AR-Sen, Citizens United: Cotton in the lead
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  AR-Sen, Citizens United: Cotton in the lead
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Author Topic: AR-Sen, Citizens United: Cotton in the lead  (Read 2237 times)
krazen1211
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« on: December 09, 2013, 08:54:21 PM »

Link


Cotton 48
Pryor 41


Great news! Time for a Blanche Lincoln style thrashing.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2013, 08:56:04 PM »

Citizens United?  Oh, okay.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2013, 09:03:38 PM »

The crosstabs are very similar to UA and PPP, so not entirely useless. Still a quasi-internal and should be treated as such. Only thing that jumps out is Pryor's favorability, since UA has it at -8 and this one says +5. Of course that doesn't mean much when PVI kicks in, as Scott Brown can attest.
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2013, 09:34:56 PM »

It's Citizens United, so I'm throwing this in the trash.

I think Cotton is leading though.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2013, 10:11:26 PM »

My guess is Cotton +5

Numbers more 47-42 ish

I'd like to see Pryor's approvals as well on the actual poll...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2013, 10:26:33 PM »

He's at 44/39 favorable, FWIW.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2013, 10:29:08 PM »

I doubt Pryor will get Blanched but this is looking very good.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2013, 10:58:00 PM »

Cotton is at 64% name ID to Pryor's 88%. Equalize that and Cotton's probably north of 50, combined with the huge Indie lead. I'd expect to see a real poll showing that in the spring.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2013, 11:02:13 PM »

As ambivalent as I am about Cotton, I'm pleased with the results thus far. Let's hope the campaign goes right.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2013, 11:56:35 PM »

Crap poll, but I'd still put my money on Cotton at this point.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2013, 11:58:03 PM »

Crap poll, but I'd still put my money on Cotton at this point.

The numbers look accurate, Obama's approval and all.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2013, 02:59:25 AM »

This is great. Time for Arkansas to finally abandon its original democratic roots. Another poll like this (5+ lead) and I might start calling this in Cotton's favor.
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windjammer
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« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2013, 04:00:52 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2013, 04:11:31 AM by MW Archduke windjammer »

Cotton is probably leading, but not by 7.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2013, 04:46:01 AM »

This is the same pollster ("Polling Company") that had Pryor leading by 2 in August.

The same poll in Arkansas had Hillary leading Christie by 2 as well in this poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=177623.0
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windjammer
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« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2013, 04:56:20 AM »

Well, bad news for Pryor.
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Conflicted Progressive
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« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2013, 11:12:46 AM »

Pryor is likely to lose, but we knew that and it won't be a Lincoln-size loss. I'm guessing no more than 10 points in the end.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2013, 02:59:45 PM »

It oversampled Independents and Reps, under Dems.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2013, 03:15:14 PM »

At one point this year, I thought Pryor would run like Landrieu is: on his record. He's running a terrible campaign. He's just being a moderate hero. If he wants to win, he needs to run as a populist. He can be moderate, but don't just be moderate for moderation's sake. Honestly, he deserves to lose.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2013, 12:25:21 AM »

At one point this year, I thought Pryor would run like Landrieu is: on his record. He's running a terrible campaign. He's just being a moderate hero. If he wants to win, he needs to run as a populist. He can be moderate, but don't just be moderate for moderation's sake. Honestly, he deserves to lose.

I know we're in the 24/7 365 days a year campaign cycle, but really? Nobody is paying attention at this point besides political junkies, so Pryor's campaign means nothing at this point.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #19 on: December 23, 2013, 04:41:48 PM »

Pryor is likely to lose, but we knew that and it won't be a Lincoln-size loss. I'm guessing no more than 10 points in the end.
I agree with you. I think that the final results will be 51% of the vote for Cotton, 45% for Pryor and 4% for the Green Party candidate.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #20 on: December 23, 2013, 05:01:35 PM »

Poll itself isn't worthwhile, but this is definitely Lean R at this point.
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