How would the remaining states vote on gay marriage?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

As of now.  Please predict overall results per state, along with a county map.  


To start us off, I would recommend people do some rust belt states (where the gay marriage battle seems to be heading at this point).

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know how to do a county map, but I'll guess the numbers.

Favor/Against.

Pennsylvania: 52/48
Michigan: 51/49
Wisconsin 50/50 (in favor of gay marriage)
Ohio: 49/51
Virginia: 47/53
Indiana: 48/52
Kentucky: 42/58
Tennessee: 40/60
West Virginia: 41/59
North Carolina: 39/61
South Carolina: 34/66
Florida: 45/55
Georgia: 32/68
Alabama: 30/70
Mississippi: 28/72
Louisiana: 31/69
Arkansas: 35/65
Missouri: 44/56
Texas: 40/60
Oklahoma: 37/63
Kansas: 43/57
Nebraska: 45/55
North Dakota: 46/54
South Dakota: 47/53
Montana: 50/50 (in favor of straight marriage)
Wyoming: 43/57
Idaho: 41/59
Utah: 38/62
Colorado: 54/46
New Mexico: 55/45
Arizona: 52/48
Nevada: 53/47
Oregon: 59/41
Alaska: 48/52

Is this all of them?

[Miles]

My state.

66-34 Against, with most of the parishes being in the Against >70% interval.



I could see East Baton Rouge flipping, as a plurality here apparently support SSM, but I feel like the opponents would do a better job with GOTV efforts.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

PA would likely be very close, but if it were today, I'd say 51/49 against.

[TNF]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Maps/percentages pleaz    

[Hifly]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Maps/percentages pleaz    

You make your own map.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Indiana is green because I don't see the proposed anti-SSM amendment passing, but I don't think the state is ready to legalize it yet.

[RedSLC]

Utah would probably be about 62-38 against. In all likelihood, most of the counties would be either >60% or >70% opposed. The two counties here that voted against banning SSM (Summit and Grand Counties) would probably vote in favor. I could also see Salt Lake County flipping as a possibility, since the ban only passed by 8 points here in 2004, but it seems less likely.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

When did Delaware legalize gay marriage?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

When did Delaware legalize gay marriage?

http://pamshouseblend.firedoglake.com/2013/05/07/delaware-becomes-eleventh-state-to-legalize-marriage-equality/

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana is green because I don't see the proposed anti-SSM amendment passing, but I don't think the state is ready to legalize it yet.

It's gonna pass so color it red by at least 57/43 ratio. Tmth would agree with me on this.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Indiana will pass the permaban on gay marriage next November.

[TNF]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Indiana will pass the permaban on gay marriage next November.

I don't think you'll see another state pass a permaban, but I do think that unless the Supreme Court strikes down state level laws and constitutional bans, it's going to be decades before some states change their own laws.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Indiana will pass the permaban on gay marriage next November.

I don't think you'll see another state pass a permaban, but I do think that unless the Supreme Court strikes down state level laws and constitutional bans, it's going to be decades before some states change their own laws.

You'll see states ban it via constitution because Indiana will do so next November. The supremes will not strike another state ban on gay marriage and should restore California's ban as it was directly voted on by the people.

[Indy Texas]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Indiana will pass the permaban on gay marriage next November.

I don't think you'll see another state pass a permaban, but I do think that unless the Supreme Court strikes down state level laws and constitutional bans, it's going to be decades before some states change their own laws.

Lest we forget that in 2000, when Alabama finally got around to getting its ban on interracial marriage formally revoked, 40% of voters voted to keep it in place.

[Yogi]

West Virginia:
- Against Gay Marriage: 61%
- For Gay Marriage: 39%

Is my guess. I'd  be for gay marriage legalization.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Indiana is green because I don't see the proposed anti-SSM amendment passing, but I don't think the state is ready to legalize it yet.

It's gonna pass so color it red by at least 57/43 ratio. Tmth would agree with me on this.

http://www.indystar.com/article/20131113/NEWS05/311130073/Poll-Majority-Hoosiers-oppose-same-sex-marriage-amendment

[RedSLC]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Indiana will pass the permaban on gay marriage next November.

I don't think you'll see another state pass a permaban, but I do think that unless the Supreme Court strikes down state level laws and constitutional bans, it's going to be decades before some states change their own laws.

You'll see states ban it via constitution because Indiana will do so next November. The supremes will not strike another state ban on gay marriage and should restore California's ban as it was directly voted on by the people.

First part: highly doubtful.
Second part: Yeah, that's not going to happen (unless you meant that's what you want them to do, in which case, you should clarify). Even if it did happen, I'm very willing to bet that the people of California would pass a new proposition to officially repeal this (which they can actually do now, if I'm not mistaken).

[ElectionsGuy]

Most of the remaining states would vote it down.

Indiana will pass the permaban on gay marriage next November.

I don't think you'll see another state pass a permaban, but I do think that unless the Supreme Court strikes down state level laws and constitutional bans, it's going to be decades before some states change their own laws.

You'll see states ban it via constitution because Indiana will do so next November. The supremes will not strike another state ban on gay marriage and should restore California's ban as it was directly voted on by the people.

California would be against the ban if it voted in recent times anyway, and I don't think Indiana will be ultimately be for this ban, it will probably be quite close.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Took a shot at a few states:





Green=for

Red=against 

[JerryArkansas]

Green=for

Red=against 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Any bets on what a Virginia map would look like?  I think it'd look pretty similar to the 2013 gubernatorial race.

[RedSLC]

My map for the states on a vote to legalize SSM:

-States where SSM is already legal and no anti-SSM ballot measure was passed uncolored.
-I've included California because even though SSM is now legal there, Proposition 8 is technically still on the book (though it can't be enforced), and in theory, it could still be repealed via statewide ballot initiative.
-Although I have Florida as in favor, a >50% vote would not legalize SSM, as a vote of 60% or greater is now required to pass ballot initiatives.

[TDAS04]

With percent voting in support of SSM:

Alabama:  29
Alaska:  49
Arizona:  54
Arkansas:  34
Colorado:  59
Florida:  47
Georgia:  36
Idaho:  41
Indiana:  42
Kansas:  39
Kentucky:  36
Louisiana:  34
Michigan:  53
Mississippi:  26
Missouri:  42
Montana:  48
Nebraska:  41
Nevada:  57
New Mexico:  54
North Carolina:  39
North Dakota:  40
Ohio:  48
Oklahoma:  32
Oregon:  61
Pennsylvania:  54
South Carolina:  34
South Dakota:  42
Tennessee:  34
Texas:  36
Utah:  35
Virginia:  49
West Virginia:  37
Wisconsin:  55
Wyoming:  42