[Orser67]

Interesting thoughts on Maine, thanks for sharing.

So if the Dems take the Southwestern and/or Southeastern states, presumably the national Republican Party would be forced to move towards the center, at least in some ways, in order to compete in the Midwest (and/or win over swing voters in the SW and SE). If, in the future, the GOP's electoral strength stems from the Midwest and Interior West, where would the GOP target next?

[Orser67]

I think the general theory is that if the Democrats start doing better in the Southwest and/or Southeast, the Republicans will have to do better in the Midwest, which would presumably mean winning more white votes (which I guess would bring Oregon into the GOP column as well).

[Orser67]

It's possible that a) the country continues moving to the left on social issues, b)the Republican Party continues to be a socially conservative party, and c)those positions alienate voters to the point that the GOP can't win the Midwest. I do think that this will be a major issue for the GOP. But we can't just assume the GOP won't be able to adapt, or take for granted that the country will keep moving to the left.