Clinton/Klobuchar vs. Walker/Martinez

[henster]

Who wins? Walker runs and upstages Christie in primaries and Clinton picks Klobuchar to hold down the Midwest.

[pbrower2a]

Scott Walker is the proverbial bull in the china shop. He becomes the GOP mirror image of Mike Dukakis.

[henster]

If Walker survives 2014 I think he will eventually become the establishment choice. He's conservative enough to please Tea Party types and not crazy enough to offend establishment types. Walker is far more viable candidate than Christie is and is ten times more likely to survive the primaries he's a dark horse to watch out for.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Walker/Martinez is one of my favourite hypothetical 2016 tickets!

Sadly, they'd probably lose to Clinton/Klobuchar

I can see this being a possibility for a narrow Clinton win (273-265):

And a narrow Walker win (289-249):

Clinton's ceiling (347-191):

Walker's ceiling (343-195):

[Mister Mets]

I'll put states in different categories based on how likely I think it is that it'll go for a particular ticket. Either ticket can win under the right circumstances, or lose bigger than McCain in 2008.

The risk with a Clinton/ Klobuchar ticket is that having two women doesn't disguise the fact that Clinton will have been a national figure for 25 years, and that Klobuchar will have been in Congress for ten, which can be problematic in a change election. It might also seem a bit radical, although it could also increase the chances of prominent Republicans saying something stupid that engenders a backlash.

Walker will have presumably won three statewide elections in a crucial swing state (whereas Hillary's last general election was in 2006) although it'll be his first go at a national campaign, and Governors are often less informed about national issues. Walker's lack of a college degree could make those types of problems especially damaging, but it can also be painted as the establishment picking on an outsider.

Walker being from Wisconsin is probably worth 2-3 points there. Martinez could be worth 4-5 points in New Mexico (it's a smaller state, so historically the favorite son gets more of a boost.)

Safe Democrat
Washington DC, Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts, California, Maine's first congressional district

Likely Democrat
Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Most of Maine, Washington, Oregon

Leaning Democratic
Minnesota, Michigan

Toss-Up (Democratic Leaning)
Nevada, Iowa

Toss-Up (Republican Leaning)
Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Leaning Republican
North Carolina, Florida, Ohio

Likely Republican
Nebraska's second congressional district, South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia

Safe Republican
Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Most of Nebraska, Kansas, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Texas, Alaska, Montana, Mississippi

This is how I'd see the default map, which might come with Walker winning the popular vote by three.

[Flake]

You are all forgetting this is Hillary Clinton.

[pbrower2a]

You are all forgetting this is Hillary Clinton.

(She will not win Montana and she will not lose New Mexico).

[Sec. of State Superique]

I think that the Northeast as a whole would go for Clinton. Walker hates labor unions and would be the equivalent of Maggie Thatcher to the unionized workers of the United States. Huge turnout of teachers, coal miners and other members of the AFL-CIO to destroy the Walker Campaign. Furthermore, what I've learned from this forum is that, although Wisconsin is a swing state, it usually goes for the Democrats because of higher turnout of progressive voters, minorities and women. Hence, I don't think that Wisconsin will flip in 2016.

[Brewer]

I think that the Northeast as a whole would go for Clinton. Walker hates labor unions and would be the equivalent of Maggie Thatcher to the unionized workers of the United States. Huge turnout of teachers, coal miners and other members of the AFL-CIO to destroy the Walker Campaign. Furthermore, what I've learned from this forum is that, although Wisconsin is a swing state, it usually goes for the Democrats because of higher turnout of progressive voters, minorities and women. Hence, I don't think that Wisconsin will flip in 2016.

This. All of this.

[pbrower2a]

Walker has no fear of offending people who have no chance of voting for him, indeed baiting such people to throw read meat to those sure to vote for him. Such is a pattern for the Right within the GOP.

[free my dawg]

If you believe that Scott Walker is going to win a state with one of the strongest union bases in the country, then I have a bridge to sell you.

Nominating the most polarizing figure in labor right now will kill your chances in PA and reverse the progress your party has made in Coal Country, especially since Clinton's picking a moderate here.

Walker ceiling:

300-238 Walker. His path to victory is normal: campaign in the parts of Coal Country where unions are weak, go to the Midwest, and do a bit here and there in Nevada and New Mexico. Colorado will be more receptive to Walker and Martinez already, so they're good there. Virginia is a must-win

Clinton ceiling:

Backlash against Walker is strong here, good economy, all that jazz. Clinton moderates on energy too and brings KY back into the Democratic fold. Same old bullmess with MO, and NC is just trend. But enough with the wank:

My projected result:

289-249 Clinton. West Virginia's my bold prediction: union backlash is very strong and winds up halting some of the progress the Republicans have made here. Overall, this matchup Leans Hillary, and Walker could very well blow Coal Country for Republicans in 2016 if he's the nominee against her (and only her).

[Brewer]

How is Amy Klobuchar a moderate?

[Mister Mets]

If you believe that Scott Walker is going to win a state with one of the strongest union bases in the country, then I have a bridge to sell you.

Nominating the most polarizing figure in labor right now will kill your chances in PA and reverse the progress your party has made in Coal Country, especially since Clinton's picking a moderate here.

Walker ceiling:

300-238 Walker. His path to victory is normal: campaign in the parts of Coal Country where unions are weak, go to the Midwest, and do a bit here and there in Nevada and New Mexico. Colorado will be more receptive to Walker and Martinez already, so they're good there. Virginia is a must-win

Clinton ceiling:

Backlash against Walker is strong here, good economy, all that jazz. Clinton moderates on energy too and brings KY back into the Democratic fold. Same old bullmess with MO, and NC is just trend. But enough with the wank:

My projected result:

289-249 Clinton. West Virginia's my bold prediction: union backlash is very strong and winds up halting some of the progress the Republicans have made here. Overall, this matchup Leans Hillary, and Walker could very well blow Coal Country for Republicans in 2016 if he's the nominee against her (and only her).

We may have different definitions of "moderate" but I see no indication that Klobuchar is remarkable among statewide officholders.

I think it would also be a poor move for Hillary Clinton to pick another woman as a running mate. That makes it easy to caricaturize the ticket as consisting of two radical feminists. This may backfire for Republicans, but it's a fight worth avoiding.

The unions are also declining in Pennsylvania.

http://www.bls.gov/ro3/unionpa.htm

[free my dawg]

Saying that unions won't have a big effect shows a huge lack of knowledge of how PA works. Unions are alive and well in Pennsylvania, and they still have a large amount of influence over the state. They've stopped liquor privatization (which would screw over about 5k union jobs) and the pension reform, two of Corbett's three main platforms. And with Corbett's likely defeat next year, they're most likely going to at least break even in the future. Busting up unions simply isn't a high priority down in the PAGOP like it is in Ohio or Wisconsin.

[daveosupremo]

This would probably be the strongest ticket for both parties.  A Klobuchar VP spot would largely offset Walker's Midwest appeal, and an all female ticket would be a big draw for a lot of young and progressive Democratic voters who are otherwise turned off by Clinton.
Walker would be smart to pick Martinez as a nod to Hispanic voters, while still maintaining his reputation for pragmatism. Hispanics will vote for the right GOP candidate. Bush got over 44% 2004. As long as the eventual nominee doesn't talk about self deportation, he'll do much better than Romney's 27%. He won't get 50%, but he doesn't need 50%. She's also a very different type of governor and appeals to a different type of Republican.
I believe Walker/Martinez would do much better in the rust belt than some of these other maps suggest. His policies haven't been anti Union, they've been anti public sector Union. He has not tried to make Wisconsin a right to work state, and had effectively the same policies as FDR in relation to unions. A focus on revitalizing the coal industry and manufacturing will be a staple of his campaign and will likely play well there.

[BaconBacon96]

No. Two women on ticket won't happen.

[MurrayBannerman]

This would probably be the strongest ticket for both parties.  A Klobuchar VP spot would largely offset Walker's Midwest appeal, and an all female ticket would be a big draw for a lot of young and progressive Democratic voters who are otherwise turned off by Clinton.
Walker would be smart to pick Martinez as a nod to Hispanic voters, while still maintaining his reputation for pragmatism. Hispanics will vote for the right GOP candidate. Bush got over 44% 2004. As long as the eventual nominee doesn't talk about self deportation, he'll do much better than Romney's 27%. He won't get 50%, but he doesn't need 50%. She's also a very different type of governor and appeals to a different type of Republican.
I believe Walker/Martinez would do much better in the rust belt than some of these other maps suggest. His policies haven't been anti Union, they've been anti public sector Union. He has not tried to make Wisconsin a right to work state, and had effectively the same policies as FDR in relation to unions. A focus on revitalizing the coal industry and manufacturing will be a staple of his campaign and will likely play well there.

If we crack 40% with the Hispanic vote, we'll win the election.